Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1015 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED THE MORNING FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WAS LARGELY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWING OUT FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SOME UP ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN THE PAST HOUR...BUT EAST OF I-25 ROUGHLY EAST OF
DENVER...LOW CLOUDS LINGER AS NORTHERLY SFC WINDS GRADUALLY
TURN TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE BATCH
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER LAKE...PITKIN...CHAFFEE AND NORTHERN
GUNNISON COUNTIES SOUTHWEST OF THE CWFA THIS HOUR. MOVEMENT WAS TO
THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 25KTS. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT WILL SEE IN THIS CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE FCST
AREA. ALREADY SEEING CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGES OF THE FRONT RANGE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ASSUMING MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NORTH OF
THERE...MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BELIEVE THIS SHOULD CONFINE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WE/LL SEE THIS AFTERNOON TO AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-70 WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS NOT AS STRONG. HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS QUITE REMOTE TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES. FURTHERMORE...IT APPEARS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS CONVECTION WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 02Z-03Z.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN 0400-0500 FT AGL CLOUD CEILINGS IN
THE DENVER AREA AT THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AS TEMPERATURES
WARM. LOW CLOUDS FORMED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FLOWING OUT FORM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DELAY
THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF DIA AND BJC AIRPORTS. WHEREAS APA SOUTH OF DENVER COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/T-THUNDERSTORMS PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
SOMETIME AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF LIGHT
RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE MAIN THREATS.
THE DENVER METRO AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON GOING TO THEIR TYPICAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012/

SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT OF SORTS HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME QG LIFT FROM THE TROUGH SCOOTING BY
TO OUR NORTH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO FIRE OFF A ROUND
OF DECENT CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY LINGER AROUND IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT STUFF
DIES OUT THE NEXT ROUND SHOULD GET GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE
NOON HOUR. THIS BATCH WILL PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH GO OF IT AS IT
DRIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN WILL EXIST. CANNOT RULE THINGS OUT COMPLETELY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CWA WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ITS
AXIS SOUTH OVER COLORADO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER CANADA
SINKS SOUTH. THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO MONTANA
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO WYOMING THAT DAY AS WELL...ONLY TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER.
THIS WILL BEGIN INCREASING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED IN MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
STATE WITH HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THE DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MIX TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO MAINLY THE HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD THE WYOMING
BORDER...GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. WHERE THESE TWO CONDITIONS MEET UP IS A
LITTLE FUZZY AS THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY NOT GET THAT DRY BUT WILL BE
VERY WINDY...THEN THE PLAINS WILL BE VERY DRY BUT MAY NOT SEE AS
MUCH WIND. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PLAINS.

THESE HIGHLIGHTS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE NEARING JET OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH NO MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER
MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
STARTING TUESDAY...WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS RUNS HELD THIS FRONT OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THIS IS A BIT OF A CHANGE AND DO
NOT WANT TO FOLLOW IT WHOLEHEARTEDLY JUST YET. STILL KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER DEPENDING
ON THE FRONT TIMING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
A LARGE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL SHOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

AVIATION...THERE MAY BE A BIT OF MVFR TYPE CLOUDINESS AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW TODAY WITH
KBJC AND KAPA THE MORE LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE ANY THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERN APPROACH GATES WILL PROBABLY
HAVE SOME THUNDER IN THEM AFTER 18Z OR SO. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY
GOES BY.

HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN RESPECTABLE
TODAY AND THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF WHERE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LIVES AND DIES. ANY STORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO SURVIVE
OVER THE FOOTHILLS COULD DUMP A DECENT BATCH OF RAIN BUT CHANCES
ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ211>218-238-239.

&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER/ET
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER/ET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1054 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

COZ030>051-171200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1054 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH PARK...THE NORTHERN
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
CONVECTION TO OCCUR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ONLY THOSE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER ARE LIKELY TO SURVIVE LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THE FOOTHILLS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER COULD
POSSIBLY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO A HALF INCH IN AN HOUR
AFTER 3 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY...FOOTHILLS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WEST WINDS.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY AND HOT AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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