Lake Effect Snow Advisory 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1146 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 352 PM/

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER...REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

NS

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 715 PM/...TONIGHT

SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL IS COMING TO AN END AT THE MOMENT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO BANDED LAKE EFFECT. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS MUCH
COLDER AIR LEADS TO EXCELLENT OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (LAKE-850 MB
DELTA TS OF AROUND 20). MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH MEAN 850-700
MB RH OF AROUND 70 PERCENT THROUGH 06Z...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING
TO ABOUT 45 PERCENT BY 12Z. MEAN SURFACE TO 850 MB FLOW IS ON THE
EDGE OF NNW AND NW THIS EVENING BUT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SUBTLE
BACKING INTO THE NW OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO NW FLOW FAVORED COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE ONGOING NNW COUNTIES. END TIME WILL BE 5 AM SO THE MIDSHIFT
HAS PLENTY OF TIME TO EVALUATE ONGOING ACTIVITY FOR POSSIBLE
CANCELLATIONS/EXTENT IONS. EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE ADVISORY AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SULLIVAN

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 352 PM/...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND -15C BY
18Z AND THE MOISTURE STILL JUST A LITTLE SHORT OF 50% IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MINOR TO LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
AS THE LAKE SNOW PUSHES THROUGH THERE. BY THE END OF THE DAY, AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION, THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT
AS MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT, HELPS TO KICK UP THE POTENTIAL.

JSL

QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE AREA.  SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
APPROACHES.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE
NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WITH DELTA T/S IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND INCREASING H8-H7 MOISTURE.  WILL UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS...WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IN SOME OF THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS...WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR BEING HOW QUICKLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WESTERLY BY 12Z.  AS WINDS SHIFT...LAKE EFFECT WILL
BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND GRADUALLY FOCUS FURTHER INLAND TOWARD
GAYLORD-KALKASKA.  OVER EASTERN UPPER...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER
WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WILL SHIFT TO A FOCUS WEST OF M-123 LATE AS
WINDS COME AROUND.

SNOW CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE AREA
AND H8 TEMPS HEADED TOWARD -20C.  WINDS FINALLY SETTLE INTO A
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO INVERSION EVIDENT...DEEP MOISTURE AND THE BEST OMEGA CENTERED
BETWEEN -15 TO -18C /GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH/.  WE WILL ALSO HAVE
15-25KTS OF WIND...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
COULD EASILY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR AREAS FROM I-75 WESTWARD
FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  DIMINISHING MOISTURE WILL
WEAKEN THE LAKE RESPONSE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY TO KEEP SNOWSHOWERS GOING IN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.   OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT...SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE LIKELY WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
LIKELY.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SKIRT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES LIKELY SUPPRESSES THE
STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH.  CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CONUS...AND WHILE THE PERIOD WILL START COLD...WELL ADVERTISED
WARMING TREND STILL IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
IN THE HANDLING OF NUMEROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND HOW MUCH
THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE EXPANDING WARM UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY.  EITHER WAY...WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
FREEZING BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAY EVEN HAVE A RAIN EVENT
TO DEAL WITH IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME AS SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP AND
PASSES THRU THE WESTERN LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 352 PM/

WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO SMALL CRAFT OVER MOST OF THE REGION
WITH GALE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS WILL SHIFT TO THE LAKE HURON
SHORE LINE OVERNIGHT. SO WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO STAND WITH
THE EXPIRATION TIMES. WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT AT THE LEAST, AND PROBABLY GALES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1139 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY BACK INTO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOW END VFR CIGS MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
TIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM TIME TO
TIME...AND AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR APN.

AJS

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019>022-
     025>028-031>033.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1122 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     BLIZZARD         4 SW BRETHREN           44.26N 86.07W
01/17/2012                   MANISTEE           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HR TOTAL THRU 11 PM. SNOWDEPTH 6 IN

&&

MRUNYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     SNOW             4 SW BRETHREN           44.26N 86.07W
01/17/2012  M4.0 INCH        MANISTEE           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HR TOTAL THRU 11 PM. SNOWDEPTH 6 IN

&&

MRUNYAN