Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
344 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHAPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH
A SURFACE REFLECTION EVIDENT IN CENTRAL MS SURFACE OBS. WITH PW
VALUES NOW OVER 2.00 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING ON
ROADWAYS. SEVERAL WAVES OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD FROM MS...THE FIRST CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR FROM CHILTON COUNTY NORTHWARD. DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH FL GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH IN A
COUPLE HOURS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AND FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR 100 PERCENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.50-1.00 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL PUT DOWN HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...CAUSING WIND FIELDS TO
INCREASE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL HELP INCREASE LAPSE RATES. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW...ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW.
WOULD EXPECT THE RADAR MAP TO LOOK SIMILAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT
DOES TODAY. WHILE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AVERAGE QPF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE BETWEEN 2-4
INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN ROTATING TO OUR WEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN CONUS. IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH IT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE ATLANTIC. POPS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE MORE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY BOUNCING AROUND MVFR TO VFR AT KBHM KEET
AND KTCL. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVER SPREAD CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOISTURE MAYBE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH FOR IFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
TIME. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KMGM AND KTOI SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  86  72  89  73 /  90  70  40  50  30
ANNISTON    70  86  72  89  73 /  90  60  40  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  72  88  74  90  74 /  90  70  40  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  73  91  73  92  73 /  90  70  30  50  30
CALERA      71  88  72  90  73 /  90  70  40  50  30
AUBURN      72  87  73  88  72 /  90  60  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  72  88  73  92  73 /  90  60  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  71 /  90  60  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
102 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-121815-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
102 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 3 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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