Hurricane Force Wind Watch 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

436 
WHUS71 KBOX 280151
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...

.HURRICANE SANDY WILL TRACK NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COAST LATE
MONDAY. SANDY/S WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND MAY
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO CAPE COD
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS SANDY MOVES
INLAND. DANGEROUS SEAS OF 30 TO 35 FT ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF BLOCK
ISLAND TO NANTUCKET MON AND MON NIGHT.

ANZ235-237-254>256-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.HF.A.0001.121029T1200Z-121030T0600Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.
  SEAS 25 TO 30 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...
BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS
INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY
WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.HF.A.0001.121029T1200Z-121030T0600Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 
  KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...
BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS
INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY
WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-231-236-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT.
  SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET ON CAPE COD BAY. WAVES 3 TO 5 FT ON
  NARRAGANSETT BAY AND 2 TO 3 FT ON BOSTON HARBOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-281000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT.
  SEAS 30 TO 35 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

172 
WHUS71 KBOX 280832
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...

.HURRICANE SANDY WILL TRACK N ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TODAY...
BEFORE TURNING W TOWARD THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COAST LATE MON.
SANDY/S WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND NWD AND OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO CAPE COD MON. WINDS WILL SLACKEN LATE
MON NIGHT AND TUE AS SANDY MOVES INLAND. DANGEROUS SEAS OF 30 TO
35 FT ARE POSSIBLE S OF BLOCK ISLAND TO NANTUCKET MON AND MON
NIGHT. 

ANZ235-237-254>256-281645-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HF.A.0001.121029T1200Z-121030T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HF.W.0001.121029T1500Z-121030T0600Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
432 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO
2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM
EDT TUESDAY. THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.
  SEAS 23 TO 28 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-281645-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HF.A.0001.121029T1200Z-121030T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HF.W.0001.121029T1500Z-121030T0600Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
432 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO
2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM
EDT TUESDAY. THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.
  SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ230-231-236-281645-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
432 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY. THE STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT.
  SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-281645-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
432 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY. THE STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT.
  SEAS 25 TO 30 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

633 
WHUS71 KBOX 280841 CCA
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...

.HURRICANE SANDY WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY...BEFORE TURNING WEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COAST
LATE MONDAY. SANDY/S WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO CAPE COD
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SANDY 
MOVES INLAND. DANGEROUS SEAS OF 30 TO 35 FT ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
BLOCK ISLAND TO NANTUCKET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ANZ235-237-254>256-281700-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HF.A.0001.121029T1200Z-121030T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HF.W.0001.121029T1500Z-121030T0600Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
440 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO
2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM
EDT TUESDAY. THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.
  SEAS 23 TO 28 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-281700-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HF.A.0001.121029T1200Z-121030T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HF.W.0001.121029T1500Z-121030T0600Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
440 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO
2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM
EDT TUESDAY. THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.
  SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ230-231-236-281700-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
440 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY. THE STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT.
  SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-281700-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.121029T1000Z-121030T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
440 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY. THE STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT.
  SEAS 25 TO 30 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE WINDS SUNDAY AND SUN NIGHT YIELDING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE DURING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THEN HURRICANE SANDY WILL
DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING TO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...BUT COLD FRONT
OVER GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS TO OUR WEST. SANDY STILL WELL TO OUR
SOUTH BUT WILL GENERATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ON COASTAL
WATERS...ADDRESSED IN MARINE SECTION OF DISCUSSION. NO SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED IN MODELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT MODELS DO
INDICATE MOISTURE IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION LINGERS. IN
ADDITION...CIRRUS AHEAD OF SANDY WILL CROSS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
INTERIOR...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT OVER THE CAPE AND
EASTERN MA LOCALES WHERE CLOUDS HAD BROKEN UP.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...ONLY
ANTICIPATE A SMALL DIP IN DEW POINTS SO BETWEEN THIS FACTOR AND
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST STALLED
OUT...CENTER OF SANDY WILL STILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER LAND. WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. BETWEEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CIRRUS FROM SANDY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MAX TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING MON INTO MON NIGHT

* FLOOD WATCHES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP
TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN

* COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR BOTH RI AND MA COASTS WITH MODERATE TO
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE

SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
ALL 12Z MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF AND GEFS ARE CONVERGING ON A CENTRAL
NJ COAST LANDFALL FOR HURRICANE SANDY LATE MON.  ALL MODELS ALSO
AGREE ON AN INTENSE STORM WITH PRESSURES DOWN TO 936 TO 949 MB AT
LANDFALL!  DESPITE LANDFALL LOCATION SOUTH OF THE REGION STRONG
ANTICYCLONE /HIGH PRES OF ~1032 MB/ OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
GENERATE A SECOND WIND MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SECONDARY WIND MAX WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND
ALSO GENERATE A SECOND QPF MAX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND GIVEN STRONG UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

WIND...

LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL HELP EXPAND THE GRADIENT
WIND FIELD. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM HAVE TWO WIND MAXES...ONE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE EAST COAST OF MA WITH
80-90 KT AT 925 MB! 12Z GEFS HAS +6 STD WIND ANOMALY AT 925 MB NEAR
BID 18Z MON! THIS WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS DO NOT FOCUS ON WHERE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL! DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE
NORTH OF SANDY. 12Z GFS SIMILAR IDEA BUT MORE BROAD BRUSHED GIVEN
LOWER RESOLUTION. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50+ KT WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION /COASTAL PLAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN/
MON AND THEN AGAIN MON NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT FROM E TO SE.

