Fire Weather Watch 3, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. ANCILLARY TO
THAT IS THE RECORD HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MIXED TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SASKATCHEWAN. WAA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN THE HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT (APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS AT 850MB) AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO MANITOBA AND DRY A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
90-KNOT JET STREAK PUSHING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO BE DRY...ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD EXIST TO GENERATE ISOLATED ELEVATED
SPRINKLES NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST/ROCKIES WITH A LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT 15 TO 20 MPH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH 60S NORTH. DRY AIR
INTRUDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO 20-25 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST. THERE MAY BE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST SOME MORE HUMID AIR WILL INTRUDE WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY THE LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE LOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED
OVER MONTANA/WYOMING...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH 60S OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. DEWPOINTS ONLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN
THE WEST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/50S CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN
THE SOUTHWEST TO 50 PERCENT FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME INTO PLAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA
MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. ENOUGH ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT HIGHS MONDAY FROM THE 50S
WEST AND 60S EAST...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE LOWER 30S WEST
TO 40S EAST. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AND SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS AFT 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH AND
FALL TO 6-10 KNOTS AFT 00Z...AND INCREASING TO 12-18 KNOTS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AFT 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL
GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
FRIDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND EXTENDED TO THE
NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERATE RECORD HEAT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
SMASHED ON FRIDAY. THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF SITE SPECIFIC
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR EACH
SITE.

FRIDAY MARCH 16

SITE          FORECAST   RECORD  YEAR

WILLISTON        74        70    1981
DICKINSON        79        68    1999
MINOT            75        66    1910
BISMARCK         80        64    1981
JAMESTOWN        75        64    1981

SATURDAY MARCH 17

SITE          FORECAST   RECORD  YEAR

WILLISTON        63        70    1910
DICKINSON        70        66    1910
MINOT            65        69    1910
BISMARCK         71        67    1910
JAMESTOWN        70        69    1968

SUNDAY MARCH 18

SITE          FORECAST   RECORD  YEAR

WILLISTON        75        67    1910
DICKINSON        75        68    2007
MINOT            71        69    1910
BISMARCK         75        70    1910
JAMESTOWN        72        69    1921

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

TM...SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE
JV...LONG TERM/AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-162100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
346 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012 /246 PM MDT THU MAR 15 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY. RECORD WARMTH...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY FUELS MAY
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TM