Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT
FORECAST TIME THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY BEGAN TO SPRING UP RIGHT
AROUND NOON...WHICH WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME EVERYBODY REACHED THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF 88 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING.
ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LARGER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SPARK THIS
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING...THE OVERALL MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE TO A SEVERE
THREAT.  MARGINAL LAPSE RATES FROM 500-700MB ARE ONLY PROVIDING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG...WHICH WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...THE MAJORITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.  THAT SAID...ONE
OR TWO ARE BOUND TO REQUIRE A WARNING...SO EVERYONE WILL NEED TO
KEEP EYE TO THE SKY UNTIL WE CAN LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AS A
SEVERE WIND GUST CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS
WEAK/WEAKENING FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WHILE I BELIEVE THIS TO STILL BE
TRUE...THIS IS NOT A FRONT LIKE WE ARE USED TO.  THERE WILL NOT BE A
BIG WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED
TO...BUT WHAT IT WILL BE IS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.  THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  I
WOULD EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY
FOR THIS AREA...SO I WILL NOT BE ADDING ANYTHING TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY.

BEGINNING SUNDAY...ALABAMA IS GOING TO BE PUT INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AS WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS IS GOING TO OPEN US UP TO A VERY TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL HOLD ONTO THIS LOW-END CHANCE POP
THROUGH THE WEEK.

WHILE WE ARE GOING TO BE HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN
FACT...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
NOT ONLY GIVE US THE CHANCE TO SEE AN MCS OR TWO...IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.  LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THE STORY...WITH TEMPERATURE
BEGINNING TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST SLOWLY STARTS TO SLIDE TO
THE EAST.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. SEEING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE ACTIVITY NOW PUSHING
EAST OF TOI...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL IS LOW. WILL MONITOR ONGOING RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE.
CURRENTLY...HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TS ARE NOT TRACKING TOWARD ANY
TERMINAL.

THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND. AS SKIES CLEAR...FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED IN TEMPOS TO LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL TODAY. TIMES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF
CLOUDS THIN QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

TODAYS CONVECTION IS DUE IN PART TO A FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WITH AID FROM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY...SCT TS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE AT MGM AND
TOI...AND HAVE INCLUDE VCTS AT BOTH SITES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  93  70  94  69 /  20  10  10  20  20
ANNISTON    73  93  71  95  70 /  30  10  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  77  94  72  95  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  96  72  97  72 /  30  20  10  20  10
CALERA      74  94  72  96  71 /  30  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  72 /  30  30  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  94  74  98  71 /  30  30  20  20  10
TROY        72  91  74  95  70 /  30  40  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

27/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-281800-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA...TO ANNISTON LINE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

08/MK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

ALZ012-280030-
LAMAR AL-
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

AT 642 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CREWS...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF SULLIGENT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SULLIGENT...
  CREWS...
  LAMAR COUNTY AIRPORT...
  BLOOMING GROVE...
  PINE SPRINGS...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8821 3405 8799 3402 8799 3402 8795
      3389 8795 3383 8795 3371 8794 3372 8798
      3382 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 027DEG 5KT 3396 8810

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

ALZ048-280030-
RUSSELL AL-
657 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

AT 654 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSSELL COUNTY SPORTS COMPLEX...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PHENIX CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PHENIX CITY...
  SEALE...
  PHENIX DRAG STRIP...
  FORT MITCHELL...
  UCHEE CREEK...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 8493 3221 8497 3220 8496 3219 8497
      3217 8502 3235 8526 3247 8520 3248 8506
      3244 8496 3239 8498 3237 8497 3233 8500
      3231 8494 3226 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 295DEG 12KT 3239 8512

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