Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS Gaylord, MI

926 
WHUS73 KAPX 220900
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

LMZ341-221700-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.120122T1000Z-120123T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0006.120122T2200Z-120123T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.A.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1200Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
400 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. A GALE WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LHZ345>349-221700-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.120122T1700Z-120123T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0006.120122T2200Z-120123T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.A.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
400 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY.
A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE GALE WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-221700-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.120122T1000Z-120123T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.A.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
400 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

477 
WHUS73 KAPX 221625
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

LHZ345>349-230030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.120122T1700Z-120123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1125 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. A
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-230030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1125 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. A
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

726 
WHUS73 KAPX 230359
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1059 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

LHZ348-349-231000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120123T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1059 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE GALE
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>347-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-231000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T1000Z/
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.A.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1059 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WATCH. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

943 
WHUS73 KAPX 230846
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

LHZ348-349-231700-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.120123T1200Z-120124T1000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
346 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EST TUESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EST TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>347-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-231700-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T1000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
346 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

118 
WHUS73 KAPX 231556
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1056 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

LHZ348-349-232200-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120124T1000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1056 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>347-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-232200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T1000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1056 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

517 
WHUS73 KAPX 232112
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

LHZ349-240400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120124T1000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2200Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
412 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-240400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120124T1000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0400Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
412 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST TUESDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-240400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
412 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-240400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
412 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

951 
WHUS73 KAPX 240416
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1116 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

LHZ345-346-349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-241230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1116 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-348-241230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1116 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST TUESDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

886 
WHUS73 KAPX 240851
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

LHZ345-346-349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-241700-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
351 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-348-241700-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
351 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

672 
WHUS73 KAPX 241600
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

LHZ345-346-349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-242200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-348-250000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

881 
WHUS73 KAPX 242103
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
403 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

LHZ345-346-LMZ323-341-242215-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
403 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ349-LMZ342-344>346-250400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0400Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
403 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-348-250400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
403 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

921 
WHUS73 KAPX 250313
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

LHZ349-LMZ342-344>346-250415-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0400Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1013 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ347-348-250900-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0900Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1013 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

677 
WHUS73 KAPX 250853
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 AM EST WED JAN 25 2012

LHZ347-348-251000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T0900Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
353 AM EST WED JAN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 350 PM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE THEN WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SUNDAY...AND MIGRATE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
TURNING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...REMINISCENT OF THE WARM PERIODS IN
DECEMBER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DRIZZLE
AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH SUNDAY EVENING...FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

HALBLAUB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 350 PM/...TONIGHT

POTENT UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EFFECTS OF SAID TROUGH BEING FELT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY JUST BEHIND DOWNSTREAM BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SE
STATES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIGHT
WINDS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH WOODS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOST OF THE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION TO BE SHUNTED OUT OVER THE
LAKES...WITH ONLY SOME FLURRIES IN AND AROUND WHITEFISH BAY AND
THE IMMEDIATE NW LOWER COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDED FROM A
COLD START...INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER HALF OF THE 20S.

THROUGH THE NIGHT...SFC RIDGE EXITING EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR OUR MAIN TEMPERATURES FALL FOR THE NIGHT.
IF NOT FOR RAPIDLY EASTWARD EXPANDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM RIDGING....READINGS MIGHT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
REACH QUITE COLD READINGS. THIS NOT THE CASE THOUGH. EXPANDING
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE FALL...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
LIKELY FOR MAINLY THE LOW LYING AREAS...MORE SO IN NE LOWER WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST FOR THE LONGEST TIME THIS EVENING. AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER MOISTURE...BUT CAN CERTAINLY ARGUE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SW WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH. THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO DRAG
OVERLAKE CONVECTION/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS AND FAR NW LOWER...BEFORE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
KILLS OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN THE SNOWS.
THIS TO OCCUR AROUND 06Z/1AM. THE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC INCREASE
ENOUGH TO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT...AND EVEN RISE IN
SOME COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. READINGS IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S AT SUNRISE.

