Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Gaylord, MI

297 
WHUS73 KAPX 120840
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
340 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

LMZ344>346-121645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0003.120112T1200Z-120113T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
340 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ322-121645-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.120113T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
340 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-121645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.120112T1200Z-120114T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
340 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-121645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.120113T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
340 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-121645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.120113T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
340 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

424 
WHUS73 KAPX 121545
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1045 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

LMZ344>346-122345-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120113T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1045 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-122345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1045 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-122345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.120113T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1045 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-122345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.120113T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1045 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

036 
WHUS73 KAPX 122112
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

LMZ344>346-130515-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120113T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
412 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-130515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
412 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-130515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.120113T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
412 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-130515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.120113T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
412 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

434 
WHUS73 KAPX 130314
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1014 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

LMZ344>346-131000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120113T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1014 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-131000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1014 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-131000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1014 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-131000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1014 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

119 
WHUS73 KAPX 131005
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
505 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

LMZ344>346-131815-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120113T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
505 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-131815-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0000Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
505 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-131815-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
505 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-131815-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
505 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

169 
WHUS73 KAPX 131611
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1111 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

LMZ344>346-132200-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120113T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1111 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-140015-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1111 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-140015-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1111 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0000Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1111 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

359 
WHUS73 KAPX 132053
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

LMZ344>346-140400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120113T2200Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
353 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-132200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0000Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
353 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-132200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
353 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ347>349-140500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T1000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
353 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-140400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
353 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

590 
WHUS73 KAPX 140307
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1007 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

LHZ347>349-140415-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T1000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1007 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-140415-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120114T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1007 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
926 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 331 PM/

LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN STARTING
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AJS

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 926 PM/...TONIGHT

WHILE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL CERTAINLY BRING A CONTINUATION OF
RATHER TRANQUIL WX...THEY DO COME WITH A FEW ISSUES...NAMELY CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MORNING. EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS PLACES A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY
STATES...WITH ASSOCIATED 996MB SFC LOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF
LOUISVILLE. ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THIS FEATURE UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...TIED TO REMNANTS OF EARLIER WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH IS NOTED DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 02Z ON THE
HEELS OF 85+ KNOT JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SATELLITE OBS SHOW QUITE THE THICK HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IMPINGING UPON
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...DRIVEN BY ELONGATING DEFORMATION AXIS
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER FEATURES...WITH A LOWER STRATUS DECK GRADUALLY
FILLING BACK WESTWARD OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. RADAR ANALYSIS
ALSO SHOWS A RATHER BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ARCING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER...ALSO DRIVEN BY DEFORMATION
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT ONGOING DOWN THAT WAY.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD
COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. ALL THE WHILE...STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS OF SUB-925MB FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
TAPPING OF LOWER STRATUS DECK/MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS OHIO WILL
OCCUR...WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK LIKELY SPILLING INTO NORTHEAST LOWER
BEFORE 12Z. IN BETWEEN ITS ARRIVAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE INDEED
POSSIBLE PER GOING FCST WITHIN SLACK FLOW REGIME AND WITHIN RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS. IN FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW OBS TANKING DOWN
TOWARD 1/2 MILE AT TIMES...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL. BIGGER
QUESTION IS WILL PRECIP REACH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD JAUNT.
ANSWER IS PROBABLY YES...AND PER BOTH GUIDANCE AND RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE UPPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 09Z TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKING LIKE JUST PLAIN RAIN GIVEN WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TO START AND LITTLE ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DIP BENEATH THICKENING CLOUD
SHIELD AND PERSISTENT LIGHT WIND. FCST RAOBS SHOW MELTING LAYERS UP
AROUND 2KFT...AND THIS IS INDEED POSSIBLE GIVEN 00Z APX RAOB SHOWING
A FREEZING LEVEL AT A WHOPPING 6.5KFT! ALONG THIS SAME LINE...GOING
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE LOOK GREAT.

LAWRENCE

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 331 PM/...THURSDAY AND BEYOND

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR OUR NEXT UPCOMING WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THAT
THE UPCOMING SETUP IS CERTAINLY NOT ONE WOULD CALL
TEXTBOOK...RATHER IT IS A VERY UNIQUE PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY
THROW US A FEW SURPRISES AS IT UNFOLDS.

MODEL TRENDS:  GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN STEPPING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO A
PRETTY STEADFAST ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE PRIMARY
CHANGES BEING TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO THE SURFACE
LOW...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY...AND A LOW TRACK THAT
REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA /RATHER THAN PUSHING OVER IT
AS HAD BEEN SUGGESTED YESTERDAY BY THE NAM/ AS THE UPPER FEATURE
DOESN/T QUITE HAVE THE STRENGTH TO PULL THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ALL THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST.  THIS RESULTS IN A CONSENSUS POSITION
OF THE H7 LOW THURSDAY EVENING AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF SAGINAW
BAY...WITH NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE BEST POSITION /IN A DYNAMICAL
PERSPECTIVE/ FOR SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE TREND FOR A SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION TO THE SYSTEM...WE/LL
START THE DAY THURSDAY SOMEWHAT IN A FORCING NO MAN/S LAND...WITH
PRETTY MILD TEMPERATURES.  A DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE LOCATED FROM WESTERN LAKE ERIE DOWN TO THE JERSEY COAST. AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STRONG QG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FORCE THE
NORTHWESTERN SURFACE LOW TO BECOME DOMINANT WITH TIME /I.E...A
PRETTY ATYPICAL SCENARIO!/. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AND DEEP...AND AS IT OVERSPREADS THE TROWAL
AIRSTREAM...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BLOSSOM PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BY
AFTERNOON.  WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY BE A
LITTLE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW /MID TO UPPER 30S AT THE SURFACE/
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW PRETTY MUCH IMMEDIATELY
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATING DEVELOPS... SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST
/GLADWIN...STANDISH...EAST TAWAS/ WHERE A RA/SN MIX /DUE TO THE
SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE CONTINUED COLUMN COOLING /GIVEN LOW PRESSURE LOCATION TO OUR
SOUTHEAST/ CHANGES EVERYONE OVER TOWARDS EVENING. LOOK FOR 1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LESS OVER EASTERN UPPER /DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLEVEL FLOW/ AND LESS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST /WITH THE
LATER CHANGEOVER/.

