Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
408 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY BUT THERE STILL IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY, MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 4 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
AREA AS A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NRN CWA. ML CAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TIL EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AN DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO PULSE SEVERE AND SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS. WITH VERY LIMITED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OR STRONG FORCING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NOT LIKELY.

BY EARLY EVENING ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
WILL LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SFC HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE PARTLY TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NE PA IN
VCNTY OF OLD BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND PRIMARILY DRY ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SHARPEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSING AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE BUT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING
SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGH PWAT AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES. TOTAL QPF OF .75 - 1.50 INCHES LOOKS PROBABLE WITH
FROPA. DUE TO STRONG WIND FIELDS ANY SUNSHINE SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SVR THUNDERSTORMS. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING POPS
WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH CAT POPS EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER FROPA. AIRMASS FOLLOWING FRONT
DROPS DOWN TO 5C AFTER 06Z. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DUE TO LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH BETTER THREAT NRN CWA NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE AN EXITING TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS DO
LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LAKE RESPONSE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
850MB TEMPS TO BE AROUND 2C. GIVEN THIS, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH INCREASING
500MB HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON MONDAY, HAVE KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A 500MB RIDGE,
SHOULD KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD QUIET.

THERE WILL BE A COOL DOWN IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS, THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKING TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING, SOME SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, WILL DEVELOP. WITH ONLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORECAST, AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE MID DECK WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THIS WILL HAMPER ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE EXCEPTION IS KELM, WHERE SOME CLEARING MAY
OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS TODAY ARE VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS. THEY WILL GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NW
AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...GENERALLY VFR.

SAT/SUN...IFR/MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MON THRU WED...VFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR IN THE MORNING DUE TO FOG.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...SLI
AVIATION...SLI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-071930-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-
326 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO EARLY MORNING RAIN AND
CLOUDS...ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-071930-
DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
326 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT.
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO EARLY MORNING RAIN AND
CLOUDS...ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             HORSEHEADS              42.17N  76.83W
09/06/2012  E1.25 INCH       CHEMUNG            NY   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. LASTED FOR 15
            MINUTES. ALSO TREES DOWN.

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
459 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             OWEGO                   42.10N  76.26W
09/06/2012  E1.50 INCH       TIOGA              NY   PUBLIC

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
507 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             CHEMUNG                 42.00N  76.62W
09/06/2012  M1.00 INCH       CHEMUNG            NY   PUBLIC

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
508 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             WAVERLY                 42.01N  76.54W
09/06/2012  M0.75 INCH       TIOGA              NY   PUBLIC

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
515 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND GST     APALACHIN               42.07N  76.17W
09/06/2012  E58 MPH          TIOGA              NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
516 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             ATHENS                  41.95N  76.52W
09/06/2012  M0.75 INCH       BRADFORD           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JML