Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE DAY. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS...BUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE WORKED INTO AREAS
JUST WEST OF MONTGOMERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES OR TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED
TO BREAK OUT OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WEATHER...SINCE MOST OF
THE THE RAIN WILL NOT GET TO AREAS NORTH OF I-20 UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR EVERGREEN TO PENSACOLA WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS ALREADY
IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THESE
VALUES MAY INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER MAY UPGRADE THIS AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND STORMS AS WELL AS LOW CIGS WILL
BE PROBLEMATIC. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT KTOI AND
KMGM...WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES THE MOST OVER
THOSE TERMINALS. TSRA WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THOSE AREAS FOR A
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
AFTERWARD INCLUDED PREVAILING RA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...RA WAS INCLUDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO MENTION OF TS AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE RAINFALL ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AND WENT WITH SHRA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE IFR WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND STORMS. IFR
CIGS LOOK TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. THE NORTHERN SITES
SHOULD ENCOUNTER MAINLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH MOST OBSERVATION SITES RECORDING ONLY A
TRACE TO 0.1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. TO THE
SOUTH...ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG A SURFACE FRONT AND
IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN LATER
TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD AS WELL...ENHANCING THE PROBABILITY
OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. THE TROF AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD
ON MONDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE TROF AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD DURING THE OVERNIGHT OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER WITH THE DEPICTION OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THE POP FORECAST.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THURSDAY DURING THE AFTERNOONS OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS
CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IN THE AREA. AS THE
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO REBOUND AND BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  69  81  68  85 / 100  80  70  50  60
ANNISTON    78  69  80  69  85 / 100  80  70  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  79  70  83  71  86 / 100  80  70  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  81  71  86  71  88 / 100  80  60  40  60
CALERA      79  69  84  71  86 / 100  80  70  40  60
AUBURN      80  69  82  70  86 /  90  80  70  40  40
MONTGOMERY  81  71  85  72  89 / 100  80  70  40  40
TROY        83  68  84  71  87 /  90  70  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
212 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-111300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
212 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
THOUGH THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING...THE LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBILITY OF WEAK TORNADOES THROUGH
4 PM. THE THREAT AREA IS SOUTH OF I-85. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THIS SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
119 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

ALZ048-050-101900-
BARBOUR AL-RUSSELL AL-
119 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL AND EASTERN
BARBOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 114 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TWIN SPRINGS...
  FORT MITCHELL ACTIVITY CENTER...
  UCHEE CREEK...
  FORT MITCHELL...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 8493 3221 8497 3220 8496 3218 8501
      3213 8505 3201 8505 3194 8508 3189 8512
      3192 8518 3235 8502 3234 8500 3233 8500
      3231 8494 3226 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 205DEG 23KT 3196 8504

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
150 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

ALZ046-050-101930-
BARBOUR AL-BULLOCK AL-
150 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARBOUR AND BULLOCK COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN FIELD TO BOOT HILL
TO BLUE SPRINGS STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  UNION SPRINGS...
  MIDWAY...
  EUFAULA...
  TEXASVILLE...
  CLAYTON...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 8567 3188 8566 3188 8568 3224 8594
      3226 8588 3223 8586 3224 8543 3215 8542
      3215 8526 3206 8519 3206 8505 3194 8508
      3189 8513 3176 8513 3174 8519 3170 8521
      3170 8540 3161 8542 3161 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 252DEG 28KT 3219 8579 3187 8555
          3164 8547

MA

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