Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. A NE TO SW BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY NOW WILL CONTINUE THE REST
OF THE EVENING. INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE LINE COOL LOWERING THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN AND SLOW MOVEMENT ALSO HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO 2 INCHES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AT 4 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS SFC LOW
PRES OVER WESTERN PA MOVES INTO WRN NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND CHC FOR TSRA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 500-800 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE VALUES COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SVR TSRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THE MINIMAL SVR WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER. ALTHOUGH, SFC LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NYS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER CNTRL NY WITH WEAK SFC
LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC AND A STRONGER SFC LOW IN THE DELMARVA. SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF I81. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSRA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MAKE FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO
EASTERN CANADA WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM IS FASTER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER
DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE REALIZED. THIS SYSTEM BEING MUCH STRONGER
HAS MORE SUPPORTIVE KINEMATICS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT, WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

WE WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNSETTLED WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER BUT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. BEST SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION IN THIS PERIOD WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH THE
FRONT...DRYING US OUT BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE 0Z EURO IS MUCH
SLOWER AND ACTUALLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THIS MODEL.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO YANK THESE THOUGH IF THE
12Z EURO COMES IN FASTER...MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A
DIGGING H5 TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SENDING MOISTURE ARE WAY BY LATE
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. STILL FEEL THE BETTER THREAT
FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING A PEAK TUESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS
MOVING THROUGH. THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. PERHAPS A SIGN FALL IS NOT
TOO FAR AROUND THE CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...IS NOW CARRYING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KELM-KITH-KSYR AXIS AT 00Z...BOUND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 15-30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
CELLS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY 08Z-12Z AND MAINLY SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME. ON
WEDNESDAY...HEATING OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP. CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR AND LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-FRI AM...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG EARLY EACH
MRNG.
FRI PM...MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSRA POSSIBLE.
SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-151900-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
814 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE ENFIELD           42.44N  76.62W
08/14/2012  M1.30 INCH       TOMPKINS           NY   COCORAHS

            FELL IN 30 MINUTES

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
820 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CORTLAND                42.60N  76.18W
08/14/2012  M1.50 INCH       CORTLAND           NY   PUBLIC

            FELL IN 20 MINUTES

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VIRGIL                  42.52N  76.18W
08/14/2012                   CORTLAND           NY   911 CENTER

            LARGE TREE BLOCKING ROAD ON U.S. ROUTE 11

&&

BLL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>