Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO SPINNING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM WISCONSIN DOWN INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. CLOSER TO HOME...DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT
HAVE BEEN ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA HAVE LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CU AND A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-20
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO
THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES WEAK DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS RATHER DRY AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC. APPEARS THERE
WILL BE TO MANY LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE INTO THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK....SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MEANS MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD REACH UP INTO THE MID 90S DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

MA

&&

.AVIATION...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. LOOKING FOR SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4K AND 6K THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE DEEP SOUTH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE TCL...BHM AND ANB
VICINITY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  61  80  54 /  20  40  30  20  10
ANNISTON    61  85  62  82  57 /  10  40  30  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  86  64  81  58 /  10  50  30  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  87  64  83  58 /  20  50  30  10  10
CALERA      63  86  64  83  59 /  10  40  30  20  10
AUBURN      64  86  67  84  64 /  10  20  20  30  10
MONTGOMERY  64  87  66  85  63 /  10  20  20  20  10
TROY        59  86  63  85  60 /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
119 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-211830-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
119 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ALZ012-202130-
LAMAR AL-
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAMAR COUNTY AIRPORT...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SULLIGENT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VERNON...
  MILLPORT...
  BLOOMING GROVE...
  LAMAR COUNTY AIRPORT...
  BEDFORD...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 8826 3396 8811 3389 8795 3373 8794
      3353 8797 3353 8816 3354 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 027DEG 12KT 3384 8807

MA