Small Craft Advisory 80, NWS Gaylord, MI

669 
WHUS73 KAPX 110717
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

LHZ348-349-111530-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120811T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0081.120811T0717Z-120812T0900Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-111530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120811T2100Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-111530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120811T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ344>346-111530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-120812T0300Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-111530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120812T0300Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-111530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120812T0900Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

345 
WHUS73 KAPX 111505
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1105 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

LSZ321-322-112100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120811T2100Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1105 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-112100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120811T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
1105 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ344>346-112315-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-120812T0300Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1105 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-112315-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120812T0300Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1105 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-112315-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120812T0900Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
1105 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-112315-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-120812T0900Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1105 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

359 
WHUS73 KAPX 112000
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-112100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120811T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LMZ344>346-120300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-120812T0300Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-120300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120812T0300Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-120400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-120812T0900Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-120400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120812T0900Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

467 
WHUS73 KAPX 120132
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
932 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

LMZ323-342-120245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120812T0300Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
932 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LMZ344>346-120245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-120812T0300Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
932 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ347-120900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-120812T0900Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
932 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-120900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-120812T0900Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
932 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1042 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

RAINY...COOL...AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT ON THE GREAT LAKES. PERIODS OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN LOWER...CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...AND WILL TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THOUGH UPPER CLOUDS WRAPPING WWD ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW
HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY PAST FEW HOURS...RAIN HAS MANAGED TO WRAP
BACK WWD ACROSS I-75 CORRIDOR IN FAR NRN LOWER. ALBEIT LIGHT ON
WEST EDGE...RAIN HAS REACHED A LINE FROM PLN TO WRN CHARLEVOIX
COUNTY TO JUST E OF TVC. MEANWHILE...FARTHER NORTH THE LIGHT RAIN
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS CHIP AND MACK. THE SAULT IS STILL
LIKELY SEVERAL HOURS FROM SEEING ANY LIGHT RAIN - AT BEST.

CONTINUING EARLIER TRENDS...UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS A WESTWARD
NUDGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. RAIN WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD EAST OF
I-75/US-127 CORRIDOR...AND MORE SCATTERED WEST. HAVE ALSO BUMPED
LOW TEMPS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO...BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO PRECIP FURTHER WEST NEAR FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. PREVIOUS FORECAST DOING VERY NICELY SOUTH
OF M-32. BUT FGEN/DEFORMATION FORCING CONTRIBUTING TO PRECIP BEING
THROWN BACK TO THE WEST MORE THAN EXPECTED NEAR ROGERS CITY/DETOUR
VILLAGE.

RADAR/SPOTTER REPORTS SUGGEST 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SO
FAR IN THE FAR SE ZONES. THIS STEADY...DRAWN-OUT PRECIP EVENT HAS
NOT RESULTED IN FLOODING (PER CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS)...AND
WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO UNLESS IT LASTED FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
STILL...WILL CERTAINLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON PRECIP AMOUNTS IN NE
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

IMPRESSIVE...TO SAY THE LEAST. FALL/WINTER LIKE STORM SYSTEM IN ALL
ITS GLORY FULLY WRAPPED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEP MID
LEVEL LOW PINWHEELING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH ITS
SURFACE LIKENESS JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
PHENOMENAL DEFORMATION/TROWAL/FGEN DYNAMICS AND WARM CORE RAIN
PROCESS PRODUCING PRODIGIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS NOW EXCEEDING 6 INCHES IN THE SAGINAW BAY
REGION...AND WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS IN NEARBY LOCALES.
CLOSER TO HOME...MAIN RAIN SHIELD STILL CLIPPING AREAS DOWN NEAR
SAGINAW BAY (REPORTING NOWHERE NEAR THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS JUST TO
THEIR SOUTH)...WITH SPOTTY LIGHTER RAINS AND SPRINKLES A TIER OR TWO
OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. DEEP AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER DRY...AND SEVERAL DEGREES
MILDER THAN THEIR SOUTHEAST COUNTERPARTS (MID 60S/LOWER 70S COMPARED
TO THE FALL LIKE UPPER 50S IN RAIN-SOAKED AREAS). GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ONLY ADDING ADDITIONAL CHILL...AND SURE MAKING
PLENTY WONDER WHERE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THIS RECORD BREAKING
SUMMER HAS GONE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY.

UNSEASONABLE SYSTEM HAS JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL/WEAKEN AS IT PIVOTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST...REACHING
VICINITY PORT ELGIN ONTARIO BY MORNING. RAIN INTENSITY SHOULD FOLLOW
SUITE...WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING INTENSITIES AS THE RAIN PIVOTS
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS...HOWEVER...EASILY SUPPORT
CATEGORICAL RAINS FOR NORTHEAST LOWER...WITH TRENDS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE RAINS...WITH INTERSTATE
75 ABOUT BEING THAT EDGE. OF COURSE...WILL HEDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WEST WITH AT LEAST SOME RAIN POSSIBILITIES...BUT STILL THINK HEAVIEST
AND STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE M-33 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST. DESPITE WEAKENING 850MB LOW LEVEL INFLOW...THINK A GOOD
SOAKING IS IN STORE...WITH AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AVERAGING AN
INCH OR TWO...GREATEST DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD BEHAVE GIVEN EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY RAIN FREE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAINS MOVING INTO
FAR EASTERN UPPER BY VERY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH
GOING NOWHERE...WITH READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TO KICK OFF
THE WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LIKELY TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST LOWER/PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO
CONTINUE...HOWEVER...RESULTING IN ANOTHER EARLY FALL LIKE DAY AS
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

