Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Brownsville, TX

103 
WWUS54 KBRO 052338
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

TXC505-060000-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-120806T0000Z/
ZAPATA-
638 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY...

AT 637 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN YGNACIO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 
10 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 
MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING CONTINUE TO INCLUDE...SAN YGNACIO...AND 
HIGHWAY 83 NEAR SAN YGNACIO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2708 9944 2709 9944 2710 9942 2708 9937
      2701 9938 2700 9941 2701 9942 2701 9943
      2702 9945 2705 9945 2707 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 120DEG 9KT 2705 9946

$$

JGG

129 
WWUS54 KBRO 052353
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

TXC505-060002-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-120806T0000Z/
ZAPATA-
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED WEST OF THE RIVER AND 
LEFT THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE. LIGHTNING AND PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE 
THROUGH 730 PM NEAR SAN YGNACIO.


LAT...LON 2708 9944 2709 9944 2710 9942 2708 9937
      2701 9938 2700 9941 2701 9942 2701 9943
      2702 9945 2705 9945 2707 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 120DEG 9KT 2707 9950

$$

JGG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
616 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SLACKEN. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK
UP TOMORROW AROUND 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...AN ELONGATED RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE WEST AS TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER CRP AND THE GULF. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER THE
COASTLINE OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEFT INHERITED POPS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AS IS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE TEXAS
BORDER LINE IN THE 80S. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST WITH THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF
MOVING INLAND MONDAY. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
INLAND WITH NAM12 PWATS VALUES INCREASING UP TO 2.2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM TO
INITIATE MONDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES INTO THE GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL GIVE A LITTLE BREAK TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
LAST WEEK BUT STILL TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 90S. EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE FAR WESTERN BORDER WHICH WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 100S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEABREEZE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ERNESTO MAKES ITS WAY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING
ERNESTO WESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EASTERN MEXICO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES PREVAILS. WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
BRINGING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE FRI MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
ERNESTO MOVES WESTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH TOMORROW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE ERRATIC WINDS AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS
CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SE FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. EVEN THEN...LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNLESS ERNESTO
TRACKS FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. SOME SWELLS MIGHT BUILD
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
439 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

TXZ248>257-061100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
439 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-061100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
439 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
OR BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS IS
LIKELY TO BE HIGHER SEAS OR SWELLS AT OR ABOVE 7 FEET. WINDS TO BE
LESSOR IMPACT WITH THE CURRENT MORE SOUTHERN TRACK EAST WINDS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

TXZ250-253-052145-
HIDALGO-BROOKS-
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BROOKS AND NORTHERN
HIDALGO COUNTY...

AT 359 PM...RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
ENCINO...TO NEAR DOLITTLE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. LOCATIONS SUCH AS
RACHAL...MONTE ALTO...LA VILLA AND HARGILL WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A QUICK BURST OF
HEAVY RAIN...A FEW AREAS MAY SEE SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND UP TO 45 MPH.

JGG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
416 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

TXZ252-052200-
STARR-
416 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY...

AT 415 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 6
MILES EAST OF SANTA ELENA. SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH NEAR SANTA ELENA AND SANTA CATARINA.

JGG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
558 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

TXZ248-052330-
ZAPATA-
558 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY...

AT 558 PM...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN
ZAPATA...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 45 OR 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS STORM.

JGG