Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Watches in 2012
Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm watch at Dec 18, 2012, 4:18 PM EST for 20 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Dec 20, 2012, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 18, 2012, 4:18 PM EST (21:18 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 20, 2012, 7:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 19, 2012, 4:06 PM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
Counties Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 446 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -23 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
576 WWUS43 KAPX 182118 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 418 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HEADING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... .LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND TRACK NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY. MIZ008-015>029-031>034-190530- /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1200Z-121221T1800Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX- LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE... PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT... MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...MANISTEE...CADILLAC... LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE 418 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IMPACTS... * SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY...AND INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. * SNOW WILL BE OF THE WET AND HEAVY VARIETY...DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND TRAVEL IN. * SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. * NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ030-035-041-190530- /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1800Z-121221T1800Z/ ALCONA-OGEMAW-GLADWIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...GLADWIN 418 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OR SLEET AT TIMES. THIS MAKES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH MORE UNCERTAIN. * SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL LIKELY OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRIDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ JPB
5 follow-up statements
019 WWUS43 KAPX 190346 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1046 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HEADING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... .LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND TRACK NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY. MIZ008-015>029-031>034-191200- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1200Z-121221T1800Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX- LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE... PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT... MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...MANISTEE...CADILLAC... LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE 1046 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IMPACTS... * SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY...AND INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. * SNOW WILL BE OF THE WET AND HEAVY VARIETY...DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND TRAVEL IN. * SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. * NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ030-035-041-191200- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1800Z-121221T1800Z/ ALCONA-OGEMAW-GLADWIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...GLADWIN 1046 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OR SLEET AT TIMES. THIS MAKES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH MORE UNCERTAIN. * SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL LIKELY OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRIDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$
414 WWUS43 KAPX 191010 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 510 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SET TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALREADY BE OVERSPREADING NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND GUSTY WILL PERSIST IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES OF EASTERN UPPER...AND MORE SO IN THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. MIZ008-015>023-025>028-031>033-191815- /O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1200Z-121221T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX- LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA- CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE... PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT... MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY 510 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. IMPACTS... * PROGRESSIVELY TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ024-029-030-034-035-041-191815- /O.EXT.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-GLADWIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...GLADWIN 510 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY REACH 6 TO 12 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOWFALL WILL MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTAL EXPECTATIONS. IMPACTS... * POTENTIALLY TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY...THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ SMD
742 WWUS43 KAPX 191607 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1107 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SET TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES OF EASTERN UPPER...AND MORE SO IN THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. MIZ008-015>023-025>028-031>033-200015- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX- LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA- CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE... PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT... MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY 1107 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. IMPACTS... * TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN... WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ024-029-030-034-035-041-200015- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-GLADWIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...GLADWIN 1107 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING... AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOWFALL WILL MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES... RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTAL EXPECTATIONS. IMPACTS... * POTENTIALLY TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN... WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY...THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ ARNOTT
879 WWUS43 KAPX 191654 CCA WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1153 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SET TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MIZ008-015>023-025>028-031>033-200115- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX- LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA- CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE... PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT... MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY 1153 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. IMPACTS... * TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN... WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ024-029-030-034-035-041-200115- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-GLADWIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...GLADWIN 1153 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING... AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOWFALL WILL MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES... RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTAL EXPECTATIONS. IMPACTS... * POTENTIALLY TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN... WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY...THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ ARNOTT
957 WWUS43 KAPX 192106 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 406 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SET TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MIZ024-029-034-201200- /O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0007.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ ALPENA-OSCODA-ROSCOMMON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HOUGHTON LAKE 406 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SNOWFALL WILL MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING... RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL EXCEED 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE PRECIPITATION STAYS PREDOMINATELY SNOW. IMPACTS... * POTENTIALLY TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN... WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ008-015>023-025>028-201200- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX- LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA- CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE... PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT... MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...GRAYLING 406 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. IMPACTS... * TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN... WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ031>033-201200- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY 406 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES LATER THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE PRECIPITATION STAYS PREDOMINATELY SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IMPACTS... * TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN... WHILE ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ030-035-041-201200- /O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0004.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0015.121220T1200Z-121222T0000Z/ ALCONA-OGEMAW-GLADWIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...GLADWIN 406 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING QUICKLY TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COUNTIES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IMPACTS... * POTENTIALLY TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * HEAVY WET SNOWS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE AND DRIVE IN. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY AND VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Dec 18, 4:03 PM EST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 18, 4:03 PM EST, 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
403 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL TURN MORE
NEWSWORTHY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AS THE STORM DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL BLAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND PLENTY OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOWS. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING QUITE
LIKELY OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
SANDWICHED BETWEEN SLOWLY DEPARTING EAST COAST STORM AND RATHER
COMPACT SHORTWAVE SPINNING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LATTER
FEATURE HAS PROVED KINDA INTERESTING...WITH POTENT...BUT TRANSIENT
FGEN DYNAMICS ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY KICKING OFF A BAND OF NEAR
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES (A COUPLE INCHES TOTAL) ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MORE ON IF THIS WILL IMPACT US LATER.
