Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS (COLD POCKET) WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...CONSIDERED THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH RECORD VALUES. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE
MAIN CLIMATE SITES ARE LISTED BELOW. A FEW OF THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CAP...SO AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO
PRODUCE A CAPPING INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
NORMALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SYSTEMS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR GIVEN DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINS THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW AND OPENS
IT UP INTO A TROF. BOTH SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY...AND NO BIG VARIATIONS IN POPS FROM
ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. THE REM ANTS OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE EAST
OF AREA BY SATURDAY AND KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE MORNING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRETTY MUCH PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND
MGM AND MAY MOVE TOWARD TOI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I'VE OPTED TO USE
VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE -- IF ANY WERE TO HIT MGM OR TOI...THEY
WOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND NOT CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT/LONG DURATION OF
CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

BACK TO THE NORTH OF THOSE LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH BETTER
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. THERE WAS AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN MIDDLE TN...THAT APPEARED TO BE MOVING
SOUTH. THESE STORMS COULD CONCEIVABLY REACH TCL/BHM/EET/ANB LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS
RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...AND THERE SHOULD BE MANY HOURS OF
LEAD TIME TO SEND UPDATES IF NEEDED.

SINCE THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS GOT MORE RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING THIS
MORNING...AND WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS LASTING LONGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON...I HIT THE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS/FOG A BIT HARDER DOWN THERE.
IF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STORMS TO THE NORTH DOES MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS...THEN THEY WOULD ALSO NEED TO HAVE
VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS LOWERED IN LATER FORECASTS/UPDATES.

/61/

&&

.CLIMATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL TRY
TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
QUITE A BIT...EVEN APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS. BELOW ARE THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL ADD MORE DAYS OVER
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IF ANY FURTHER DAYS FORECAST APPEAR TO BE NEAR
RECORDS.

SUNDAY APRIL 1

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          86              1974
MONTGOMERY          87              1974
TUSCALOOSA          87              1970/1978
ANNISTON            87              1974

MONDAY APRIL 2

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          85              2006
MONTGOMERY          88              2006
TUSCALOOSA          88              2006
ANNISTON            87              1978

TUESDAY APRIL 3

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          87              1999
MONTGOMERY          87              1999
TUSCALOOSA          86              1963
ANNISTON            89              1999

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  85  58  86  59 /  30  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    56  87  60  86  60 /  30  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  62  87  63  86  63 /  20  20  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  88  60  87  61 /  20  20  10  10  10
CALERA      60  87  62  85  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      60  85  63  84  63 /  20  20  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  88  61  87  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
TROY        58  86  60  86  60 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-011430-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
930 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF US-80. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A SECONDARY THREAT.

AREAS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE HAZARDOUS THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE MAY
STILL BE CHANGES AS WE APPROACH THESE DAYS.

WE ARE IN THE HEART OF SEVERE WEATHER SEASON...SO PAY SPECIAL
ATTENTION TO ADDITIONAL DETAILS AS WE APPROACH THESE POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

ALZ014-312200-
WINSTON AL-
423 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 421 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE CORINTH RECREATION AREA...OR 5 MILES WEST OF
ARLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ARLEY...
  FALLS CITY...
  LAKE SHORE...
  WILSON BEND...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 8717 3408 8715 3400 8711 3399 8714
      3400 8719 3399 8721 3400 8724 3400 8738
      3413 8745 3416 8727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 312DEG 9KT 3409 8730

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
448 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

ALZ015-312215-
WALKER AL-
448 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE SHORE...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF ARLEY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CURRY...
  SIPSEY...
  LYNNS PARK...
  ROCKY HOLLOW...
  MANCHESTER...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8710 3394 8710 3392 8708 3390 8708
      3389 8701 3386 8697 3374 8715 3399 8735
      3400 8724 3399 8720 3400 8719 3400 8717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 322DEG 15KT 3400 8722

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
520 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             CURRY                   33.96N 87.21W
03/31/2012  E1.25 INCH       WALKER             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CURRY.

&&

GGOGGINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

ALZ020-312315-
CHEROKEE AL-
549 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

AT 543 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAND ROCK...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF CENTRE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CENTRE...
  CEDAR BLUFF...
  CENTRE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
  FORNEY...
  WEISS LAKE...

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8543 3397 8540 3395 8543 3396 8549
      3394 8550 3394 8552 3420 8582 3433 8567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 312DEG 28KT 3420 8566

GRANTHAM