Alert archive / Michigan / Lake Effect Snow Advisories in 2012
Lake Effect Snow Advisory 2, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this lake effect snow advisory at Jan 28, 2012, 3:38 AM EST for 7 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Jan 28, 2012, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 27 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 28, 2012, 3:38 AM EST (08:38 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 28, 2012, 4:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 29, 2012, 6:59 PM EST
- In force
- 27 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
Counties Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2045 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -12 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 54 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
678 WWUS43 KAPX 280838 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 338 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY... .A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY INCLUDE AREAS TO THE WEST OF M-123 SUCH AS PARADISE AND WHITEFISH POINT. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BRING THE SNOW BANDS TOWARD THE SAULT STE. MARIE AREA. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MIZ008-281645- /O.UPG.KAPX.LE.A.0002.120128T2100Z-120129T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.120128T2100Z-120130T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 338 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * 6 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF M-123 AND NORTH OF M-28 TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FROM PARADISE NORTHWARD TO WHITEFISH POINT. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$
8 follow-up statements
724 WWUS43 KAPX 281631 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1131 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY... .A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY INCLUDE AREAS TO THE WEST OF M-123 SUCH AS PARADISE AND WHITEFISH POINT. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BRING THE SNOW BANDS TOWARD THE SAULT STE. MARIE AREA. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MIZ008-290045- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.120128T2100Z-120130T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1131 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * 6 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF M-123 AND NORTH OF M-28 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FROM PARADISE NORTHWARD TO WHITEFISH POINT. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$
272 WWUS43 KAPX 282102 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 402 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY... .SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS MOVING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-28 CORRIDOR...WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIZ008-290515- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 402 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ON SUNDAY. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FROM PARADISE NORTHWARD TO WHITEFISH POINT. SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO BRIMLEY AND SAULT STE. MARIE LATER THIS EVENING. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ JPB
012 WWUS43 KAPX 290053 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 753 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... .PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-28 CORRIDOR...WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE FOUND BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...HEAVIEST SNOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-68 AND M-32...WHERE TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT. MIZ016-017-019-021-022-291000- /O.EXB.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120129T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX... MANCELONA...GAYLORD 753 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY AROUND BOYNE CITY...WOLVERINE AND VANDERBILT. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ MIZ008-291000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 753 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ON SUNDAY. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FROM PARADISE NORTHWARD TO WHITEFISH POINT. SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO BRIMLEY AND SAULT STE. MARIE LATER THIS EVENING. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ ADAM
797 WWUS43 KAPX 290242 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 942 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... .PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE FOUND BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...HEAVIEST SNOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...WHERE TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT. MIZ019-021-022-291000- /O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120129T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0002.120129T0242Z-120129T1000Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD 942 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...PRODUCING SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ008-291000- /O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0002.120129T0242Z-120130T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 942 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ON SUNDAY. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT AREAS FROM BRIMLEY TO SAULT STE. MARIE. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ023-024-291000- /O.EXA.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120129T1000Z/ MONTMORENCY-ALPENA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA 942 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE M-32 CORRIDOR. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...PRODUCING SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ MIZ016-017-291000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120129T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 942 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ ADAM
810 WWUS43 KAPX 290845 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 345 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... .PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY COULD REACH 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. MIZ019-021-022-291645- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120129T1000Z/ /O.EXB.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD 345 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ MIZ023-024-290945- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120129T1000Z/ MONTMORENCY-ALPENA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA 345 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. $$ MIZ008-291645- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 345 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT AREAS FROM BRIMLEY TO SAULT STE. MARIE. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ018-291645- /O.EXB.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ PRESQUE ISLE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROGERS CITY 345 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ MIZ016-017-291645- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 345 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. * GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$