OTHERWISE...RATHER SURPRISE APPEARANCE OF SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER AND SOUTH OF M-72 THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING
TEMPERATURES WARM A TOUCH ABOVE WHAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
AND...HARD TO BELIEVE (YEA...RIGHT)...STILL SOME LINGERING VERY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ROTATING INTO THE TIP OF
THE MITT IN VERY LIGHT WSW FLOW REGIME. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT
REMAIN RATHER TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM ILLINOIS
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
TOUGH CALL IF UPSTREAM FGEN BAND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS NOT PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING
ANY GUIDANCE...WITH A TOUCH NORTHWARD DISPLACED AND MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF SNOW THAN ANY HAD SUGGESTED. STILL THINK THIS FEATURE WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING AS IT SHEARS OUT...WITH FGEN
DYNAMICS DOING THE SAME. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE
SNOW ACTIVITY REMAINING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW DOWN NEAR M-55 INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL. ELSEWHERE...CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN STORY
...ESPECIALLY IN LIEU OF SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING. HAVE TO
BELIEVE WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME (ESSENTIALLY GOING CALM) LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TRAPPED BELOW H90 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALLOWING CURRENT REMAINING CLOUD DECK TO SIMPLY SPREAD
OUT BENEATH IT. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND PESSIMISTICALLY (OFTEN THE
SAFE WAY TO GO THIS TIME OF YEAR)...AND REINTRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT...LIGHT
WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE INDUCED VORTICES. HIGH
RES NAM-WRF AND LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOW WHITEFISH BAY/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN AS FAVORED AREAS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE TOO BIG A DEAL...BUT
ENVISION AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN
AND AROUND THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES SIMPLY A CONSENSUS BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TO
AROUND 30 NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. OF COURSE...ANY
UNANTICIPATED CLEARING WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: INITIAL FLOW PATTERN MOSTLY FLAT
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST AND DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY CENTERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAK 999MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF THESE ABOVE MENTIONED VORTICITY CENTERS. MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE ON DIGGING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE...AS IT BOTTOMS OUT ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY AND SPINS UP A LEE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS LOW THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA BEFORE
HOOKING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (A LOT LIKE THE COMPROMISE TRACK
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST WAS BASED ON). IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM WILL
DOMINATE THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...WITH THINGS STARTING TO
COME INTO A BIT MORE FOCUS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...SHEAR VORTICITY
AXIS/LATENT PV ANOMALY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE MORNING WITH ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 140KT JET STREAK BOWS NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...BUT
THINK WE'LL TREND TOWARDS MORE SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME LOWER 40S.
ACTION GETS GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW SHARPENS WITH MAIN
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE
INTO MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO BE OVERCOME...
SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE INITIAL ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...CONCERN AREAS ARE AROUND THE
NORTHERN LOWER SHORELINE AREAS (EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE STRAITS/
NORTHEAST LOWER OFF LAKE HURON...DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE). FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE SIMPLE AND
GO WITH ALL SNOW...WITH 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF A CVX-GLR-OSC LINE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
BRUNT OF THE EVENT WILL GET GOING THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS INJECTED INTO THE SYSTEM AND WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION RATES. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR THAT WILL NEED TO BE
DEALT WITH IS VARYING DEPICTIONS OF MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY LATER THURSDAY. ALSO GUIDANCE
DEPICTION OF TROWAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO SOMEWHAT SPREAD OUT...
