Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH THIS WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY
THIS EVENING.  DESPITE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...A PRETTY POTENT
SHORTWAVE IS ALLOWING FOR THESE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.  THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ALLOWING FOR BRIEF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE BRIEF WIND GUSTS.  MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WARMER MAV LOWS WERE CONSIDERING THE BETTER
MIXING EXPECTED MITIGATING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LESS CLOUDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA FOR
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL STEEP TO START WITH CENTER OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN ONTARIO. THEREFORE
EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO START OUT BUT LOWERING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN BY THAT TIME. LOW TO MID LEVEL RH DROPS THROUGH THE
DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR UP LATER IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. LOOKING AT TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...WARMER MAVS
WERE BETTER MATCHING OBS SO USED MAVS PRIMARILY AGAIN FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY. AGAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS STAY UP SO USED A BLEND OF
MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MITIGATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE MS VLY DAMPENS OUT WHILE TRANSLATING EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CLOSING OFF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO
SUN...THEN RETROGRADING THE CLOSED LOW BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER AND OCCLUDED SURFACE LOWS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A DEEP-LAYERED W/NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
MAINTAIN...DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OR JUST
BELOW SEASONABLE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUN INTO TUE
WITH A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WITH THE RETROGRADING LOW...BUT LARGELY A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN ADDITION...BRIEF WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN ANY SHOWER.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...BUT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS COME BACK THURSDAY
MORNING 20-25 KT AND LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 2Z THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING EACH
DAY...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CU TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WIND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. HIGHEST GUSTS THIS EVENING
NEARSHORE AND EXTENDING FARTHER OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY WITH FREQUENCY OF GUSTS
IN THE MORNING SO LEFT OUT SCA FOR NOW. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS...AND LOW
PRESSURE PASSES EAST. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO THE NORTH
OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

GENERALLY EXPECT SUB SCA CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CONDITIONS DO APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OBS STILL SHOW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH AS WELL AS LOW RH BELOW 30
PERCENT. THUS...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE HEADLINE
AREA COVERS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT DOES NOT INCLUDE CAPE
COD AND ALL OF THE SOUTH COAST ISLANDS /SUCH AS BLOCK ISLAND/.

THURSDAY...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH RH CRITERIA
BEING MET BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL. SOLAR HEATING WILL
AGAIN MIX THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL
AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 2OS AND RISING TEMPS WILL PUSH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TOWARD 20 PERCENT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS AS
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS AND MIN RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS ON FUTURE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE MONTH OF MARCH SET MANY RECORDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS RECORD
HIGHS DURING THE END OF THE MONTH. FOLLOWING ARE THE MONTHLY
RECORDS FOR ALL FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

BOSTON...
THE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH IS 38.3 DEGREES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 WAS 46.7 DEGREES. THIS MAKES
MARCH 2012 THE 2ND WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD. THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WAS MARCH OF 1946 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 47.2
DEGREES.

THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS 4.32 INCHES. IN MARCH 2012
1.21 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FELL IN BOSTON. THIS MAKES MARCH
2012 THE 7TH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD WAS
MARCH OF 1915 WHEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION FELL.

HARTFORD...
THE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH IS 37.8 DEGREES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 WAS 47.1 DEGREES. THIS MAKES
MARCH 2012 THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST MARCH
ON RECORD WAS MARCH OF 1945 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 46.2
DEGREES.

THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS 3.62 INCHES. IN MARCH 2012
1.52 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FELL IN HARTFORD. THIS MAKES
MARCH 2012 THE 8TH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MARCH ON
RECORD WAS MARCH OF 1981 WHEN ONLY 0.27 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL.

PROVIDENCE...
THE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH IS 38.9 DEGREES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 WAS 46.3 DEGREES. THIS MAKES
MARCH 2012 THE 3RD WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD. THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WAS MARCH OF 1946 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 48.4
DEGREES.

THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS 5.01 INCHES. IN MARCH 2012
1.31 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FELL IN PROVIDENCE. THIS MAKES
MARCH 2012 THE 4TH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MARCH ON
RECORD WAS MARCH OF 1915 WHEN ONLY 0.07 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
FELL.

WORCESTER...
THE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH IS 34.7 DEGREES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 WAS 43.9 DEGREES. THIS MAKES
MARCH 2012 THE 3RD WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD. THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD WAS MARCH OF 1945 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 44.9
DEGREES.

THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS 4.21 INCHES. IN MARCH 2012
1.66 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FELL IN WORCESTER. THIS MAKES
MARCH 2012 THE 11TH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MARCH ON
RECORD WAS MARCH OF 1915 WHEN ONLY 0.04 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
FELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...FRANK/99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/99
MARINE...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>007-050815-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
405 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION...COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ELEVATED. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-050815-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
405 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION...COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ELEVATED. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-050815-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
405 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

MAZ004>007-010>019-026-NHZ012-015-RIZ001-050115-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...
LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
AYER...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD
715 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...

BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...THEY MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

FRANK