Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT
FORECAST TIME THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY BEGAN TO SPRING UP RIGHT
AROUND NOON...WHICH WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME EVERYBODY REACHED THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF 88 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING.
ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LARGER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SPARK THIS
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING...THE OVERALL MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE TO A SEVERE
THREAT.  MARGINAL LAPSE RATES FROM 500-700MB ARE ONLY PROVIDING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG...WHICH WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...THE MAJORITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.  THAT SAID...ONE
OR TWO ARE BOUND TO REQUIRE A WARNING...SO EVERYONE WILL NEED TO
KEEP EYE TO THE SKY UNTIL WE CAN LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AS A
SEVERE WIND GUST CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS
WEAK/WEAKENING FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WHILE I BELIEVE THIS TO STILL BE
TRUE...THIS IS NOT A FRONT LIKE WE ARE USED TO.  THERE WILL NOT BE A
BIG WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED
TO...BUT WHAT IT WILL BE IS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.  THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  I
WOULD EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY
FOR THIS AREA...SO I WILL NOT BE ADDING ANYTHING TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY.

BEGINNING SUNDAY...ALABAMA IS GOING TO BE PUT INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AS WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS IS GOING TO OPEN US UP TO A VERY TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL HOLD ONTO THIS LOW-END CHANCE POP
THROUGH THE WEEK.

WHILE WE ARE GOING TO BE HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN
FACT...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
NOT ONLY GIVE US THE CHANCE TO SEE AN MCS OR TWO...IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.  LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THE STORY...WITH TEMPERATURE
BEGINNING TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST SLOWLY STARTS TO SLIDE TO
THE EAST.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKING FOR SOME INCREASED TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN GOOD THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL LINE DEVELOPING ALONG A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW STRATUS NUDGED IN FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE STRATUS GONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OFF AND ON WITH HEATING.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  93  70  94  69 /  20  10  10  20  20
ANNISTON    73  93  71  95  70 /  30  10  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  77  94  72  95  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  96  72  97  72 /  30  20  10  20  10
CALERA      74  94  72  96  71 /  30  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  72 /  30  30  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  94  74  98  71 /  30  30  20  20  10
TROY        72  91  74  95  70 /  30  40  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

27/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-281800-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA...TO ANNISTON LINE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

08/MK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
411 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WADLEY                  33.12N 85.57W
07/27/2012                   RANDOLPH           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES IN WADLEY.

&&

AG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>