Gale Watch 23, NWS Gaylord, MI

426 
WHUS73 KAPX 220308
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-221115-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1008 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY. A
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LHZ347-LSZ321-221115-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1008 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

095 
WHUS73 KAPX 220818
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
318 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

LMZ344>346-221630-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0041.121122T0818Z-121124T0400Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
318 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-221630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
318 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY. A
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LHZ347-LSZ321-221630-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
318 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

ARNOTT

769 
WHUS73 KAPX 221602
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1102 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

LMZ344>346-230015-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-121124T0400Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1102 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-LSZ321-230015-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1102 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LHZ345-346-348-349-LSZ322-230015-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1102 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-230015-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1102 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY. A
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

750 
WHUS73 KAPX 222116
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

LHZ347-230530-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0041.121123T1500Z-121124T0600Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE GALE
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-230530-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0041.121123T0900Z-121124T0600Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE GALE
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-230530-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0041.121123T1500Z-121124T0600Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-230530-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121124T1000Z/
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WATCH. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-230530-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121123T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-121124T0400Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0023.121123T0900Z-121124T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE GALE WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ344>346-230530-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-121124T0400Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-349-230530-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121124T1000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ322-230530-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-121124T1000Z/
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
416 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1231 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING MAINLY QUIET AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COOL WEATHER AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

STRATUS/FOG CONTINUES TO ERODE IN MOST AREAS...AND SHOULD BE GONE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER TOWARD 19-20Z PER LATEST TRENDS.
HOWEVER...THICK PLUME OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SHROUD PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...AND HAVE AMENDED CLOUD
FCST TO COVER THIS IDEA. THAT LAKE STRATUS MAY PROVE TO BE A REAL
PAIN OVERNIGHT AS IT MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
LOWER...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK BEFORE RAMPING UP CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

LOTS OF FUN TO BE HAD IN THE CLOUD FORECASTING DEPARTMENT TODAY.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS OF THE DAY SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. 12Z APX RAOB BEARS THIS IDEA
OUT WELL...WITH A ROUGHLY 35MB LAYER OF SATURATION BENEATH A
RATHER STOUT INVERSION JUST BELOW 900MB. CLOUD LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES TO BACK SLOWLY WITH TIME MORE SOUTHERLY...HELPING SPREAD
STRATUS BACK INTO A FEW AREAS (MAINLY NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY)
WHERE A FEW HOLES HAD BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST HOUR.

PER SATELLITE TRENDS...SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE...AND LOW SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE TO BELIEVE IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME
FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO MIX OUT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
HELP MATTERS A BIT...BUT WILL NEED TO EXTEND A CLOUDY MENTION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. FOG IS ALSO AN ISSUE...MAINLY ALONG THE M-55
CORRIDOR WHERE OBS/WEBCAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES STILL BELOW 1/4SM.
AS SURFACE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHOULD SEE
VISBYS LIFT UP A BIT...BUT MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCHES OF FOG FOR A
WHILE. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THE GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY HERE IN
A BIT...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO LET IT GO AT 11AM GIVEN
LATEST OBS BUMPING UP TOWARD 1/2-3/4SM THE PAST 30 MINS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE SOLELY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD TRENDS. WON'T
TOUCH THEM JUST YET (AS IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO WARM THINGS UP GIVEN
A WARM START)...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS HOUR WITH NO FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY NECESSARY. STRATUS MOVEMENT HAS PRETTY MUCH
CEASED...WITH EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF DEVELOPMENT JUST NW OF APN/OSC.
THUS...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN SOME FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THE DENSE STUFF WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG/SOUTH OF M-55 AND EAST OF
M-33 AS SLOWLY ERODING STRATUS DECK HAS ALLOWED ENOUGH CLEARING
FOR A QUICK COOLDOWN AND FOG-IN AT CAD-OSC-APN. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLEARING WILL NOT GROW MUCH THROUGH
DAYBREAK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE TVC-GOV IN THE HEADLINE. FOG WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND
NO SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LLEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

WEATHER HAZARDS: LOCALLY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BEYOND THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE STRAITS TONIGHT.

CURRENT OVERVIEW: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY DRAGS A GOLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BACK TO NEWLY-DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA.  AMPLE
LLEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT THIS
HOUR...PROMPTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG...EXP OVER
EASTERN UPPER AN NW LOWER.  EARLY MORNING FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THIS AREA OF STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH...HOWEVER...WHICH FORETELLS DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
OFF THE DECK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THIS MOST
RECENT BOUT OF STRATUS.

