Small Craft Advisory 110, NWS Gaylord, MI

775 
WHUS73 KAPX 252036
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
436 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

LMZ341-344>346-260445-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-121026T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.121026T0300Z-121026T2100Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
436 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-260445-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-121026T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.121026T0300Z-121026T2100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
436 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM
EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-260445-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-121026T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0110.121026T0300Z-121026T2100Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
436 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM
EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ361-260445-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT 
TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE-
436 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ349-260445-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T1100Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
436 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346-LSZ322-260445-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
436 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-347-348-260445-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
436 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

714 
WHUS73 KAPX 260230
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-261030-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-121026T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.121026T0230Z-121026T2100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-261030-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-121026T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0110.121026T0230Z-121026T2100Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ349-261030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T1100Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>348-361-LSZ322-261030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT 
TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

622 
WHUS73 KAPX 260734
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

LHZ349-261545-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-261545-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-261545-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0110.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>348-361-LSZ322-261545-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT 
TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

191 
WHUS73 KAPX 261958
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

LHZ345>349-361-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ322-262100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-121026T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT 
TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LSZ321-270400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0110.000000T0000Z-121027T0900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

634 
WHUS73 KAPX 270733
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

LSZ321-270845-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0110.000000T0000Z-121027T0900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
333 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
959 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VERY WARM AND DOWNRIGHT WINDY LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO ONTARIO...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...GIVING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...AND STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS WE MOVE TOWARD MIDWEEK...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE SANDY...WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD TUESDAY OR HALLOWEEN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM
DAY. CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

QUICK UPDATE TO END REMOVE MUCH OF THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT/MOISTURE SURGE HAS ADVANCED INTO
ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...ELONGATED AXIS OF CONVECTION IS WELL UPSTREAM
AND PER RADAR TRENDS...LOOKS TO AVOID ALL BUT PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO RAISED TEMP
TRENDS ALL AREAS BASED ON OBS...WITH READINGS DOWNRIGHT BALMY
ALREADY...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
SOUTH OF THE TRUE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY BISECTS
NORTHERN LOWER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SURGE/MIX NORTHWARD AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY...ENDING THE THREAT FOR LINGERING DENSE FOG TO ITS
NORTH...AND PROVIDING QUITE WINDY BUT VERY WARM WEATHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ENJOY!!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY TODAY...RESULTING IN BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID COLD FRONT REMAINING WEST OF FORECAST
AREA TODAY...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS SUNSHINE...
COUPLED WITH MECHANICAL MIXING...AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR +14C...WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO PEAK WELL INTO THE 70S MANY AREAS. LATE
OCTOBER RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AT APN/TVC/PLN/GLR/ANJ/HTL (SEE
BELOW).

TONIGHT...NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL
TRAVERSE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 00-07Z...AS PARENT SURFACE
LOW PUSHES QUICKLY NE THROUGH ONTARIO. MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT. AS BEST RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NE WITH SURFACE LOW...CONCERNED THERE MAY BE
A SLOW DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES
EAST. STILL...FORECAST WILL REFLECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...COINCIDENT WITH AXIS OF +10-12C DEW POINT AIR
ALONG FRONT. HAVE ALSO SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY MAINTAINED THUNDER
REFERENCE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A SKINNY ELEVATED CAPE
(AT BEST) BUT WITH RESPECTABLE FRONTAL FORCING AND STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DAY ONE OUTLOOK SUPPORTING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SEEMS
PRUDENT TO LEAVE IT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

ENJOY THAT WARMTH WHILE IT'S HERE TODAY...BECAUSE IT'S ALL DOWNHILL
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MANY...BUT MAINLY CENTERED ON PRECIP
CHANCES AND MORE NOTABLY...WHETHER OR NOT THE EAST COAST CYCLONE
WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT OUR AREA. THE STEP DOWN TO MUCH COLDER
WEATHER IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY JUST TO OUR WEST...AS BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...COURTESY OF STRONG UPPER LOW CRUISING
EAST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS ABOUT TO SEAL
THE DEAL FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AS IT PINWHEELS BENEATH BROAD UPPER RIDGING
OVER ALASKA TO CARVE OUT A STRONG REX BLOCK SCENARIO...FAVORING
DOWNSTREAM BROAD TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FROM FRIDAY RIGHT
ON THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. ALL THE WHILE...STRENGTHENING
NORTH PACIFIC REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL ALSO INTERRUPT THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF HURRICANE "SANDY"...AND ALLOW THE POTENTIAL (INCREASING
RAPIDLY WITH TIME) FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADENING UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALBEIT MUCH COLDER. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESIDE EAST
OF THE AREA AS OF 12Z...ALLOWING BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES RIGHT ON THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST FEW DAYS...STILL A BIT WORRIED THAT
THE WHOLE PATTERN MAY SLOW UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO SANDY RIDING
NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN DECENT CORE OF JET DYNAMICS
DEVELOPING JUST OFF TO THE EAST BETWEEN OUR UPPER TROUGH AND THE
HURRICANE...STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT A SNEAKY RAIN SHIELD MAY
CLIP EASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PER 00Z GUIDANCE
TRENDS...THIS IDEA STILL HAS SOME MERIT...BUT IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN MAY RESIDE JUST EAST OF OUR CWA.

