Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TODAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS DROP QUICKLY FROM THE
60S AND 70S IN TENNESSEE TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE INDIANA/KENTUCKY
BORDER. UPPER LOW HAS AIDED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING
NORTH...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TCL-BHM METRO AREAS DURING RUSH
HOUR. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT THE MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE...MUCH LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT SAG CLOSE ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS. QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO 4.0 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONVECTIVE...SO THESE
AMOUNTS ARE AREA AVERAGES...AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORE THAN
OTHERS. ANY RAIN IS BENEFICIAL AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IT WILL BE PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
CONUS...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COOLED TEMPS
OF MID WEEK WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND POPS WILL BE
BACK TO THE MORE SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLE FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT BUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED.

MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  89  71  86  72 /  70  70  50  60  40
ANNISTON    72  89  70  88  71 /  70  60  40  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  89  73  88  74 /  70  70  50  60  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  91  74  91  74 /  60  70  60  60  40
CALERA      72  89  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  60  40
AUBURN      73  89  71  89  71 /  60  50  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  91  73 /  50  50  40  60  40
TROY        71  91  70  90  71 /  50  50  40  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-111745-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
POOR DRAINAGE. THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...
BUT THE MAIN FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUSCALOOSA              33.24N 87.54W
07/10/2012                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN IN TUSCALOOSA
            AND IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTY.

&&

LINHARES

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