Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AFTERWORDS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALLOWING FOR
MILDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
FOG/STRATUS IS LIFTING/BREAKING ON SCHEDULE. TWO ZONES OF CLOUDS
LATE MORNING. ONE IN EASTERN MASS HAS MAINLY BEEN STRATUS. THE
SECOND WAS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MASS AND IS A MIX OF
STRATUS AND ALTOCU. MOSTLY SUNNY IN BETWEEN.

MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW LI/S BELOW ZERO/TOTALS 45-50/WET BULB ZERO
AROUND 7100 FEET. THIS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT WBZ A LITTLE
HIGHER. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN PLACE...EXPECT INLAND
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S /70-75/ WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. WE HAVE TRIMMED LATE MORNING POPS FROM
THE EARLY FORECAST BUT MAINTAINED AFTERNOON VALUES ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST...WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS THERE.

EARLY DISCUSSION...
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A MID LEVEL
LOW ROTATING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE WE HAD
YESTERDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WE
SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. NOT THINKING FOG WILL BE AS PREVALENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING INTERESTING FROM A CONVECTION STANDPOINT. STILL
DEALING WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH A STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST
JET SLATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHER
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN WHAT WE
HAVE HAD WEDNESDAY AND TODAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THE TIMING OF THESE STRONGER WINDS AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES ON THE INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
* SHOWERY WX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL START OF THE WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MID WEEK AS THERE
ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

DETAILS...

MODELS/PATTERN...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE DEVIATING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS. THIS
PLACES LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO CLUSTER FOR THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN ON THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE...WITH ITS AXIS CROSS NEW ENGLAND
BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING A COLD
FRONT BY MID WEEK. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS 850 JET MAX
PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL WANE
AFTER SUNSET BELIEVE THE JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND MODEST
LAPS RATES REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION. INSERT THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PER
SAID REASONING.

WEEKEND SHOWERS ARE STILL A QUESTION AS MODELS DIFFER ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERY WX EITHER SAT OR SUN. MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION PER BUILDING OF THE RIDGE.
DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THE WORK WEEK...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND HPC ALL AGREE WITH RIDGING OCCURRING AT THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL UP TIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN AROUND THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE STILL ON EXACT
TIMING...BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY DYNAMIC SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THUNDER MENTIONING.
HIGHLIGHTS...

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH PERIOD...MAINLY FOR TIMING
OF FOG DISSIPATION THIS MORNING.  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS. PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NEAR SHORE SEABREEZES DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
FOG WILL LIFT WITHIN THE HOUR. MAINLY VFR. SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY 07/14Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS.

MON INTO TUES...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT
RESPECTIVELY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT
VSBYS AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS ON SAT NIGHT IMPACTING VSBYS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE BELOW SCA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-080830-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
418 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-080830-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
418 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

MAZ005>007-071800-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
102 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

AT 1257 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING UP TO HALF INCH HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF
GROVELAND...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF LAWRENCE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BOXFORD...TOPSFIELD...
  MIDDLETON...HAMILTON...WENHAM AND BEVERLY.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THESE STORMS APPROACH. THESE STORMS
MAY STRENGTHEN AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 7097 4255 7081 4260 7110 4275 7109

SIPPRELL