134 WWUS43 KAPX 291618 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1118 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... .WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SNOW SHOWERS IN OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. MIZ018-291730- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ PRESQUE ISLE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROGERS CITY 1118 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. $$ MIZ008-300000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1118 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ016-017-300000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 1118 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-68. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ MIZ019-021-022-300000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD 1118 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ JPB
925 WWUS43 KAPX 292106 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 406 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... .WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SNOW SHOWERS IN OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. MIZ016-017-292215- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 406 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. $$ MIZ008-300000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 406 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ019-021-022-300000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD 406 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$
548 WWUS43 KAPX 292359 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 659 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY... .WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY MONDAY MORNING. MIZ008-301000- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.120129T2359Z-120130T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 659 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY TONIGHT...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APX/?N=WEATHER_PREPAREDNESS (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO KEEP YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SAFE. && $$ MIZ019-021-022-300100- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120130T0000Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD 659 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. $$ ADAM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow advisory went out at Jan 28, 3:30 AM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 28, 3:30 AM EST, 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FRESHEN UP THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING BURST
OF SNOW. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...WILL TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN TURN MILDER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL MINOR
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 330 AM/...TODAY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN TO NEAR GRB
INTO S CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
500 MB TROUGH IS FURTHER UPSTREAM PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY A RATHER STRONG AREA OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I285)...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING 900-700 MB OMEGA AND 500-700 MB
DIV-Q. APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO NO LAKE CONTRIBUTION AT THE MOMENT
DUE TO INSUFFICIENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY (TOO WARM) DESPITE A LONG
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH UNDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA ATTM...BUT ALL
REPORTED PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND AS SNOW THANKS TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN QUICKLY ERODING ANY ABOVE-FREEZING AIR
ALOFT.
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND SNOW BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST. COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FRONT
LIKELY CLEARING OUR CWA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. ANTICIPATE QPF OF
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH A GENERALLY WET SNOW AS BULLSEYE
OF OMEGA IS AT THE LOWEST PART OF THE DGZ AND BELOW. SYNOPTICALLY-
DRIVEN SNOWFALL THRU MIDDAY SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
NARROW BAND OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR QUICKLY WRAPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH SHIFTING WINDS...DRYING AT MID LEVELS
AND A SLIGHT DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR...LAKE
EFFECT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NRN SECTIONS OF CHIPPEWA
COUNTY WHERE DEEP MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SURGE BACK INTO
THAT REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE OPTED TO TRANSITION THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE ON THIS IN THE DISCUSSION FOR
TONIGHT (BELOW). TEMPS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S THROUGHOUT TODAY.
RUNYAN
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 400 PM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE/DEEP INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH VIRTUALLY NO INVERSION TO SPEAK OF. THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AS LOBES
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT JUST GRAZE THE AREA TO THE NORTH...AND EVEN
TO OUR SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE RIDES THRU SRN LWR MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT WHICH PROVIDES NO LAKE SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING FOR NRN LWR
MICHIGAN. CERTAINLY ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE THRU MUCH OF THAT TIME PERIOD. STRAIGHT WEST FLOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL TARGET LOCATIONS NORTH OF M-28 FOR
HIGHEST POPS AND HEAVIEST SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW "ARM" OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY AROUND WHITEFISH POINT AND PARADISE. THIS SMALL AREA
OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO 8 OR 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY. NEW SNOW AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS ONLY RECEIVING AN INCH OR
TWO WITHIN THAT 24 HR PERIOD. IN COORDINATION WITH MQT...AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND CAREFULLY WORD ALL PRODUCTS TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW "ARM" OF THE COUNTY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE NW ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD REDIRECT
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...AND WILL UPGRADE
HEADLINES IF NECESSARY. WILL ALSO ADD MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW TO NRN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. FOR THE SNOWBELT REGIONS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN...EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ON
SUNDAY AS SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF
LAKE SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING UNTIL MAYBE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
CONTINUE CAA...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 20S.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
BACKS TO THE SW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BOUT OF SYNOPTICALLY-
DRIVEN SNOW WILL BE FAST ON ITS HEELS...DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SW
COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION...PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF LWR
MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
A CHANCE OF SNOW ON MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT REACHES OUR FAR SRN
COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.
