Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Bismarck, ND

376 
WWUS53 KBIS 242242
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
542 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

NDC065-242250-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-120824T2315Z/
OLIVER ND-
542 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OLIVER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4768 10058 4767 10059 4767 10067 4762 10067
      4727 10123 4748 10161 4801 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 229DEG 26KT 4749 10135

$$

NDC055-057-101-242315-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-120824T2315Z/
MCLEAN ND-MERCER ND-WARD ND-
542 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARD...NORTHEASTERN MERCER AND EASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT/515 PM MDT/...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RIVERDALE...OR 52 MILES SOUTH OF MINOT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COLEHARBOR AROUND 555 PM CDT.
THIS STORM WAS CROSSING LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS HIGHWAY 
83 NEAR AND NORTH OF COLE HARBOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE OR RIVER...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE INTO DOCK
AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4768 10058 4767 10059 4767 10067 4762 10067
      4727 10123 4748 10161 4801 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 229DEG 26KT 4749 10135
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

VINING

003 
WWUS53 KBIS 242316
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
616 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

NDC055-057-101-242326-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-120824T2315Z/
MCLEAN ND-MERCER ND-WARD ND-
616 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARD...
NORTHEASTERN MERCER AND EASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER 
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
THE STORM WAS NORTH OF UNDERWOOD AND MOVING NORTHEAST.

LAT...LON 4768 10058 4767 10059 4767 10067 4762 10067
      4727 10123 4748 10161 4801 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 229DEG 26KT 4750 10133

$$

VINING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
419 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EXPECTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...DESPITE RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY. SEE LATEST SWOMCD FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THINKING MOST FAVORABLE AREAS WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE WESTERN
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTERNOON RH
IS NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE DROPPING THE
WARNING WITH THE IMPENDING GUSTY WEST WINDS. WILDFIRES CONTINUE
IN ROUGH TERRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SLOPE COUNTY...AND A FIRE IS
ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN FAR SOUTHERN SIOUX COUNTY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...STILL GETTING VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
INDEX VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN PARTICULAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT
THE WEST WIND WILL BE RATHER STRONG. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN PLAINS/DAKOTAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
HINT OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AND CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE TIMING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES. THUS
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTIONS.

A GRADUAL WARMUP SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE 80S) THROUGH TUESDAY (HIGHS 85
TO 95)...THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
KISN TO KMOT TO NEAR KJMS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN BORDER OF ND AND SD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO
NEAR KHEI TO NEAR KDIK TO EAST OF KISN. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER AND INTO ANOTHER LOW IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AT KISN/KDIK TO SPREAD EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VCTS AT
KBIS/KMOT THROUGH 02Z...AND AT KJMS MAINLY AFTER 22Z THROUGH 06Z.
SHOULD THE FRONT/TROUGH MOVE SLOWER...MAY NEED TO KEEP VCTS GOING
FOR KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LONGER...CONFIDENCE LOW IN SPEED OF TROUGH/FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040>045.

&&

SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040>045-251815-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012 /1204 PM MDT FRI AUG 24 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
ACROSS THE WEST...BUT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-251815-
BURKE-RENVILLE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-MORTON-
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY...GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
DRY FUELS MAY CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-251815-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
457 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

NDZ011-012-019-021-022-242300-
MCHENRY-MCLEAN-MERCER-SHERIDAN-WARD-
457 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FORT STEVENSON STATE PARK...                FALKIRK...
  UNDERWOOD...          GARRISON...           COLEHARBOR...
  TURTLE LAKE...        MAX...                BENEDICT...
  STRAWBERRY LAKE...    RUSO...               LOGAN...
  SAWYER...             BUTTE...              VOLTAIRE...
  VELVA...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

KINNEY