Small Craft Advisory 104, NWS Gaylord, MI

603 
WHUS73 KAPX 161559
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

LMZ344>346-170000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T0600Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1159 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-170000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121017T0600Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1159 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

339 
WHUS73 KAPX 162002
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

LMZ341-342-170400-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T0600Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
402 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-170400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121017T1900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
402 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ344>346-170400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T0600Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
402 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

184 
WHUS73 KAPX 170243
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1043 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

LHZ346>349-171045-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.121017T1200Z-121018T0000Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1043 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-342-344>346-171045-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T0600Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1043 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-171045-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121017T1900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1043 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

578 
WHUS73 KAPX 170817
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
417 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

LHZ346>349-171630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.121017T1200Z-121018T0000Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
417 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-342-344>346-171630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T0600Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
417 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-171630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121017T1900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
417 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

520 
WHUS73 KAPX 172107
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
507 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

LSZ321-180515-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0105.121017T2107Z-121018T2100Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
507 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-180515-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
507 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ322-180515-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
507 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346>349-180515-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
507 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-342-344>346-180515-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
507 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

285 
WHUS73 KAPX 180226
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1026 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

LHZ345>349-181030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1026 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-342-344>346-181030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1026 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ322-181030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1026 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-181030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1026 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

373 
WHUS73 KAPX 180816
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

LHZ345>349-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
416 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-342-344>346-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
416 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ322-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
416 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-121018T2100Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
416 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

865 
WHUS73 KAPX 182004
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

LHZ345>349-190415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
404 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-342-344>346-190415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
404 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ322-190415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
404 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-190415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
404 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

802 
WHUS73 KAPX 190248
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1048 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

LHZ345>349-190900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1048 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-342-344>346-190900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1048 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ322-190900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1048 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-190900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1048 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

513 
WHUS73 KAPX 190845
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
445 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

LSZ321-190945-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
445 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ345-349-LMZ342-344>346-LSZ322-190945-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T0900Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
445 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LMZ341-191500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T1500Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
445 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346>348-191645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121020T0000Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
445 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

418 
WHUS73 KAPX 191519
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1119 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

LMZ341-191630-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121019T1500Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
1119 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

LHZ346>348-192330-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121020T0000Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1119 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

494 
WHUS73 KAPX 192024
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
424 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

LHZ346>348-200000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-121020T0000Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
424 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM A WARM FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
IN EASTERN UPPER AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM...JUST ENTERING WESTERN CANADA...WILL DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

CONTINUING THE ACTIVE WX THEME OF LATE...THE SHORT TERM FCST GIVES
US YET ANOTHER INTERESTING LITTLE CHALLENGE...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING PRECIP COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDER IN SPOTS LATER TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...OUR WX IS ABOUT
AS QUIET AS IT GETS DURING THE MID FALL...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
FOLDING DIRECTLY THROUGH THE REGION...WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR HELPING ERODE EARLIER QUITE PERSISTENT STRATUS. CLEARING
SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF QUITE MOIST GROUND AND LIGHT FLOW REGIME
HAS PRODUCED SOME AREAS OF FOG...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
EARLIER FEARED...LIKELY A CONSEQUENCE OF SLOWER CLOUD EXIT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...ALL WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO
THICKENING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THIS LATTER WX COMPONENT COMES
COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ASCENT ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF
A LEAD UPPER WAVE BEING KICKED EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. ALL THE
WHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF A VERY STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET (160+
KNOTS - THE OLD PACIFIC "FIREHOSE" PATTERN) IS NOTED NOSING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ABOUT TO HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TONIGHT...A FEATURE WHICH WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR AREA INTO MID/LATE WEEK.