GFS/GGEM FARTHER SOUTH AND PLOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER...NAM-WRF/ECMWF FARTHER NORTH AND MORE
FOCUSED ON EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE BASED
ON THE LATTER. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...TREND CERTAINLY LOOKS TOWARD
MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT
EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MAGNITUDE
AND POSITION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SLEET/ICE PELLETS
ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. NAM-WRF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND DON'T WANT TO GO TOO FAR AT THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY
OF TIME TO ADJUST DETAILS DESPITE THE HYPE MACHINE ALREADY GOING
INTO OVERDRIVE. THINK WE'LL HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW FROM
APN-IKW AND EAST...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS THROWN IN ALONG THE
TRANSITION. WILL GO WITH SNOW ELSEWHERE AND ADJUST LATER. THIS
MIXED PRECIP ISSUE WILL ALSO RESULT IN DOWNPLAYING SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE SOUTH OF APN ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
PROBABLY CAN'T PROPERLY SIMULATE THE AMOUNT GRADIENT IN THE GRIDDED
DATABASE. SNOW RATIOS WILL ALSO VARY...BUT PROBABLY BE ON THE
WET/HEAVY SIDE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. IN GENERAL HAVE 8+
INCHES FROM MBL-GLR-PZQ AND NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...
TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH AROUND GLADWIN-ARENAC-IOSCO
COUNTIES. ALL THIS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE OF COURSE. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING IMPACT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ENTIRE SYSTEM CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE.
ABOVE MENTIONED DRY SLOTTING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FROM A QPF
STANDPOINT ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AT
LEAST DURING THE EVENING. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WILL ALSO REMAIN A
PROBLEM ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES SOUTH OF ALPENA
UNTIL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER OF
3-5 INCHES...TAPERING DOWN TO 2 INCHES OR LESS FOR
ALCONA-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF AN MBL-GOV-PZQ LINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THUS NEEDLESS
TO SAY WILL BE HOISTING WINTER STORM WATCHES WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. ALL COUNTIES WILL BE INCLUDED EXCEPT FOR IOSCO-ARENAC
COUNTIES GIVEN PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. GLADWIN-OGEMAW-ALCONA COUNTIES
COULD BE A PROBLEM AS WELL WITH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
TYPE ISSUES...BUT FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES HAVE ADDED THEM IN AS
WELL BUT WITH A THURSDAY AFTERNOON START TIME.
BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE WINDING DOWN...BUT NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL BE KICKING IN...AS IF THERE ISN'T
ENOUGH ALREADY. PROBABLY A COUPLE INCHES ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...BUT ENOUGH DETAILS WITH THE STORM ITSELF TO WORRY
ABOUT.
JPB
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM...WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT
850-700MB NOT MOIST ENOUGH AT FIRST FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE
SATURDAY..THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF 850-700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REACHING 60 PERCENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE QG
FORCING...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXACT WIND REGIME...NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL BE DETERMINED LATER...JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FORECAST EXACT WIND DIRECTIONS THIS FAR OUT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW BREAKS DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ONCE AGAIN.
TJL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012
PRETTY MUCH STATUS-QUO THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WIND REGIME. NEED TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
KTVC AND KMBL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY TRAPPED
BELOW LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A FLAT
GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING STORM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR CERTAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED AT LEAST WITHIN LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PUT UP A GALE
WATCH ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO COVER THIS...MAY SEE SOME STORM FORCE
GUSTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-015>029-031>034.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ030-035-041.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/TJL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPBHazardous weather outlook, Dec 18, 3:58 AM EST, 12 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 358 AM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 191200- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 358 AM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM. HOWEVER...TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. AS THE STORM DEPARTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE NEEDED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX (ALL LOWERCASE) LAWRENCE/SMD
The office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 3:59 PM EST | Gale Watch | APX | 14 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Watches in Michigan, 2012Every winter storm watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.