LARGE SCALE ANALYSIS/FORECAST: MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS.  ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
(AS WELL AS UP NEAR THE NORTH POLE) WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON.  MEAN
TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSTREAM PATTERN
BECOMES RATHER BLOCKY...IN FACT MAY EVEN RETROGRADE A BIT.  ALSO
APPEARS THAT PIECE OF THE CHILLY ARCTIC STORM MAY DIG INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK (FORECAST
HEIGHTS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN).

NEAR TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF GEORGIAN BAY
BY SATURDAY EVENING.  OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND MOST
AREAS COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER
(PERHAPS AIDED BY A BIT OF LAKE INSTABILITY).  DRIER AIR BEGINNING
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
THIN WEST OF US-131 BY SATURDAY EVENING.  CLOUDS MAY TEND TO HANG ON
ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
A DEFINITE DRYING TREND IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH MICHIGAN BETWEEN
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
MIDWEST.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID
AUGUST HIGHS (MID 70S TO NEAR 80).

LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE
GETS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.  LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY AND THICKEN UP THE
CLOUD COVER...AS MAIN SHORT WAVE AND LOW/MID LEVEL REFLECTION MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.  SOME INDICATIONS OF
NORTHERN FRINGES OF DEEPER MOISTURE REACHING INTO CENTRAL LOWER
COUNTIES.  MEANWHILE...WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY
STEEP...ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH PERHAPS 500+ J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS THE U.P..  SO MAYBE SOME THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO POP DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAVE USED A
MODIFIED VERSION OF SREF POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BASICALLY
KEEPS THE STRAITS AREA SOUTH TO M-72 DRY ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
DETAILS WITH MONDAY'S SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRAGS INTO THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WHICH WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN
FOR TUESDAY.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...THOUGH TIMING MOST DEFINITELY UP IN THE AIR.  BUT
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE OFFING TO END NEXT
WEEK...AND A NICE LITTLE PRECIP EVENT TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

VFR MBL/TVC/PLN. MVFR WITH -RA/BR AT APN...IFR CIGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

LOW PRESSURE A BIT NE OF PT HURON WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT...AND NE-WARD TOWARD GEORGIAN BAY ON
SATURDAY. RAIN BAND ON N/W SIDE OF LOW WILL IMPACT APN THRU SAT
MORNING...BEFORE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST. PRESENTLY MVFR VSBYS AT
APN IN RA/BR. EXPECTING CIGS TO COME DOWN AT ANY TIME THERE...AND
EVENTUALLY THE MARGINAL IFR CIGS NOW SEEN AT OSCODA (BKN010
PRESENTLY) WILL MIGRATE NORTH TO APN. ELSEWHERE...NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...WITH SOME 4-5K CIGS AT TIMES. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
LAST INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY RELAXING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LHZ348-349 ON LAKE HURON...WILL ALLOW GALE
WARNINGS TO EXPIRE IN FAVOR OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. STURGEON
PT LIGHT CONTINUES TO GUST AROUND 40 KTS THIS EVENING...WITH IDEAL
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SCENARIO AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
FAR SRN LAKE HURON. MODELS DO FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HOLDING
STEADY BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE WILDCARD IS IMPACT
OF WARM LAKE HURON WATER TEMPS ON SURFACE LOW AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
SRN LAKE HURON. THIS MAY KEEP GRADIENT TIGHTER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347.
     LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
        344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...FEF
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
111100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
955 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT
SOUTH...AND OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE
ISLE LIGHT SOUTH.

THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ON
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA NEXT TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
533 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ALGER                   44.12N  84.12W
08/10/2012  M1.03 INCH       ARENAC             MI   FOREST SERVICE

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200767

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
538 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST TAWAS              44.28N  83.48W
08/10/2012  M1.35 INCH       IOSCO              MI   MESONET

            DAILY TOTAL THRU 530 PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200768

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
549 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HEAVY RAIN       AU GRES                 44.04N  83.69W
08/10/2012  M2.00 INCH       ARENAC             MI   PUBLIC

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 530 PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200769

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
610 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S OMER                44.01N 83.86W
08/10/2012  M1.75 INCH       ARENAC             MI   SPOTTER

            24HR TOTAL ENDING 6PM EDT. HOWEVER 0.70 INCHES FELL IN
            THE 4HRS.

&&

SWR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
612 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S OMER                44.01N 83.86W
08/10/2012  M1.75 INCH       ARENAC             MI   SPOTTER

            24HR TOTAL ENDING 6PM EDT. HOWEVER 0.70 INCHES FELL IN
            THE PAST 4HRS.

&&

SWR