Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA. SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY LIGHT COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS CONTINUING ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
HANG AROUND AND SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THAT
AREA...AS WELL AS THE AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY SEEING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS CONVECTION GETS GOING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADD MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND
WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN OUTFLOW FROM AN
OLD MCS OVER OHIO IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE...AND WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THAT AREA SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT KEEPING
CHANCE POPS.

LOOKING AT THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING THIS MORNING...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCH. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING
FOR THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR TODAY. SO MUCH LIKE
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHWEST...WHERE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER HAS HINDERED A LARGE
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

73

&&

AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVED THROUGH TCL ABOUT AN HOUR
AGO...CURRENTLY NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING ANY TAF SITE.
THE BOUNDARY THAT TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MGM AND TOI. STILL THINKING THAT THESE
SITES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW FROM AN MCS TO THE NORTHEAST IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARD NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. SINCE THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WILL KEEP VCTS FOR THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AS TO WHERE
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTIVE MOVE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 04Z TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT PATCHY MVFR VIS FOR
THE NORMAL TAF SITES FOR NOW...SINCE VISIBILITIES WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE.

73

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-061745-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FROM 2 PM UNTIL 8 PM. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
137 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ALZ021-051915-
CLEBURNE AL-
137 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

AT 133 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF PLEASANT GAP...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
PIEDMONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MARS HILLS...
  OAK LEVEL...
  LIBERTY HILL...
  COLEMAN LAKE AND CAMPGROUND...
  SWEETWATER LAKE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 8564 3377 8564 3381 8559 3384 8559
      3385 8564 3388 8563 3389 8553 3394 8553
      3394 8550 3396 8549 3396 8539 3375 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 017DEG 6KT 3389 8549

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
139 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ALZ020-051930-
CHEROKEE AL-
139 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 137 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAND ROCK...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTRE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LEESBURG...
  CHEROKEE ROCK VILLAGE...
  SLACKLAND...
  WEISS DAM...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8563 3408 8579 3413 8579 3411 8584
      3420 8585 3424 8585 3425 8584 3424 8582
      3426 8580 3426 8578 3430 8572
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 046DEG 6KT 3424 8579

MA