THURSDAY NIGHT...ROADS WILL LIKELY GET SLOPPY QUICK THURSDAY NIGHT
AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES.
DEFORMATION/FGEN BAND SITS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH STRONG
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE /AS H5 LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR SOUTH/ AND LEFT
EXIT DYNAMICS OF A 120KT JET STREAK /OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/ ASSISTING
LIFT.  PRIMARY QUESTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT
WON/T BE TERRIFIC AS PWATS/DEEP MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY BE DECREASING
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS THE EASTERN LOW PEELS OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND.
BANDING POTENTIAL IN THE TROWAL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH EPV REMAINING WELL ABOVE ZERO.  SNOW MICROPHYSICS
LOOK PRETTY GOOD...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LIFT IN THE DGZ /ALTHOUGH THE
DGZ WILL BE QUITE ELEVATED/.  SO...OVERALL...EXPECT A STEADY
SNOW...WITH A FEW BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
THE DYNAMICS.  OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES LOOK
REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS...MAXIMIZED ON AN ARC FROM ROGERS CITY TO
GAYLORD TO MANISTEE...WITH TOTALS A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY BE VERY NEAR AN APPROACHING DRYSLOT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...H5 CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE WILL LIFT
NORTH AND EAST WITH DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT FALLING APART
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING.  SO...EVENT WILL TRANSITION FROM
A SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN ONE...TO LAKE ENHANCED...AS T85 COOL TO THE
MINUS TEENS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OCCURRING /HELPED BY
LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS/ AND PLENTY OF REMNANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE NORTHERLY /OR PERHAPS NORTH
NORTHWEST....WHICH IS NOT GOING TO FAVOR MUCH OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WITH AREAS WEST OF US 131 LIKELY SEEING THE MOST LAKE
ASSISTANCE. THE DIRECTION WILL BACK SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
POSSIBLY WILL BRING ACTIVITY AS FAR EAST AS I-75...BUT EXPECT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED FURTHER WEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE QUICKLY WANES IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DELTA T/S STILL
PUSHING 20C.  WITH THIS SETUP...ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT /AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE HOSTILE/...AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
LOCAL SOUNDING ANALOG TOOL WHICH SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEST OF US-131...WITH AN INCH OR TWO
OVER WESTERN CHIP POSSIBLE AS WELL.  WITH THE MUCH CHILLIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE...LOWS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF THE
THICKER LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER...WITH TEENS LIKELY WHERE SNOW IS
ACCUMULATING.

AS FOR HEADLINES...STORM TOTAL SNOW FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY LOOKS TO FALL SOMEWHERE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE OVER THE
CURRENT WATCH AREA...WITH MY BEST GUESS FOR A MAXIMUM SOMEWHERE IN
THE KTVC-KALKASKA-MANTON AREA.  THIS IS A 48 HOUR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATION...AND MANY LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY NOT
EXCEED WARNING LEVEL AMOUNTS /6 INCHES IN 12 HOUR OR 8 IN 24 HOUR/
BY MUCH...IF AT ALL.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LAKE COMPONENT
/WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE THRESHOLD FOR A
WARNING/ WILL HOLD ONTO THE WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.  THIS WAS
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WILL GIVE TONIGHT/S SHIFT
ONE MORE GOOD LOOK AT THINGS.

SATURDAY...THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS...BUT WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...AND
WESTERN CHIP/MACK.  T92 IN THE MID MINUS TEENS SUGGEST MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT REACH 20F FOR HIGHS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS /A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST/

ARNOTT

EXTENDED FORECAST (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
RESULTING IN A PROGRESSIVELY MILDER AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT ON WEDNESDAY
SO ANY LES INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE FLOW LIKELY
BACKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MILDER WITH HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (FALLING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON?). COLDER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY NIGHT...TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT...20S
MONDAY NIGHT THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SULLIVAN

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 331 PM/

NO ISSUES ON THE NEARSHORES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN. OUTSIDE OF STRATUS
EXPECTED AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS FOR NEARSHORE WATERS NEARER TO SAGINAW
BAY. HERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SMD

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 646 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM EAST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT...WITH IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOWER STRATUS ARRIVES.
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST AS
WELL...BEGINNING AS RAIN AROUND APN...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEGINNING ROUGHLY 20-22Z.

LAWRENCE

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
339 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
122345-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
339 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE ONGOING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE FROM MANISTEE TO GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEE GALE WATCH AND
THE NEARSHORE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ARNOTT