Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WHICH HAS BROUGHT COPIUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH ALABAMA THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA. IN ITS
WAKE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIER AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT. THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER TONIGHT IS THE MCS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE NORTHWEST TIP OF ALABAMA AROUND 5 PM.
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS HAS ALREADY BEEN ADDED TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES THE I-20
CORRIDOR...RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED RAISED FOR AREAS ALONG I-20 AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD.

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER CHALLENGING DAY TO FORECAST. THE
MCS MOVING INTO ALABAMA THIS EVENING MAY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE
THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER MCS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND
AFFECT THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS WESTERLY...WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR AN UPSTREAM
MCS. MOS GUIDANCE IS CARRYING 50-60 PERCENT POPS FOR TUESDAY...AND
WILL FORECAST LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL COUNTIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND SMALL RAIN
CHANCES KEPT IN FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE INTO GEORGIA AND BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO EAST ALABAMA...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

BY FRIDAY A COOLER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING FOR CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA ALONG WITH
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THESE DAYS. A CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FOR MOST
TERMINALS TO VFR CONDITIONS. SINCE THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SO
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO GO WITH SHRA IN THE TAF FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND NOT INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE SHORT TERM...EXCEPT FOR
KTOI WHERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY CHALLENGES EXIST FOR
THE FORECAST...AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING OF THE COMPLEX...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ADDED VCTS IN THE TAF FOR KBHM AND KEET FROM 23Z-00Z FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE COMPLEX MOVING
THROUGH...BUT TIMING AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY BASED ON THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS. TSRA WAS ADDED INTO THE TAF FOR KTCL WITH
BETTER CONFIDENCE OF STORMS OVER WESTERN ALABAMA. A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT AMENDMENTS TO THE FORECASTS BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  66  89  64 /  40  60  20  10  10
ANNISTON    69  87  68  89  66 /  30  60  30  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  86  69  89  68 /  40  60  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  71  91  68 /  40  60  30  10  10
CALERA      69  86  70  90  68 /  30  60  30  20  10
AUBURN      68  89  70  89  69 /  30  60  30  30  10
MONTGOMERY  71  87  72  92  71 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        71  87  69  90  68 /  30  60  30  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-122045-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
332 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL BE POISED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THE LINE
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. TIMING
OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM 5PM TO 10PM. IF THE STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER...THE SEVERE THREAT COULD POSSIBLY BE EXTENDED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THIS LINE AS WELL...AND INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING REGARDING THESE STORMS. THE LINE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>