Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
336 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ON GOING CONVECTION...NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS...SURFACE TROUGH...DAYTIME
HIGHS TO NEAR 100...AND WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MAKE FOR A
PROBLEMATIC POP FORECAST FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE MODELS TRANSITION
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER US TODAY...OTHERS DO NOT...AND NONE
OF THE MODELS HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY ARE STILL UNSTABLE BUT NOT QUITE AS EXPLOSIVE
AS YESTERDAY. STILL THOUGH...I THINK THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT SHOT
OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS WE REACH THE
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE OUTFLOWS THAT ARE
BOUND TO BE LINGERING OVER OR NEARBY THE AREA. BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO THE MID CHANCE RANGE EVERYWHERE AND...OF COURSE...WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THINGS WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED TODAY
BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BEYOND TODAY...SEEMS LIKE WE LOSE THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO RE-
CENTER OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD PUT US IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION OF AT LEAST SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AGAIN TODAY BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK
DOWN SLOWLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT QUITE OVER WITH CONVECTION FOR TONIGHT AS A ROUND OF STORMS IS
MOVING INTO SE AL FROM GA PRESENTLY. ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD
MENTION OF TSRA IN TOI TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. OTHER AREAS DID NOT
REALLY GET A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S CONVECTION
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS HZ THINKING OF PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS EXCEPT FOR TOI. THINK BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION SHOULD HELP
WITH HZ FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME VCTS FOR MON
AFTERNOON AS GETTING SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AROUND THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

SELECTED HEAT RELATED CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

JULY 2

LOCATIONS           RECORD TEMPERATURES     YEAR(S)
----------------    -------------------     -----------
ANNISTON                    102             1954
BIRMINGHAM                  101             1954
MONTGOMERY                  101             1969
TUSCALOOSA                  102             1970

JULY 3

LOCATIONS           RECORD TEMPERATURES     YEAR(S)
----------------    -------------------     -----------
ANNISTON                    100             1970
BIRMINGHAM                  101             1970
MONTGOMERY                  100             1877
TUSCALOOSA                  103             1970

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     98  72  97  72  96 /  40  30  30  20  30
ANNISTON   100  73  96  72  96 /  40  30  30  20  30
BIRMINGHAM 100  75  97  75  97 /  40  30  30  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  98  74  99  74  98 /  40  30  30  20  30
CALERA      98  74  97  73  96 /  40  30  30  20  30
AUBURN      98  76  96  75  94 /  40  30  30  20  30
MONTGOMERY  99  75  98  74  97 /  40  30  30  20  30
TROY        97  74  95  73  95 /  40  30  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

88/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
935 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-030300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
935 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...THUS
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
SLIGHTLY...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS WE MOVE TOWARD MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

08/MNK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
158 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

ALZ050-020800-
BARBOUR AL-
158 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL 300 AM
CDT...

AT 157 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK
TO TEXASVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO...
  EUFAULA...
  RICHARDS CROSSROADS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 8573 3173 8571 3200 8551 3202 8550
      3202 8543 3211 8543 3215 8540 3211 8523
      3206 8519 3206 8505 3194 8508 3189 8513
      3176 8513 3174 8519 3170 8521 3170 8540
      3161 8542 3161 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 287DEG 17KT 3197 8507 3174 8534

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

ALZ046-020830-
BULLOCK AL-
248 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BULLOCK COUNTY UNTIL 330
AM CDT...

AT 248 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR INVERNESS...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF UNION SPRINGS...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PICKETT...
  PEROTE...
  TANYARD...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8574 3197 8579 3201 8587 3207 8579
      3199 8561 3188 8566 3188 8573
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 308DEG 8KT 3199 8577

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

ALZ046-020930-
BULLOCK AL-
339 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BULLOCK COUNTY UNTIL 430 AM
CDT...

AT 337 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM UNION SPRINGS TO BEANS
CROSSROADS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MIDWAY...
  INVERNESS...
  ABERFOIL...
  PICKETT...
  THREE NOTCH...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8565 3204 8588 3223 8571 3223 8560
      3211 8542 3204 8543 3202 8546 3201 8551
      3200 8551 3200 8559 3196 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0838Z 309DEG 9KT 3215 8566 3200 8580