RUNYAN
REST OF THE FCST BEGINNING 12Z/TUE: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE COMPLETE...WITH A COUPLE DAYS OF COMPLEX ZONAL FLOW.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW TUE-SAT. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE WITH 1 DAY
POTENTIAL OF MUCH ABOVE /+10F/ NORMAL...POSSIBLY OCCURRING WED.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING THRU NRN MI TUE. THE
00Z GFS HAS BEEN DISCARDED FOR ITS FRONTAL POSITION THRU THE CENTRAL
GTLKS AT 00Z/WED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DISCRETE LOW THAT
MOVES ESE ALONG THE POLAR FRONT MON NGT-TUE TO BE S OF NOVA SCOTIA
BY 00Z/WED. THIS IS OUTSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OF
GEM/ECMWF/UKMET. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE MEAN BY 12Z/WED...FURTHER DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN ITS
SOLUTION.
SO EXPECT NRN MI TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUE. A 1000 MB LOW
PROBABLY TRACKS N OF THE GTLKS TUE NGT...BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS
...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TUE: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS ARE 33-39F. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN IS POSSIBLE...IN THE FORM OF -RA OVER NRN LOWER AND A WINTRY
MIX OVER THE ERN U.P. PCPN AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN .05".
WED: "COOL" SECTOR IN W WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH
VALLEY...BUT TEMPS REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL /32-39F/. IN FACT...LACK
OF LAKE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THESE TEMPS COULD BUST TOO COOL BY
5-8F. 40-48 MAY BE A BETTER BET...BUT FOR NOW CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
AS IT'S DOUBTFUL WE SEE FULL SUN/MIXING.
THU-FRI: AMPLIFICATION BEGINS THU AS A DEEP STORM MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF AK...BUILDING THE WRN USA RIDGE AND AMPLIFYING THE ERN USA
TROF. THIS WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE POLAR FRONT THAT WILL
BE WELL S OF THE GTLKS. HOWEVER...IT ALSO PROBABLY SENDS A WEAKER
LOW SE TOWARD THE GTLKS FROM CANADA. HIGHLY UNCERTAIN HOW THIS PLAYS
OUT AND MODELS ARE ACROSS THE BOARD IN TIMING/LOCATION/STRENGTH.
PATTERN: AM BEGINNING TO SEE SIGNALS FOR +NAO/+PNA PATTERN
DEVELOPING. THIS SUPPORTS WHAT WE'VE SEEN VIA ENSEMBLE 500 MB HGT
ANOMALIES...WITH WRN NA RIDGE/ERN NA TROF. WHILE THIS COULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A TRANSIENT DUMP OF ARCTIC AIR AFTER SUN FEB
5TH...OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THEN
SINCE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN THE ERN HEMISPHERE. +HGT ANOMALIES
OVER WRN NA BRIDGING INTO THE N ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BITTER COLD
OUT OF CANADA. THE CANADIAN 10 DAY MEAN TEMP ANOMALY IS +1 ACROSS
ALL OF CANADA. THE WRN NA USA RIDGE ALSO WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ANY MAJOR WINTER STORMS HERE.
HALBLAUB
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 400 PM/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. STRENGTHENING WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ENHANCED BY INCREASING OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT
SCA'S FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON TODAY THRU
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1128 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
QUICK MOVING LOW LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT NOW WORKING THROUGH
WISCONSIN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING A QUICK TRANSITION
TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS (OVERALL) LIGHT SNOWFALL OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR
ONCE AGAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
ANTICIPATE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT MBL/TVC/PLN
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
FOR SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST BUT MAY EASE A BIT AS DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
ADAM
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY
FOR MIZ008.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 27, 4:15 PM EST, 11 hours 23 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 415 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 281315- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 415 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER BY DAYBREAK. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOWFALL. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY. SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR TO OUR NWS GAYLORD FACEBOOK PAGE. AJS
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Advisories in Michigan, 2012Every lake effect snow advisory in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.