Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Brownsville, TX

011 
WWUS54 KBRO 081709
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

TXC505-081730-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-120508T1730Z/
ZAPATA-
1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY...

AT 1208 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAN YGNACIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 
20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAS PALMAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
  GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE.
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2708 9944 2715 9945 2719 9943 2729 9940
      2722 9898 2681 9925 2686 9929 2687 9933
      2691 9933 2694 9939 2697 9940 2698 9939
      2701 9942 2701 9943 2702 9945 2707 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 293DEG 18KT 2707 9943

$$

67

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...PROCESSING UPDATES ATTM FOR ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WATCH FOR UPPER VALLEY AND NORTHERN CWA ZONES. CELLS
ALREADY FORMING JUST TO THE WEST OF ZAPATA COUNTY WITH GENERALLY
EASTWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...POSTED UPDATE TO INCREASE POP CHANCES TODAY AND TO
INTRODUCE SVR WORDING INTO WESTERN VALLEY FOR POSSIBILITY OF SVR
ARRIVING BEFORE SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL STILL LOOK LIKE
THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH CLOUDINESS
RISING TO 4000 FEET WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS. AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS CLOUD
DECKS FALL AND WINDS DIMINISH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND MOVE EAST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONGOING PATTERN OF DRY
WEATHER WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO
REMAINS EXTENDED OVER OUR REGION FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS. TONIGHT...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE...AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION
CENTER MENTIONS THE FRONT AND A LAUNDRY LIST OF OTHER FACTORS
THAT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
FEATURING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH ZAPATA AND
SLIVERS OF JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTY CURRENTLY IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR TONIGHT SINCE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MENTIONS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OVER
NEIGHBORING MEXICO BEFORE PROPAGATING EAST. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
CLOSE BY IF NOT OVERHEAD. SUCCESSIVE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER...IN PART...
TO DETERMINE IF MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN BRO CWFA FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE PERSISTENT
THEME OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH COMBINING TO
GIVE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY A RAIN EVENT HAS
NOT CHANGED. THE FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HEAVY RAINING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTH FROM MEXICO. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE OVER ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NEARS AND MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY WILL YIELD AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
AND TROUGH ALOFT WANES. A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE SATURDAY AND WILL INTRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS WHILE
STARTING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OR A
RIDGE UPSTREAM. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND BEYOND...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 8 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
2.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. GENERALLY
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS...FEATURING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...FEATURING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER LAND AREAS...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH WILL
TRANSLATE OUT OVER THE WATER. THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND OUT IN THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND MOST LIKELY INTENSITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE H5
LOW MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE MOST INTENSE
WEATHER WILL BE ON FRIDAY GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE GFS SHOWS
THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLONIC
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH A MARINE TROUGH SITUATED WELL
OFFSHORE. THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH BUILDING SEAS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
THE MARINE FORECAST,

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

TXZ248>253-091700-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA...JIM
HOGG...BROOKS...KENEDY...STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES THROUGH 7PM.
MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

GMZ130-132-150-170-175-091700-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS... ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MARINERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVATIONS OF LARGE HAIL OR WIND
DAMAGE TO THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

TXZ254>257-091700-
INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS... ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

GMZ135-155-091700-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SHORE TO 20
NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THROUGH 7PM. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF
PADRE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MARINERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVATIONS OF LARGE HAIL OR WIND
DAMAGE TO THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.