IN THE MEANTIME...OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE INCOMING LEAD WAVE
TODAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SLUG OF DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
GOING INTO PRODUCING THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. AMBIENT
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY DOWN BELOW 700MB...BUT PERSISTENT UPGLIDE WILL
WORK AT THAT WITH TIME...HELPED ALONG BY FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS WORKS THROUGH THE REGION
ROUGHLY 15-00Z. MOISTURE ALOFT IS NOTHING IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH OF
A TAP FROM MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LIKELY GO
INTO THE PRODUCTION OF AN EXPANDING LIGHTER RAIN AXIS THROUGH THE
MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY WILL COME
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE
FIGHTING PERSISTENT DRYNESS DOWN LOW. PER GUIDANCE TRENDS...FEEL
RATHER COMFORTABLE BUMPING POPS TO CATEGORICAL ROUGHLY NORTH OF
M-68...WITH PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT DOWN NEAR THE M-55 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS TRICKY AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE RATHER PREVALENT MOST SPOTS...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME BREAKS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL RH PLUME PULLS EAST. GIVEN STEADILY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H8 TEMPS END UP AROUND 1C
FAR NORTH TO 8C SOUTHWEST BY 21Z) AND EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF MORE
PERSISTENT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE A GOOD RANGE IN AFTN HIGHS...FROM THE
UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO MAYBE PUSHING 60 SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE LOOKS TO WANE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE MID LEVEL WAVE DAMPENS OUT BASICALLY OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO RAMP UP THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS AN AXIS OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE
CRANKING UP NEAR 40 KNOTS SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT SOME BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PARKED OVER WESTERN TEXAS TOWARD MUCH OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COMBINED WITH A RENEWED AXIS OF WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL AS MARKED DECREASE
IN MID LEVEL STABILITY AS PRONOUNCED EML WORKS OVERHEAD...CAN EASILY
MAKE A CASE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALPENA TO CADILLAC. THUNDER A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE VALUES PUSHING 400 J/KG...AND HAS
BEEN ADDED ACCORDINGLY. SHOULD BE A MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND AREA
PARKED IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S WILL WORK FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE A BIT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB DIFLUENCE AXIS IN E UPPER IN THE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING INTO MICHIGAN
WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH BEGINS TO BRING MOISTURE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE ECMWF
LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GFS OF THE MORNING AND THE GFS HAS BROUGHT RAIN
INTO THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH THE WARMTH AT THE
SFC AND THE SHARPNESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUT IN THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE STATE, AND
THE 500 MB LOW IS WEST OF US IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, AND COLD ADVECTION AT
THE SFC AND 850 MB OCCURRING, WILL EXPECT THAT ONLY RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
500 MB LOW, AND THE SFC LOW FOR THAT MATTER. WITH THE STACKED LOW
SPINNING IN THE MIDWEST, AND THE FRONT THROUGH, THERE WILL BE A
LESSENING IN THE RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME, ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY
SLOT MOVING IN FROM S LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, THE 500
MB LOW POSITIONS ON THE MODELS BEGINS TO SEPARATE AS THE GFS BEGINS
TO OPEN THE WAVE A BIT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN, AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE LOW CUTOFF NEAR ORD. SO WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS THE LOW FILLS. BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH
THE WAY SOME LOWS FILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE LOWS THEMSELVES LOSE THEIR DYNAMIC PUNCH AND LITTLE RAIN
FALLS UNDER IT, ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. WITH
THE ECMWF STILL BEING A LITTLE MORE CUT OFF AND SEEMINGLY NOT
FILLING AS FAST, WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW IF THAT
SCENARIO IS REALIZED.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE MEETING IN
THE MIDDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE, AND
ECMWF IS A JUST LITTLE FASTER. THE ECMWF WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW, NOW IN SW LOWER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT THEN LIFTS IT NE INTO
NE LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE 500 MB LOW
LIFTING THROUGH MICHIGAN BY 00Z (ACTUALLY IN N LAKE HURON) AND THEN
INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. SO WITH THE MODELS NARROWING THEIR
DIFFERENCES, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GFS HAVING MOVED THE LOW OUT, WE ARE DEPENDENT
ON LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WITH THE 500 MB LOW STILL OVER SE LOWER BY 12Z
RAIN IS STILL A CHANCE, SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OVER THE REGION.
SATURDAY, THE 500 MB LOW IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER PER THE
ECMWF. THE GFS HAS SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVER THE REGION, WHICH
IS REINFORCED A BIT BY A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN NE LOWER. THINGS DRY OUT
OVERNIGHT AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE RIDGE, BUT IT IS
BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. SO
DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY, RIDGE BUILDS ON BOTH MODELS, ALTHOUGH NOT AS
AMPLIFIED AS ON THE ECMWF TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE
GFS HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING WHICH WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY, DUE TO
SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM IN
OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF BARELY HAS IT IN E UPPER BY 12Z. SO WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS. MONDAY, ECMWF HAS THE SFC LOW STILL
DEVELOPING SW OF THE REGION WITH THE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH BRING
RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAS THE LOW WELL INTO QUEBEC WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RAIN. SO CHANCE POPS FOR THE RAIN.
THE FRONT HANGS UP OVER US IN EITHER CASE SO CHANCE OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS WORKING THROUGH THE REGION. STUBBORN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY HELP LOWER STRATUS TO
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED AROUND APN...BUT SHOULD SEE THAT
CLEAR TOO BY 08Z OR SO. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS/MOIST
GROUND...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME GROUND FOG...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF IFR VISBYS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR MBL/PLN AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE TVC. AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL SEND THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED...MOST LIKELY FOR THE PLN TERMINAL. WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTN WILL GET A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AROUND MBL DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY FOR ALL SPOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE FOR A VERY BRIEF
MOMENT THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP ON ALL THE
LAKES OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT...WITH THESE
EXPANDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY TO INCLUDE WHITEFISH BAY
AND THE ST MARYS RIVER WHERE BACKED SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CHANNEL.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THOUGH THE REGION...WITH A LOW END
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME GALES OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A RETURN TO MORE QUIET CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSL
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
420 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
161200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
420 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
(ALL LOWERCASE)

JPB