OTHERWISE...LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS HONESTLY NOT THAT
GREAT...DESPITE CORE OF QUITE CHILLY H8 TEMPS CRUISING INTO OUR
REGION. H8 TEMPS DIVING TO AS COLD AS -8C WILL CERTAINLY ACTIVATE
THE LAKES IN TERMS OF SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY...WITH PWATS DOWN AS LOW AS 0.15 INCHES AND MEAN 900-700MB
RH VALUES ONLY ABOUT 30 PERCENT. NO DOUBT THE LAKE INSTABILITY WILL
GIVE US SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...EVEN IN THE FACE OF SUCH
DRYNESS...BUT INVERTED-V AND VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES ARGUE
FOR REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...MEAN LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME...FAVORING ONLY A
SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA DOWNWIND OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...AND UP
OVER WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHOULD END UP IN THE 40S (MAYBE A FEW LOW 50S SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW)...WITH LOWS INTO THE 20S AND
30S - ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AFTER THAT...ALL EYES WILL TURN TO JUST WHAT "SANDY" DECIDES TO
DO...AND WHAT IF ANY IMPACT HER REMNANTS WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA. VERY
INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SNIFFED OUT THIS HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS POSSIBILITY AS EARLY AS 3 DAYS AGO...WITH TRENDS THE
PAST FEW DAYS SUPPORT THE INITIAL GGEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH
POTENT VORT DIVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ESSENTIALLY
GRABBING "SANDY" AND WRAPPING IT WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NOT AT ALL SURPRISING TO SEE SOME REMAINING MODEL SPREAD
ABOUT JUST WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL COME ASHORE...BUT THE WRITING
APPEARS TO BE ON THE WALL THAT A MAJOR STORM WILL IMPACT PARTS OF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR AREA
IS CONTINUED RATHER QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING
GETS SQUEEZED OVERHEAD. LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW MUCH COLD
AIR WILL BE PULLED DOWN AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DEEPENS OFF
TO OUR EAST...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE COLDER IS BETTER GIVEN THE SETUP
AND PLENTY OF CHILLY AIR UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THAT MAY WELL
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON
MONDAY...AND MOST CERTAINLY ANOTHER CHILLY DAY.

THEREAFTER...REMAINING UNCERTAINTY MANDATES AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE
MENTION FOR PRECIP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME HINTS THAT
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL TROWAL
FEATURE MAY ROTATE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LAKES. AS MENTIONED BY
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
NOT ZERO FOR EITHER TUESDAY OR HALLOWEEN WEDNESDAY...AND THIS IS
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. CAN ENVISION A SCENARIO
WHERE A SYNOPTIC SNOW SHIELD WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST...ONLY TO HAVE PRECIP CHANGE TO RAIN AS PRONOUNCED TROWAL
FEATURE WRAPS IN WARMTH ALOFT WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT
THREAT WILL RAMP UP IN NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES. TEMPS TO SOLIDLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT INLAND SPOTS
ARE STUCK IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

A WARM AND WINDY DAY OUT THERE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. VERY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...
MAINLY AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
STRONGER WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (MBL/TVC/PLN). A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GIVING A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS (MAYBE A LITTLE THUNDER TOO)...BUT ALSO
QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS MORE WESTERLY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DIMINISH
TO MVFR...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

UPDATE: BASED ON OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS...HAVE POSTED GALE
WARNINGS FOR AREAS FROM GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT DOWN TO MANISTEE.
DESPITE MODEST OVER-LAKE STABILITY AS PLUME OF +17C LOW LEVEL AIR
RIDES OVERHEAD...VERY STRONG JET UP TO 50 KNOTS AT 950MB COMBINED
WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME 35-40 KNOT GUSTS GOING...ESPECIALLY
INTO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH AREAS
FARTHER NORTH WHERE WE MAY SEE SOME 35 KNOT GUSTS FOR A TIME...BUT
THOSE AREAS ARE MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

MARINERS WILL EXPERIENCE LESS THAN IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W/NW TONIGHT AS FRONT
PASSES. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN CAA REGIME
AND WARM WATER TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE BELOW. CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SUSPECT A
FEW OF THESE MAY GO DOWN LATER TODAY...MAINLY FOR TVC/APN...AND
PERHAPS ANJ LATE AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY OVERCOMES
BACKED FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. WITH THAT SAID...JUST ABOUT ANY SPOT
WILL HAVE A CHANCE BASED ON WIDESPREAD OBS DOWNSTATE (IN OUR
INCOMING AIRMASS) WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

LOCATION           RECORD/YEAR
--------           -----------
ALPENA              77 (1989)
GAYLORD             76 (1963)
PELLSTON            76 (1989)
HOUGHTON LAKE       78 (1963)
TRAVERSE CITY       77 (1989)
SAULT STE MARIE     67 (1973)

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
CLIMATE...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMITH/LAWRENCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
505 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
261200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
505 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DOES EXIST WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

IN ADDITION...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
EVENING OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
WATERS...FROM MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NEARSHORE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WIND GUSTS (IF KNOWN)
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
(ALL LOWERCASE)

SMITH/LAWRENCE