Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MODEL SUITE DISPLAYS GOOD SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEK...WHICH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY. STRONG UPPER LOW
SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR NEARING THE WEST COAST WHILE ANOTHER LOW
WAS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS
CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO
THE PLAINS. EVEN WITH THIS RELATIVE AGREEMENT...THAT IS REALLY ONLY
PART OF THE COMPLEX PICTURE CONCERNING SENSIBLE WEATHER.

MESOSCALE FEATURES AND BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT SEEMINGLY ALL OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. SMALL
ORGANIZED LINE MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. THIS FEATURE LEFT A BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE NEXT LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BUT GENERALLY REMAINED NORTH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AREAS. UPSTREAM MCS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH
AND EAST BUT MAY NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT INFLUENCE HERE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE MCS'S HAS PICKED UP IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH THE COLD POOL SEEMINGLY
CONSOLIDATING AND ALLOWING STORMS T0 INTENSIFY. CORFIDI VECTORS WORK
THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GENERALLY FROM BOUNDARY
INTERACTION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND ANY UPSTREAM COLD POOL
INFLUENCE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALL MODELS INDICATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST POPS A BIT
SOUTHWARD AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES BY OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A
BETTER PART OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THIS SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE VALUES
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH AND SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...WITH THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN AS TO
WHEN THE FRONT SINKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO REMOVE POPS. THE MODEL
SUITE CONSENSUS MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL MAKE LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND IN THE POP DEPARTMENT.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ONLY TRICKY FEATURE WILL BE THE CUT-OFF
ENERGY THAT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT APPEARS
IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER VERY LATE INTO THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SOMEWHAT AND DO NOT
REALLY REBOUND UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.  THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
TODAY IS THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE DIFFERENT COMPLEXES OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TRIED TO TIME THINGS OUT WITH VCTS AND LATER
AMENDMENTS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION
THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.  VIS COULD DROP IF HEAVIER RAINS PASS
OVER A TERMINAL AS WELL.

27

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-051130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
617 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS THREATS TODAY AND TONIGHT INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW.

A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON...TO CLANTON...TO
LAFAYETTE.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE HAZARDOUS
THREAT EXPANDS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE AND WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
MORNING ACTIVITY...STAY TUNED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER PUSHES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

A SMALL CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST ON WEDNESDAY ALSO.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TUESDAY...BECOMING NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80...INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR. THE THREATS REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THIS PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS DEPENDENT ON A NUMBER OF
FACTORS...SO TIMING AND LOCATION COULD CHANGE PERIODICALLY. CHECK BACK
FREQUENTLY FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
PERIODICALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
751 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ALZ022-023-025-031>035-041330-
BIBB AL-CHILTON AL-GREENE AL-HALE AL-PERRY AL-PICKENS AL-SHELBY
AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
751 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA...
SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY...SOUTHERN PICKENS...NORTHERN PERRY...NORTHERN
HALE...NORTHERN GREENE...NORTHERN CHILTON AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 830
AM CDT...

AT 752 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CALERA TO MOUNDVILLE TO
PICKENSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PICKENSVILLE...
  CENTREVILLE...
  BRENT...
  JEMISON...
  ALICEVILLE...

&&

LAT...LON 3329 8831 3330 8830 3307 8769 3317 8676
      3277 8650 3279 8747 3297 8817 3299 8817
      3299 8826 3301 8831 3307 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 319DEG 39KT 3308 8679 3300 8761
          3325 8830

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
756 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ALZ029-036-037-041400-
COOSA AL-RANDOLPH AL-TALLAPOOSA AL-
756 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALLAPOOSA...RANDOLPH AND COOSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 754 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF HEFLIN TO
5 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOODSTOCK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ROCKFORD...
  GOODWATER...
  KELLYTON...
  LAKE WEDOWEE...
  EQUALITY...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8559 3281 8560 3275 8617 3275 8632
      3277 8633 3275 8638 3282 8646 3286 8645
      3290 8649 3310 8649 3309 8598 3310 8597
      3311 8565 3350 8564 3350 8535 3348 8529
      3311 8523
TIME...MOT...LOC 1256Z 299DEG 39KT 3353 8558 3325 8606

61

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