SMD

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 350 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND

SUNDAY...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHARP AND NEGATIVELY
TILTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BOTH WORK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL PUSH MOST OF THE
MID/UPPER CLOUDS NORTH OF US BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL
SRLY WIND STRENGTHEN...WE DEVELOP A GULF OF MOISTURE TAP THAT
BEGINS TO FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS STILL WEST OF NRN MICHIGAN THOUGH. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF
CURRENT STRATUS DECK SEEN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALL BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM...AND WITHIN BEAUTIFUL
SHEAR. DATA LIKE THIS SUGGESTS A RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
DRIZZLE. NO SO SURE ABOUT EVERYWHERE THOUGH...CIGS THERE ARE
AROUND 2KFT AND THIS STRATUS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO COME IN
TOWARD EVENING WHILE WE ARE IN BEST HEATING. IF ANYONE GETS
DRIZZLE...IT WOULD BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN LOWER.
WILL ONLY GO CHANE AT BEST. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY AND EVENING...AT THE ONSET OF THE DRIZZLE...READINGS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO...FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE PROFILE LOOKS EVEN BETTER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
WEATHER DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY (SEE BELOW).

SMD

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD OF WEATHER...
ALBEIT NOT OVERLY WINTRY IN NATURE. FCST CONCERNS ARE MANY...
CENTERED ON PRECIP TYPE INTO SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH JUST
HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AND EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN SPOTS. 12Z GUIDANCE COMING IN RIGHT WHERE
00Z RUNS LEFT OFF...SHOWING CONTINUED STRONG AMPLIFICATION OF
ALREADY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING UPPER TROUGH COMING ASHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA TODAY AS IT GETS KICKED EAST AND UNDERMINED BY 120 KNOT
JET CRUISING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES. INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT
TO UPPER SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER DIVERGENCE VIA
DEVELOPING COUPLED JET STRUCTURE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTLY
RAPIDLY DEEPENING ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WITH SAID FEATURE STILL
EXPECTED TO BASICALLY TRACK DUE NORTH UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
(OR PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THERE).

EXPECTED TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL DRAG AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY (SEE ABOVE)...WITH
DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THERMAL AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY (PWATS
CLIMBING TOWARD 0.8-0.9 INCHES). PER FCST RAOBS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL BOTTOM UP SATURATION OCCUR
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS BEST THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY BENEATH 750MB...WITH INITIALLY SHALLOWER MOISTURE DEEPENING
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAINS. WHILE SFC TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
BE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS JUST
EAST OF DUE SOUTH (I.E. NO COLD AIR SOURCE REGION TO LOCK IN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS)...CURRENT VERY COLD PAVEMENT TEMPS AND
INCREASINGLY SNOW-FREE (FROM PLOWING) ROADS ARE A CONCERN. QUICK
PEEK AT RWIS DATA SHOWS SUB-GRADE PAVEMENT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 17F
TO 26F RANGE DOWN TO A DEPTH OF 12 INCHES...WHICH DEFINITELY LENDS
CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT WE MAY HAVE A SNEAKY FREEZING RAIN EVENT
UNFOLDING EVEN AS 2-METER TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 30S. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SITUATION BEFORE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO
AND WEB BRIEFINGS AS HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...STEADY WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH RISING TEMPS AND EXPANDING RAIN SHIELD...
PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER QG
UPWARD FORCING RAPIDLY APPROACHES. EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM WILL
PLACE A PLUME OF IMPRESSIVE WARMTH RIGHT OVERHEAD...WITH H85 TEMPS
WARMING TO +9C...ALL WHILE MID LEVEL COOLING BEGINS TO SPILL IN UP
NEAR 500MB WITH APPROACH OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT UPPER WAVE. THIS
SHOULD HELP ADVECTION IN A RATHER HEALTHY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST RAOBS INDICATING 700-400MB LAPSE RATES PUSHING
7.5C/KM. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG UPGLIDE AND UPPER FORCING...CAN
VERY WELL ENVISION SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A STEADY RAIN CROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION...WITH ANY FREEZING RAIN THREAT GONE BY 06Z. FOG
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE LESSENED BY STRONG SURFACE FLOW AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...IT WILL GET QUITE WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED TEMPS...WITH
READINGS PERHAPS PUSHING 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
12Z...IN LINE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE BUT VERY BELIEVABLE GEM 2-METER
TEMPS.

