Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Birmingham, AL

799 
WWUS54 KBMX 032013
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
313 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ALC133-032023-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-120603T2030Z/
WINSTON AL-
313 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3413 8731 3400 8736 3399 8745 3400 8764
      3411 8764 3412 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 262DEG 17KT 3403 8745

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FOR MESOSCALE UPDATE AND FORECAST PACKAGE.

STORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. CURRENTLY
THE WARM FRONT BASED ON SURFACE OBS IS SITUATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF MEMPHIS...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO MUSCLE
SHOALS AND SOUTHEAST TO AROUND THE ANNISTON AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...VERY UNSTABLE AIR HAS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH DEWPOINTS
NOW BEING OBSERVED IN THE LOWER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 OUT
AHEAD OF THE CURRENT STORMS. RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES SB
CAPES RISING TO OVER 3000 J/KG ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS...AND CAPES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THAT ARE CURRENTLY INCLUDED WITHIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATED TO BE JUST OVER 30
KNOTS...WHICH WILL DEFINITELY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THE UPDRAFTS WITH
THE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. LAPS 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING AROUND -9C AT 500MB...AND UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO REACH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY
THREE BODY SCATTER SPIKES AND 50DBZ RETURNS UP TO 30K FEET OFF KGWX
RADAR. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER OF
STORMS...A COLD POOL IS LIKELY STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK. BASED ON FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE LATEST
LAPS ANALYSIS...SOUTHEASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE...AND WILL RIDE ALONG THE CORRIDOR X/INTERSTATE 22 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND
4PM FOR ARRIVAL AT JASPER...AND AROUND 530-6PM FOR THE BIRMINGHAM
METRO AREA.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THE FORECAST PACKAGE...TONIGHT'S FORECAST WILL
ALL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE MCS TRAVERSES THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED MUCH OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN IMPACTS. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO CURRENTLY BEING
TRIGGERED ALONG THE ACTUAL WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE CURRENT
CLUSTER OF STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE STORMS CAREFULLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY UPSTREAM...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY HAS FIRED ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS SO FAR...SO WE COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
OF STORMS DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. WENT
AHEAD AND WENT WITH LIKELY POPS DURING THE MORNING AND CATEGORICAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR NOW...BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND TRAVERSE...SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOOKING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHEAST TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD FRONT AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. IT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS WELL. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SCATTERED
STORMS CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT HOT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN AREAS THAT DON'T OBSERVE ANY OF THE
STORMS AND CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND PERHAPS
ONLY MID 80S FOR AREAS NORTH WHERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH WNW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS.  THE MAIN THING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.  UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THESE STORMS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
AS FAR AS TIMING...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED NONETHELESS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

HAVE DECIDED TO TRY TO TIME OUT AT THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WE
FINALLY HAVE SOME CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. TCL BHM AND EET WILL
LIKELY SEE THE FIRST IMPACT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXTENT
OF THE COVERAGE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
ARE HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE TS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL COME DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE 12Z. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEATHER TO IMPACT BHM
AND TCL BEFORE 12Z THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD WORK INTO TCL AND EET
FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. UNSURE ABOUT THE ENDING TIME SO WILL UPDATE
WITH THE EVENING FORECAST. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD BE REDUCED WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP...SO PAY ATTENTION FOR THOSE AMENDMENTS AS WELL.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  81  68  83  59 /  50  80  60  20  10
ANNISTON    69  83  69  84  62 /  40  70  60  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  70  84  70  84  63 /  50  70  60  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  90  71  87  65 /  50  60  50  50  20
CALERA      69  86  71  84  65 /  50  60  50  50  20
AUBURN      69  88  70  83  67 /  20  30  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  70  94  71  89  68 /  20  20  30  50  30
TROY        67  94  70  88  68 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

16/56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-041200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1250 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ACTIVITY WILL START IN THE
NORTHWEST AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...THE THREAT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST...WITH AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL SPREAD TO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON TUESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

THIS PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS DEPENDENT ON A NUMBER OF
FACTORS...SO TIMING AND LOCATION COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAY. CHECK BACK WITH THIS PRODUCT FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED PERIODICALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
135 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ALZ011-031845-
MARION AL-
135 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

AT 135 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF TREMONT...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF RED
BAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A HEADS UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8813 3432 8803 3432 8801 3406 8807
      3405 8805 3408 8821 3433 8817 3433 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 274DEG 26KT 3425 8812

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
153 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ALZ011-031930-
MARION AL-
153 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 152 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF RED BAY TO TREMONT TO NEW SALEM...AND MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH. A SECOND STORM IS DEVELOPING NEAR BRILLIANT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HAMILTON...
  HACKLEBURG...
  WESTON...
  BRINN...
  GUIN...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8803 3432 8783 3417 8778 3410 8765
      3394 8765 3394 8794 3406 8796 3406 8821
      3427 8819 3433 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 270DEG 23KT 3434 8797 3421 8815
          3412 8836