Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
352 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSH OUT FROM
ONGOING ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY HAPPEN AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT HELPED TRIGGER TODAYS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...ITS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT FOG. FOG WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND CENTRAL ALABAMA IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MODELS
ADVERTISE ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD HELP POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE DIURNAL
CONVECTION. WITH SIMILAR SHEAR PARAMETERS AS TODAY...STORMS MIGHT
NOT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND SUSTAIN UPDRAFT STRENGTH LONG ENOUGH TO
BECOME SEVERE. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY....DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
WHAT IS TYPICALLY COVERED BY CLIMO POPS ON SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MONDAY. MODELS BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE BY
WEDNESDAY...IT COULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...LEAVING DRIER AIR TO OUR WEST. WITH THE
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WE NEED THE RAIN...BUT A SIDE EFFECT
WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WITH
CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH...BELIEVE CHANCES FOR THUNDER
ARE LOW AT BHM...AND EVEN LOWER AT ANB. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATED AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND APPROACHES A TERMINAL.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF BR AT EET...TCL...AND TOI...BASED
PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE. THE LAST COUPLE NIGHT HAVE SEEN A MIXTURE
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SEE NO REASON WHY TONIGHT WOULD BE
DIFFERENT. MIGHT HAVE TO EXPAND BR MENTION IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS ARE
OTHER TERMINALS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  90  72  92  71 /  20  60  30  50  40
ANNISTON    74  91  72  94  72 /  20  60  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  90  75  93  73 /  20  70  30  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  75  90  74  93  74 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      74  89  73  93  72 /  30  70  30  50  30
AUBURN      73  89  72  94  72 /  30  50  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  75  93  74  94  73 /  40  60  30  30  30
TROY        74  92  71  94  71 /  40  50  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
513 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-041200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
513 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ELMORE AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OTHERWISE...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE BY 9 PM ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

ALZ032-031845-
HALE AL-
117 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALE COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM
CDT...

AT 116 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENSBORO MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...OR NEAR
GREENSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GREENSBORO...
  NEWBERN...
  CEDARVILLE...
  LANEVILLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 8781 3283 8770 3279 8758 3270 8747
      3266 8747 3265 8752 3248 8753 3254 8777
      3259 8775 3259 8774 3264 8779 3263 8775
      3265 8774 3265 8779 3271 8779 3271 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 308DEG 12KT 3268 8764

77/GLEASON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
211 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

ALZ031-032000-
GREENE AL-
211 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM CDT...

AT 211 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF EUTAW.  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  UNION...
  WEST GREENE...
  MANTUA...
  CLINTON...
  LEWISTON...

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8816 3310 8793 3290 8779 3289 8780
      3279 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 142DEG 2KT 3291 8794

73

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

ALZ024-032130-
JEFFERSON AL-
346 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 346 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MINOR...OR NEAR FAIRFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FAIRFIELD...
  HOMEWOOD...
  BIRMINGHAM...
  FULTONDALE...
  MOUNTAIN BROOK...

&&

LAT...LON 3347 8664 3347 8667 3346 8668 3344 8670
      3342 8706 3359 8703 3366 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 256DEG 10KT 3351 8697

73

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

ALZ013-015-023-032200-
FAYETTE AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-WALKER AL-
410 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WALKER...TUSCALOOSA AND
EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 405 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKMAN TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM TO LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  NORTHPORT...
  TUSCALOOSA...
  HOLT...
  OAKMAN...
  BRYANT DENNY STADIUM...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8754 3382 8751 3367 8718 3359 8720
      3355 8719 3352 8725 3353 8727 3350 8726
      3350 8728 3348 8729 3349 8733 3347 8734
      3344 8731 3342 8725 3336 8722 3313 8742
      3328 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 300DEG 8KT 3369 8743 3349 8745
          3331 8759

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

ALZ024-025-032215-
JEFFERSON AL-SHELBY AL-
425 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHELBY AND EASTERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 424 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR IRONDALE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TRUSSVILLE...
  LEEDS...
  ALTON...
  GREYSTONE...
  BARBER MOTORSPORTS PARK...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 8655 3356 8655 3355 8652 3355 8648
      3350 8648 3350 8642 3342 8643 3346 8677
      3349 8678 3364 8676 3366 8652
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 273DEG 7KT 3355 8667

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

ALZ043-044-032300-
ELMORE AL-MONTGOMERY AL-
519 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHWESTERN ELMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WETUMPKA TO PINTLALA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MONTGOMERY...
  WETUMPKA...
  HOPE HULL...
  BOYLSTON...
  MONTGOMERY ZOO...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 8641 3224 8641 3228 8647 3256 8632
      3257 8611 3208 8621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 277DEG 5KT 3253 8625 3217 8640

MA