Special Marine Warning 56, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
844 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TO THE REGION INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

840 PM UPDATE...
POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT CONTINUED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT MID
EVENING...DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  WE DO EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO FINALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NORTH...ELIMINATING THE
REMAINING INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA...TO MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WED...

A GEM OF A DAY AND PROBABLY THE PICK OF THE WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A REFRESHING NNW WIND UP TO 25 MPH DURING
THE MORNING WILL EASE IN THE AFTN. 850 TEMPS AROUND +11C COMBINED
WITH MIXING TO 800 MB ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH NNW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
* ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
* POSSIBLE CLEARING AND IMPROVING WEATHER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK

DETAILS...

MODELS/PATTERN...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...MINUS A FEW MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF...ESP INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH IT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIGHT BEHIND IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT RIDGING BY FRIDAY AM FOLLOW BY
STOUT TROUGH OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
DRY FORECAST TO START...HOWEVER MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEST TIMING FOR
SNE WOULD BE AROUND 12Z. STILL PLENTY OF TIMING WITH THIS SCENARIO
AS THE GFS BRING THIS MCS FARTHER NORTHERN ACROSS S VT/S NH/AND NE
MA. THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING THE MCS ACROSS N CT/RI/AND MA. GOOD
AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LLJ WILL STREAM LINE THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER NOT A
LOT OF INSTABILITY PER MODELS. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS AS ML CAPE REACHES NEAR 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEARS 50 KTS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO LINE UP FOR AN ACTIVE
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
LINGERING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL STALL OVER SNE ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PUSHING THE
LOW OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER A TROUGH
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST DAY FOR NO SHOWERS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE IT OUT.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS HIGH
TEMPS WITH MID TO LOWER 60S AS MIN TEMPS. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY WILL BE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE MAKING IT QUITE MUGGY/HUMID.

DID A BLEND OF HPC/ECMWF/AND NAM FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST.

NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STORMS MAY LINGER TIL 03Z CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. A FEW STORMS
WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NNW WINDS PROVIDING GOOD VSBYS.
VFR AGAIN WED WITH A DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR TONIGHT AND WED WITH A GUSTY NNW.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH WED WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH PSBL MVFR-
IFR IMPACTS. TSRA MAY BE SEVERE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL
10-11 PM THEN MOVING WELL OUT TO SEA. GUSTY NNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS BEGINNING 11 PM AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

WED...
NNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT THEN DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
VSBY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATING SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS AS LOW
PRES DRAPES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. WINDS MAY WAVER...WHILE
REMAINING LIGHT. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALONG THIS COLD FRONT EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ON AGAIN
OFF AGAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-252330-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
717 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-252330-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
717 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
849 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

CTZ004-MAZ012-RIZ001-002-250130-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN WORCESTER
MA-WINDHAM CT-
849 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AT 844 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL 4 MILES WEST OF BURRILLVILLE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PUTNAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BURRILLVILLE...FOSTER...
  GLOCESTER...SMITHFIELD...SCITUATE AND NORTH PROVIDENCE.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES. MINOR STREET FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4185 7140 4174 7169 4195 7192 4207 7177

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MAZ020-022-023-RIZ001>007-250215-
BARNSTABLE MA-BRISTOL RI-DUKES MA-EASTERN KENT RI-NEWPORT
RI-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL
MA-WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
928 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AT 923 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL OVER WEST WARWICK...OR ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF
WARWICK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...EAST GREENWICH...BRISTOL...NORTH
  KINGSTOWN...PRUDENCE ISLAND...PORTSMOUTH...JAMESTOWN...NEWPORT AND
  LITTLE COMPTON.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES. MINOR STREET FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7107 4145 7120 4154 7122 4147 7124
      4145 7140 4149 7141 4147 7141 4167 7167
      4186 7149 4170 7127 4165 7124 4166 7122
      4151 7100 4149 7103 4144 7091 4147 7100
      4143 7095 4142 7088 4140 7095

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
936 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MAZ018-019-022-250215-
BARNSTABLE MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
936 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AT 932 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF PEMBROKE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PLYMOUTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...DUXBURY...KINGSTON AND PLYMOUTH.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES. MINOR STREET FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7060 4208 7091 4218 7081 4207 7064
      4201 7060 4200 7060 4199 7063 4204 7065
      4200 7067 4200 7070 4197 7066 4199 7065
      4195 7062 4196 7058 4193 7053 4179 7052

FRANK

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