Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TS COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT
BHM...ANB...AND EET. STORMS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A BROKEN LINE. HAVE CHOSEN TO USE PREVAILING AND/OR TEMPOS FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED...BUT STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL.

NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT TO TCL BEFORE
DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST NOT CONTAINING ANY LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER 04Z. AS CLOUD
COVER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. VIS REDUCTIONS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER WINDS DIMINISH. BUT
GIVEN THE WET SURFACE CONDITIONS POST RAINFALL...EXPECT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VIS.

DO NOT EXPECT RAIN COMPLEX TO AFFECT MGM AND TOI TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA. DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF CLOUD DECK
AND HOW LONG CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE HAMPERED. THIS AREA DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING..AND PATCHY MVFR FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS (COLD POCKET) WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...CONSIDERED THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH RECORD VALUES. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE
MAIN CLIMATE SITES ARE LISTED BELOW. A FEW OF THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CAP...SO AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO
PRODUCE A CAPPING INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
NORMALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SYSTEMS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR GIVEN DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINS THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW AND OPENS
IT UP INTO A TROF. BOTH SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY...AND NO BIG VARIATIONS IN POPS FROM
ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. THE REM ANTS OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE EAST
OF AREA BY SATURDAY AND KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

58/ROSE

&&

.CLIMATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL TRY
TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
QUITE A BIT...EVEN APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS. BELOW ARE THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL ADD MORE DAYS OVER
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IF ANY FURTHER DAYS FORECAST APPEAR TO BE NEAR
RECORDS.

SUNDAY APRIL 1

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          86              1974
MONTGOMERY          87              1974
TUSCALOOSA          87              1970/1978
ANNISTON            87              1974

MONDAY APRIL 2

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          85              2006
MONTGOMERY          88              2006
TUSCALOOSA          88              2006
ANNISTON            87              1978

TUESDAY APRIL 3

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          87              1999
MONTGOMERY          87              1999
TUSCALOOSA          86              1963
ANNISTON            89              1999

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  85  58  86  59 /  30  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    56  87  60  86  60 /  30  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  63  86  63 /  20  20  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  88  60  87  61 /  20  20  10  10  10
CALERA      60  87  62  85  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      60  85  63  84  63 /  20  20  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  88  61  87  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
TROY        58  86  60  86  60 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-011430-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
930 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF US-80. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A SECONDARY THREAT.

AREAS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE HAZARDOUS THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE MAY
STILL BE CHANGES AS WE APPROACH THESE DAYS.

WE ARE IN THE HEART OF SEVERE WEATHER SEASON...SO PAY SPECIAL
ATTENTION TO ADDITIONAL DETAILS AS WE APPROACH THESE POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             NESMITH                 34.18N 87.12W
03/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       WINSTON            AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED BY FIREFIGHTER

&&

KSUMRALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
706 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             PARRISH                 33.73N 87.28W
03/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       WALKER             AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN PARRISH...HAIL
            WAS STILL FALLING.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
709 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W SIPSEY              33.82N 87.12W
03/31/2012  E60 MPH          WALKER             AL   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS JUST WEST OF SISPEY NEAR
            U.S. HIGHWAY 78.

&&

GRANTHAM

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