THEREFORE WILL BLANKET ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH TO ADDRESS THIS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FROM BID-MVY-ACK-CAPE COD AND THE ENTIRE COASTAL PLAIN. LESS
CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. HOWEVER FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS THE X-FACTOR WILL BE ESPECIALLY EAST SLOPES OF
BERKS/WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS LOW PROB OF UP TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THUS SATURATED
GROUND MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR DOWNED TREES.

OTHER FACTOR THAT MAY INCREASE WIND DAMAGE RISK IS IF ANY
CONVECTIVE/FEEDER BANDS/SQUALLS DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST
SHALLOW UPDRAFTS GIVEN SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE DECK. THIS
WAS THE CASE WITH IRENE WHEN MOST WIND DAMAGED OCCURRED WITH
CONVECTIVE/FEEDER BAND/SQUALLS. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE POTENTIAL
BANDS WOULD DEVELOP. THUS LARGE HIGH WIND WATCH JUSTIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...MVFR TO LOW VFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. ALONG EASTERN MA...SHOULD
SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN SPECIFIC TAFS AT THIS
TIME. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR PROBABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SANDY WILL ALSO BE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE INCREASING
FLOW OUT OF THE E/SE DURING SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EASTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUD
BANK HAD PULLED TO KBED AT 4 PM...SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KBOS THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO MVFR AFTER MIDIGHT TONIGHT.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ON
THE EDGE OF MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN FALL WITHIN MVFR
OVERCAST AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS BELOW 6 MI AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO AROUND 14Z SUNDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NGT INTO MON NIGHT...
INCREASING WINDS THIS PERIOD WITH STRONGEST EAST WINDS MON UP TO 65
KT OR SO ACROSS CAPE COD TO BID...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MON
NIGHT. G55 KT BOS TO PVD.  IFR LKLY IN HEAVY RAIN. LOW RISK OF
EMBEDDED TSTMS. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.

TUE THROUGH THU...
BIG IMPROVEMENT WITH LESS WIND AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS WELL AEHAD
OF SANDY...BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...WITH 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE SOUTH COASTAL SOUNDS. EAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SANDY IS STILL FAR SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ITS NORTHWARD TRACK.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS...EXCEPT 10 TO 13 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. EAST WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS
MOST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NGT INTO MON NGT...
HIGHEST RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO CAPE COD
WATERS AND POINTS SOUTH. WINDS EAST SUN NGT AND MON THEN SE WINDS
MON NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.

TUE THROUGH THU...
BIG IMPROVEMENT WITH LESS WIND AND SHIFTING TO THE S-SW. VSBY
IMPROVES TO WITH JUST PERIODIC SHOWERS. LARGE ESE SWELLS PERSIST ESP
TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIEST RAIN MON AND MON NIGHT.  LIGHTER
PERIODIC SHOWERS THEREAFTER INTO THU.

ALL MODELS AGREE HEAVIEST/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SOUTHWEST OF
NEW ENGLAND WHERE POLAR JET INTERACTS WITH SANDY AND WESTERN PORTION
OF CIRCULATION BECOMES BAROCLINIC. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SECONDARY QPF MAX GIVEN ONSLAUGHT OF
VERY STRONG ONSHORE WIND ANOMALIES INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL PLUME.

12Z GEFS OFFERS +6 STD 850 EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA MON. THIS YIELDS 850 MB MOIST FLUX OF +6 STD MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MON INTO MON NGT.  12Z NAM HANDLING THE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE FLOW VERY WELL WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
BERKS/WORCESTER HILLS FROM NE CT/NW RI INTO THE MONADNOCKS OF
NH...WITH VERY APPARENT SHADOW EFFECT/RAINFALL MINIMUM ACROSS THE CT
RVR VLY. THE 4KM NAM /DNG/ RESOLVING THE HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN BETTER.
THUS WILL INCORPORATE HIGH RES 4 KM NAM INTO OUR QPF GRIDS WHICH
INDICATE 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A LOW PROB UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE /1-2 INCHES/ ESPECIALLY CT RVR VLY GIVEN SHADOW EFFECT.
THESE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY ONLY YIELD MINOR FLOODING
BUT 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOES YIELD A
LOW RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AS A RESULT WE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT MON/MON NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST
LINE OF RI AND MA. DETAILS TO COME BY 530 PM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ007-013>024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001-003.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-231-236-250-251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/NMB
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
521 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-280930-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
521 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL EXPERIENCE IMPACTS FROM SANDY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.
HIGH SEAS AND STORM SURGES OF AT LEAST 4 FEET WILL RESULT IN
SEVERE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN BANDS
WRAP IN ACROSS THE REGION...MAY BRING AREAS OF FLOODING. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST DURING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280930-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
521 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
EXPERIENCE IMPACTS FROM SANDY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME.

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE/ WILL RESULT HIGH
SEAS OF 30 FEET ALONG BOTH COASTLINES. STORM SURGES OF AT LEAST 4
FEET WILL RESULT IN SEVERE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES COMBINED WITH SPRAY
OFF OF HIGH CAPPING WAVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.