Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. COOLER...LESS HUMID...AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE... SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SVR TSTM WATCH FOR OUR FINGER
LKS/MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL ZNS. BASED ON MORE PERSISTENT
SUNSHINE/HEATING THESE AREAS THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS (ML CAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500)...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. EXCELLENT 0-1 KM
SHEAR/HELICITY CONTS THESE AREAS AS WELL...SO DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
QLCS TYPE SPIN-UPS APPEAR QUITE PLAUSIBLE.

FARTHER S...WITH A BIT MORE STABLE CONDS AND SOMEWHAT LESS
SHEAR...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WOULD SEEM THE BIGGER CONCERN...WITH
VERY JUICY AMS PRESENT (SFC DEW PTS AOA 70F AND PWATS OF 2 TO
2.2").

WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS AFTN AND EVE.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... USED OBSERVED SAT/RADAR TRENDS...AS
WELL AS THOSE FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO TWEAK POP/WX/SKY GRIDS.

INITIAL BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA...ASSOCD WITH WEAKENING
MCV...CONTS TO PUSH THROUGH THE FA ATTM. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THROUGH THE CWA...OR RELEGATED
TO THE FAR ERN ZNS BY 18Z. BEHIND THIS FIRST BATCH OF PCPN...WE'RE
STILL ANTICIPATING A RELATIVE LULL. VSBL SAT ANIMATION CONTS TO
SHOW SOME HOLES IN THE CLD MASS BACK OVER WRN NY...AND WE THEREFORE
EXPECT A FEW BREAKS OF SUN FOR THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTN HRS.

ANOTHER APPARENT MCV IS EVIDENT ACRS NRN OH/WRN LK ERIE ATTM. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD...AND WE THUS ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ONCE AGN FROM W TO E...STARTING MID-
AFTN...THEN PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVE PD.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CERTAINLY INHIBIT HEATING SOME THIS
AFTN...WE STILL THINK ENOUGH INSOLATION WILL TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW-MID 80S MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW UPR 80S
PSBL IN THE NORMALLY WARMER URBANIZED VLYS. MAX TEMP GRIDS WERE
TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.

AS EXPECTED...SVR POTENTIAL THIS AFTN/EVE IS TIED TO DEGREE OF
HEATING/INSTAB...AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE. 12Z RGNL SOUNDINGS
PORTRAY THIS WELL...SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG SB
CAPE WITH A SFC PARCEL OF 88/70 (ALY AND PIT)...WHILE 84/65 ONLY
YIELDS ABT 800 J/KG (BUF). THE TRUTH WILL LIKELY LIE SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN (1000-1500). IN THE MEANTIME...LOW-LVL SHEAR/HELICITY IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO INTO THIS EVE. DEEP-LYRD
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...ALG WITH MID-LVL
HGT FALLS...AS THE BOTTOM END OF THE MAIN UPR-LVL TROUGH TRACKS
INTO SRN ONT LTR TDY. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING LINEAR DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NY BY EARLY AFTN...THEN
TRACKING EWD THROUGH CNY/NRN TIER PA LTR THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE.
GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PROFILES (STGST SHEAR IN THE LWST 3 KM
AGL)...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND STG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT (BEST TIME FRAME STILL IN THE 4
TO 8 PM EDT PD).

FORTUNATELY...INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD BE MOVING
RATHER QUICKLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCOMING PWAT VALUES AOA 2"...AND
DECREASING MBE VECTORS THIS AFTN/EVE (SPCLY ERN ZNS)...WE'LL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY TRAINING CELLS.

IT STILL APPEARS FROPA WILL OCCUR FROM W TO E BETWEEN ABT 03Z AND
09Z...WITH DRYING/IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AND WILL MAKE FOR SOME BEAUTIFUL LATE
SUMMER DAYS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE...H85 TEMPS OF 9C
TO 11C WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...IT WILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE VERSUS THE HOT AND STEAMY WEATHER WE HAVE HAD THE PAST
FEW DAYS. TEMPS REBOUND A BIT TUESDAY AS WE GET INTO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AGAIN PUSHING H85 TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE
CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT. OVERALL THE TREND
WILL BE DRY AND HOT WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO
BECOMING MUCH MORE UNSETTLED AND COOLER.

HEIGHTS FALL LATE WEDNESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BUT MOST
OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY. A BETTER SHOT AT STORMS WILL COME
THURSDAY AS H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS WAVE
MORPHS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE
PLACEMENT OF CUT OFF LOWS IS ALWAYS TRICKY AND FAR FROM A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FF THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW REMAINS
CONSISTENT...IT WOULD PLACE US IN A FAVORABLE FLOW (SOUTHERLY) FOR
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS THROUGH
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH NEAR 90
READINGS IN THE LAKE PLAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF...COOLER AIR
ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MAIN IMPACT FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NY NOW. HIGHEST IMPACT WILL BE AT
KSYR AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KRME AND FAR SOUTH AS KITH.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TEMPO PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
VSBYS HERE. WITH KSYR BEING THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE STRONG
WINDS...ALSO INCLUDED GUSTS TO 45 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. FARTHER
SOUTH AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP MUCH HARDER TO NAIL DOWN EXACT TIMING OF
STORMS BUT STILL LIKE AN IDEA OF A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING HERE CONTINUED MVFR VSYBS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TERMINALS. UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AND MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z NORTH...TO 09Z DOWN AT KAVP. VFR
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN LATE TONIGHT..WITH VFR MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT
KITH AND KSYR WHERE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS VEER INTO
THE WEST EARLY TONIGHT AND MAY BE GUSTY EARLY...ESPECIALLY KSYR
AND KRME. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND VEER INTO THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...VFR.

WED/THUR..MOSTLY VFR BUT MVFR IN STORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI...MVFR IN STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-060800-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. YOU COULD ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BGM

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

RRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
111 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-052130-
CHEMUNG-CORTLAND-MADISON-NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-SENECA-
SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-STEUBEN-TOMPKINS-YATES-
111 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGIONS...INCLUDING SUCH PLACES AS PENN YAN...
SENECA FALLS...AUBURN...WATKINS GLEN...SYRACUSE...MORRISVILLE...
ROME...AND UTICA...ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY MANY OF THE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES...INCLUDING FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

PAZ043-047-052000-
LUZERNE PA-WYOMING PA-
308 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LUZERNE AND SOUTHWESTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES...

* AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  HUNTINGTON MILLS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUNTINGTON MILLS AT 315 PM EDT...
  SWEET VALLEY AND MUHLENBERG AT 330 PM EDT...
  PIKES CREEK AT 340 PM EDT...
  STULL AT 345 PM EDT...
  LEHMAN AT 350 PM EDT...
  HARVEYS LAKE AND RUGGLES AT 355 PM EDT...
  DALLAS AND FERN BROOK AT 400 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4116 7630 4121 7633 4129 7632 4136 7629
      4148 7591 4124 7581

DJP