APPROACHING DRY SLOT SHOULD CUT OFF PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTN. SHARPLY COLDER AIRMASS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO WRAP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING ALONG WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE. SETUP SHOULD
PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST...
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW INTO MONDAY EVENING AS RESIDUAL MELTING
LAYERS ARE ERASED WITH STEADY COLD ADVECTION. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE W/NW FLOW SNOWBELTS COULD PICK UP A FRESH
INCH OR TWO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER INTO
TUESDAY AFTN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS A TIGHT GRADIENT HANGS
ACROSS THE REGION.

LATER PERIODS (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL LOOKING LIKE
A RETURN TO THE ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PACIFIC "FIREHOSE" PATTERN STILL IN
THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD. SAID
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE DRIVEN BY DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGHING OVER ALASKA...INTERACTING WITH BUILDING RIDGING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO PRODUCE A STRONG EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
ALREADY QUITE FAST NORTH PACIFIC JET. AS SUCH...FLOW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CONUS...FEATURING A
MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION...BUT EACH QUITE MOISTURE
STARVED GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO HELP TO BOTTLE
UP THE REAL COLD ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH INTO INTERIOR ALASKA
AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WITH BASICALLY A MODIFIED PACIFIC
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA...INFLUENCED ONLY AT BRIEF INTERVALS BY SOME
QUICK SHOTS OF COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING INDIVIDUAL
UPPER WAVES.

TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WAVES IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO WAVER EACH RUN...THOUGH STILL
DOES APPEAR WE MAY SEE THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE JUST ABOUT EACH
DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FCST. WITH THAT SAID...FCST
WILL FEATURE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SEVERAL PERIODS PER BLENDED
APPROACH...BUT JUST NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
WHATSOEVER. ONE VERY SMALL POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK
COULD COME LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SLOW EJECTION OF STRONGER SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY...WITH SOME SMALL HINTS IN VARIOUS ENSEMBLES THAT
INCREASING STREAM INTERACTION MAY ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO LIFT FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FCSTR...THIS
REMAINS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. OF HIGHER PROBABILITY IS THE
FACT THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 350 PM/

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN ON MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS. GALE
WATCHES/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAS BEEN HOISTED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FOR A BRIEF TIME INTO MIDDAY
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH ADDITIONAL
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA. A RETURN TO LIGHTER WINDS AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND LOW WAVES IS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS A RATHER
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES OVER THE REGION.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 149 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

REST OF THIS AFTN: HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU APN. MDT CONFIDENCE WITH SCT
2500 FT STRATOCU PREVAILING AT PLN TVC MBL. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BKN STRATOCU AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO'S AT PLN MBL. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE PROBABLY BECOME CALM AFTER 22Z.

TNGT: VFR 18-25K FT CIGS. CALM WINDS EVENTUALLY PICK UP FROM THE SE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. SE WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE AT PLN TVC MBL AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP ALL LOW CLOUDS OFFSHORE OVER LAKE MI. COLD INTERIOR
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN THE MANISTEE RVR TO
AFFECT MBL. LLWS DEVELOPS ALL TERMINALS.

SUN THRU 18Z: PREVAILING VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CIGS 13-18K FT. FCST
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS OF RH INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENUF FOR MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP
AT APN. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT STRATOCU
REMAINS SCT. LLWS TERMINATES AS SFC WINDS BECOME COUPLED AND GUSTY
UP TO 22 KTS FROM THE SE.

HALBLAUB

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ341.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
221200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
345 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. VERY COLD ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR ICY
TRAVEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AND STRAITS NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.

LAWRENCE