Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THROUGH MID
WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417 IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN MA AND N CT
UNTIL 9 PM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...LESS THAN 30
KT...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL BUT INSTABILITY IS
ROBUST WITH MLCAPES 2000 J/KG POKING INTO W NEW ENG. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND INVERTED V SOUNDING
PROFILE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING
WIND THE MAIN SEVERE WX THREAT. LARGE HAIL ALSO A THREAT AND ANY
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN HIGH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2". FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE A CONCERN
IF STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR THEN MAIN ACTION WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN
TONIGHT INVOF OF DEEP LAYER THETA-E RIDGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS NEAR THE COAST. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SFC INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SLIGHT
MID LEVEL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS TO PERSIST AS THEY MOVE EAST. A FEW STRONG TSTMS
POSSIBLE...BUT MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ISOLD FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE TRAINING CELLS ALONG
SLOW MOVING/STALLED BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NEW ENG COAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COOLING
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL TSTMS
TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY AREA WILL BE EAST OF CT VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT. THUS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS IF STORMS CAN FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXPCEPT 70S HIGHER TERRAIN AND E COASTAL MA WHERE SEABREEZES
LIKELY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A LEFTOVER SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE COAST SAT
EVENING...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AS FRONT FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

* FANTASTIC SUNDAY
* INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

AM MORE CONFIDENT OF A DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING AND
SFC HIGH PRES /ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/ COUPLED WITH A MID-LVL DRY PUNCH
IN WAKE OF SATURDAYS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET UNDER LIGHT
W/NWLY FLOW. EXPECTING PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE. ALSO ANTICIPATING A
REMNANT COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT AND WELL-MIXED LOW-LVLS RESULTING IN
MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S /PERHAPS SOME GUSTS 10 TO 15 MPH/.

FOCUS PERTAINS MORESO TO THE LATE EVNG PD AS SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD AROUND THE BROADER MID-UPR LVL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN WILL
INVIGORATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT INTO THE NY
HUDSON RVR VLY. THE BEGINNING STAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-MID LVL SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAK /LESSER ON PWATS/...SO WILL
RETRACT PRIOR THINKING OF HEAVY RAIN AND GO WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. THERE ARE HINTS OF MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SHEAR. THE SFC COLD FRNT AND BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE W OF THE AREA. BUT DURING A NOCTURNAL
PD...NOT CONFIDENT ON THUNDERSTORMS INTO MON MORN.

WLY FLOW BECOMING S/SWLY...INCREASING CLOUDS...STAYING MILD
OVRNGT. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WARRANTED WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT RGN OF THE
JET AXIS ROUNDING THE BROADER TROF AND USHERING DECENT UPR LVL
DIFLUENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE DAY
* IMPROVING OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING

SFC COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN MAINLY DURING THE DAY. WHILE DEEP
LYR FORCING IS APPARENT...THERE ARE A FEW UNDERLYING QUESTIONS
CONCERNING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRNT BY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. THE SPEED AT WHICH THE MAIN SHRTWV ENERGY AND
CLOSED LOW DIVING SEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY SHUNT THE BETTER SUB-
TROPICAL MOIST AXIS AND DYNAMICS NORTH AND OFFSHORE. THESE ARE
QUESTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...BUT FEEL
DURING THE DAY ITS A SAFE BET FOR A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SCTD
THUNDERSTORMS /PSBLY SEVERE/ GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF THE FCST RGN
OVRNGT.

MID-LVL DRY PUNCH FOLLOWS TO THE REAR OF THE LIFTING COLD FRNT AND
OCCLUDING SYS INTO THE S HUDSON BAY RGN. WHILE SHOWERS LINGER FOR
THE ERN AREA TO AROUND MIDNIGHT...ANTICIPATING A GRADUAL CLEARING
INTO TUE MORN UNDER W/NWLY FLOW.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

* OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
* CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ACTS TO BLOCK THE MARITIME
FLOW. AFOREMENTIONED STRONG CLOSED LOW OCCLUDES ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VLY. AS HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR ENTRAINS TO THE REAR OF THE
OCCLUSION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING /WELL-MIXED LOW-LVLS/ AND
MOISTURE WRAPPING THRU THE OCCLUSION WILL LEND TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN/WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

WILL INVOKE CHC POPS MAINLY FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. UNDER A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIRMASS...
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE LVLS. OF INTERESTING NOTE...H5
TEMPS DIFFER SLGTLY AMONGST LONG-TERM FCST GUIDANCE...COOLER VALUES
INVOKE THE POSSIBILITY OF INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

* AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE OCCLUDED LOW

DETERMINISTIC LONG-RANGE FCST GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LIFTING OCCLUSION SUBSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED BY SHRTWV ENERGY AND
ATTENDANT TROF AXIS ROTATING THRU THE FCST RGN. WHILE FRI LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY...THERE STANDS THE CHC OF ANOTHER SYNOPTIC WET WX SYS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING SAT
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING SAT NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. WE HAVE A WEAK
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SAT. HOWEVER...MAY TO SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS. WLY FLOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRNT WITH SHRA/TSRA...OFFSHORE BY MON EVNG. ANTICIPATING CIG
AND VSBY IMPACTS DOWN TO IFR /ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
PSBL STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER RAINS...GUSTY WINDS ALSO PSBL/.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH LIFTING CIGS MON NGT. SLY WINDS BACKING OUT
OF THE NW WITH COLD FRNT PASSAGE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DAYTIME DRIVEN SHRA AND PSBL TSRA. INTERMITTENT IMPACTS AT TERMINALS
MVFR-IFR/. MUCH OF THE FCST PD...PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING TONIGHT. ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCT TSTMS
DEVELOPING SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR MUCH OF THE PD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS MON INTO MON
NGT. THE BETTER CHC FOR WINDS AND SEAS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADV
WILL BE DURING THE SUNDAY NGT INTO MON NGT TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SLY
FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

BOSTON - 97 SET IN 1983

PROVIDENCE - 96 SET IN 1941

HARTFORD - 95 SET IN 1921

WORCESTER - 91 SET IN 1941

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
506 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

CTZ004-RIZ001>005-222200-
BRISTOL RI-EASTERN KENT RI-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST
PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-WINDHAM CT-
506 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

AT 501 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL 8 MILES WEST OF COVENTRY...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF
PLAINFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...FOSTER...COVENTRY...SCITUATE...
  GLOCESTER...CRANSTON...SMITHFIELD...JOHNSTON...NORTH SMITHFIELD...
  NORTH PROVIDENCE...PROVIDENCE...LINCOLN AND CUMBERLAND.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS STORM WAS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW! IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES AND BALL FIELDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7180 4191 7181 4200 7147 4175 7134

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
549 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NHZ011-222245-
CHESHIRE NH-
549 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

AT 548 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEENE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MARLBOROUGH...SULLIVAN...
  ROXBURY...NELSON AND HARRISVILLE.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 7207 4285 7207 4288 7231 4300 7234

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>