Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
254 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT
THAT STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
THE MVC FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE CONVECTION IS DIURNAL DRIVEN AND EXPECT TO
SEE A BIG DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD BE NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN CASE CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
NORTH ALABAMA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY SEE A
INCREASE IN RAIN AND CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...AND SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY HAVE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DUE TO WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WEAK BULK SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS...SO PULSE
TYPE STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR I-20 FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TAKE THE SURFACE FRONT TO FAR
SOUTH GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
WETTER NAM AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL APPROACH ALABAMA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE THE RAIN CONFINED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A SERIES OF
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE TERMINALS...AND ADDED IN VCTS FOR KTCL...KMGM...AND KTOI. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE
TSRA MENTIONING AS WELL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES NORTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. PATCHY FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT...AND HAVE LEFT BR MENTIONING FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  88  68  85  61 /  20  70  30  30  40
ANNISTON    70  90  69  87  62 /  20  70  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  89  69  86  65 /  20  70  30  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  92  71  88  68 /  20  70  30  40  40
CALERA      73  89  70  87  66 /  20  70  40  40  40
AUBURN      72  91  71  88  67 /  20  60  30  40  60
MONTGOMERY  73  93  72  89  69 /  20  60  40  40  60
TROY        71  91  70  89  67 /  20  50  30  50  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
148 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-171900-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
148 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM HALEYVILLE...TO TUSCALOOSA...TO UNIONTOWN. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
144 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ALZ030-161915-
SUMTER AL-
144 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 142 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WEST
ALABAMA TO BOYD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LIVINGSTON...
  CUBA...
  YORK...
  THE UNIVERSITY OF WEST ALABAMA...
  BLUFFPORT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8838 3269 8813 3268 8806 3265 8805
      3263 8808 3259 8805 3263 8794 3261 8784
      3259 8786 3261 8787 3260 8790 3252 8784
      3253 8790 3242 8804 3238 8805 3231 8793
      3230 8794 3231 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 301DEG 14KT 3261 8815 3257 8834

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
216 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ALZ031-032-161945-
GREENE AL-HALE AL-
216 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HALE AND SOUTHEASTERN
GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 216 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAWYERVILLE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF GREENSBORO...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GREENSBORO...
  DUFFYS BEND...
  GREENSBORO MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
  ARCOLA...
  BIRDINE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8780 3285 8760 3276 8747 3268 8748
      3253 8778 3260 8785 3261 8784 3262 8787
      3268 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 308DEG 9KT 3271 8776

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ALZ023-162030-
TUSCALOOSA AL-
300 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 259 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING TWO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST WAS NEAR MCFARLAND MALL...OR NEAR
TUSCALOOSA...AND THE SECOND WAS JUST NORTH OF RALPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING TO THE EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HOLT...
  UNIVERSITY MALL...
  MCFARLAND MALL...
  DEERLICK CREEK CAMPGROUNDS...
  LAKE WILDWOOD...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 8762 3327 8727 3300 8736 3300 8763
      3301 8772 3302 8772 3302 8783 3313 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 283DEG 2KT 3318 8753

19

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