Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Binghamton, NY

July 23, 2012Oneida County, New York

NWS Binghamton, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 23, 2012, 8:02 PM EDT for Oneida County, New York. It was in force for 28 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2012, 8:02 PM EDT (00:02 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2012, 8:30 PM EDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Binghamton, NY
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Oneida County, NY

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where
Jul 23, 8:03 PM EDT	HAIL 0.75	Hawkins Corner, NY
Jul 23, 8:15 PM EDT	HAIL 1.25	Stittville, NY
Jul 23, 8:30 PM EDT	HAIL 1	Stittville, NY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 13 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 23, 1:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	10 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1455 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -84 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 862 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 191 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 269 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

100 
WUUS51 KBGM 240002
SVRBGM
NYC065-240030-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0076.120724T0002Z-120724T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
802 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT.

* AT 800 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  DELTA LAKE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLOYD AND STEUBEN BY 808 PM EDT...
  6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORISKANY BY 812 PM EDT...
  STITTVILLE AND HOLLAND PATENT BY 814 PM EDT...
  TRENTON BY 818 PM EDT...
  BARNVELD AND TRENTON FALLS BY 820 PM EDT...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4330 7514 4326 7515 4324 7510 4323 7506
      4320 7508 4311 7515 4309 7519 4322 7556
      4338 7546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 293DEG 30KT 4327 7540

$$

MLJ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 23, 3:44 PM EDT, 4 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 3:44 PM EDT, 4 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA FROM ONTARIO. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SPC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MLCAPES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) SHEAR VALUES HAVE BEEN ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ABOUT 25 TO 30 KTS...
THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME SEVERE STORMS.

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING INCREASING THE WIND SHEAR
SIGNIFICANTLY. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40 KTS BY 03Z. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THIS
SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... THEN EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AS THE
DRY AIR ALOFT SWEEPS OVER THE AREA INHIBITING THE CONVECTION. THIS
BRIEF LULL MAY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPES
REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH STRONG
SHEAR IN PLACE ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRY COOLER WEATHER WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TAKE A TURN
FOR THE WORSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BARE DOWN ON THE REGION. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN
RECENT DAYS...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...VERY SLOW
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR REGION IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FCST MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE FIRST ROUND OF SHWRS WILL BE UPON
US BY 12Z THU AS STRONG L0W-LEVEL JET WINDS OF ROUGHLY 40 KTS
ASCEND A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE
PROVIDED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS REGION WILL
RESIDE UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. CURRENTLY MODELS
TAKE THE SFC LOW EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS SUGGESTED JUST NORTH
OF OUR FCST AREA ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THAT
SAID...IF CONDITIONS WORK OUT AS ADVERTISED...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

BEYOND THIS...THE GFS QUICKLY EXITS THE SFC LOW STAGE RIGHT WHICH
WOULD SET UP A TEMPORARY LULL ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGEST THE SFC
LOW WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. QUICK LOOK AT THE
CANADIAN-CMC MODEL FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND THUS WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...NEXT MAJOR TROUGH TO ENTER THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHWRS AND STORMS BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. EXPECT NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. A
BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SECOND
ROUND IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF'S.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR.

TUE NGT...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

WED...VFR.

THU...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ELM/BGM/AVP.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/SLI
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 3:18 PM EDT, 4 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-241930-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
318 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

MSE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 23, 7:20 PM EDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
720 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             MONTROSE                41.83N  75.88W
07/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       SUSQUEHANNA        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MJN

Local storm report, Jul 23, 7:31 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             ROME                    43.23N  75.49W
07/23/2012  M1.75 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JML

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 7:31 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NYZ046-240000-
OTSEGO NY-
731 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OTSEGO COUNTY...

* AT 728 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COOPERSTOWN...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MIDDLEFIELD AND EAST SPRINGFIELD AT 740 PM EDT...
  CHERRY VALLEY AND WESTFORD AT 750 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4268 7503 4286 7499 4286 7496 4283 7492
      4284 7490 4285 7489 4284 7466 4283 7464
      4276 7466 4265 7463 4261 7463

DJP

Local storm report, Jul 23, 7:35 PM EDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
735 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             ROME                    43.23N  75.49W
07/23/2012  M2.00 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JML

Local storm report, Jul 23, 7:39 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             ROME                    43.23N  75.49W
07/23/2012  M1.75 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LASTED FOR 6 MINUTES. ALSO ESTIMATE 60 MPH WIND GUST

&&

JML

Local storm report, Jul 23, 7:51 PM EDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANDYVILLE              41.14N  75.04W
07/23/2012                   PIKE               PA   911 CENTER

            WIDESPREAD TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

DJP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Binghamton, NY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 23, 8:18 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BGM	Oneida	107 min
Jul 23, 8:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Oneida	45 min
Jul 23, 8:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Madison	37 min
Jul 23, 9:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Otsego	47 min
Jul 23, 9:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Oneida, Otsego	41 min
Jul 23, 10:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Oneida	59 min
Jul 23, 11:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Madison, Oneida	53 min
Jul 23, 11:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Madison, Oneida, Onondaga	56 min
Jul 24, 12:21 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chenango, Madison, Oneida, Otsego	39 min
Jul 24, 12:36 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Steuben	54 min
Jul 24, 1:02 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Steuben	43 min
Jul 24, 1:05 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Otsego	40 min
Jul 24, 1:33 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Delaware	42 min
Jul 24, 1:46 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Steuben	44 min
Jul 24, 2:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Tioga	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.