TODAY: IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY
WILL CENTER AROUND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE DAY AND THUS IT/S IMPLICATION ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS FOLDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THIS SETTLING TO A LOCATION ALONG THE EAST COAST BY
AFTERNOON.  THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE A SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT
TO TAKE SHAPE WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION.  WITH SOME FLOW FINALLY
DEVELOPING IN THE LLEVELS...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PUSHING THEM
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE 4AM-8AM
PERIOD GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS SHOWING SOME BREAKS TRYING TO REACH MY
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.  THIS HAS LED LDM/RQB DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS.
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS REACH MBL-CAD-HTL DURING THIS
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT WE/LL HAVE STRATUS CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST NOON
WITH RAPID CLEARING BEYOND THIS /OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION/. T9S WARM TO
AROUND +6 BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID 50S...RIGHT IN
THE RANGE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  COULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THIS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THE
LAST TO LEAVE.

TONIGHT:  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MORNING.
CONTINUING BACKING OF THE FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDINESS ALOFT AND YIELD A
MCLEAR...AND MILD NIGHT.  INCREASING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST SPOTS COUPLED OVERNIGHT...THUS KEEPING A LID ON HOW
FAR LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO FALL.  BEST CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF EVENING
DECOUPLING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...WHICH MAY HOLD THE
TITLE OF COLDEST SPOT IN THE CWA FOR YET ANOTHER NIGHT.  EXPECT LOWS
IN THIS AREA TO REACH THE UPPER 30S...WITH READINGS NEAR 40 FOR MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR...AND THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST OF LAKE MICH.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE DISLODGED FROM EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG /MAYBE STRATUS?/
DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ABOVE THE GROUND. RIGHT
NOW...ENOUGH WIND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING DENSE.

THURSDAY: VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON THANKSGIVING WITH IT/S ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW REACHING
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARDS EVENING.  THIS WILL PLACE NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW WITH ONE MORE
WARM DAY ON TAP.  EXPECT A MSUNNY DAY FOR MOST SPOTS...WITH CLOUDS
LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN SURGE OF LLEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH APPROACHING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THUS AM NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WILL MAINTAIN A LATE DAY SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH
THE DAY DRY.  HOW WARM WILL IT GET?  WELL..A DECENT BIT OF SUN ALONG
WITH AMPLE MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD JUST ABOUT TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE
OF T9S AROUND 10C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT
60...WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE OVER DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF NE
LOWER AND NEAR GTV BAY.  SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION
OF POTENTIAL RECORDS.

FINALLY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN...WITH 10-20MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS OVER 25MPH EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

WELL ADVERTISED TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE WINTRY SCENARIO TO END THE
WEEK STILL ON THE DOCKET...AS RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF CURRENT
GULF OF ALASKA LOW BREAKS OFF AND SLICES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS INITIAL WAVE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP THE EXCESSIVELY COLD AIR
FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT WILL NO DOUBT DROP TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SETTING UP SOME
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOWBELTS. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH OF RECENT DAYS LOOKS TO REMAIN A
THING OF THE PAST HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER...WITH
PRETTY GOOD ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A BURGEONING -NAO/-AO
COUPLET. THIS TANDEM WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND ALLOW AT LEAST SOME "DEGREE" OF SUSTAINED COLD
AIR TAP FROM THE CANADIAN TUNDRA. PREDICTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM
POTENTIAL A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE ENDEAVOR...WITH AT LEAST SOME
SUPPORT FOR A "TEXAS PANHANDLE HOOK" TYPE OF SYSTEM HEADING TOWARDS
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (TUESDAY). FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
ON THIS RAPID CHANGEOVER TO WINTER WEATHER...FOCUSING ON INITIAL LAKE
INDUCED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.

THANKSGIVING EVENING IS ABOUT IT FOR THE WARM WEATHER AS AMPLIFYING
WAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATTENDANT SURFACE
REFLECTION LEADING THE CHARGE...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (TIMING BASED OFF
A UKMET/GFS MODEL BLEND...WHICH IS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TOO
FAST AND OPEN NAM-WRF AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TOUCH TOO SLOW
ECMWF). QUICK HITTING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
DURING THE EVENING...WITH BEST COVERAGE HEADING UP EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DRY SLOT LOOKS
AGGRESSIVE...PUNCHING QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. DESPITE COOLING...ANY LAKE RESPONSE WILL BE QUELLED GIVEN
ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR. THAT CHANGES RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING A QUICKER REINTRODUCTION OF DEEP MOISTURE
PINWHEELING EAST ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW. LOOKS LIKE BEST COLD
SIDE DEFORMATION SNOWS WILL MISS OUR AREA JUST TO THE NORTH AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES VICINITY EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO NEAR -10C BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. INITIAL WEST TO WNW FLOW LOOKS TO QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO NNW BEHIND PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH LATER FRIDAY...
WITH THIS FLOW REGIME SETTING UP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. QUICK LOSS OF
BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE PURE LAKE
EFFECT REGIME HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOISTURE
QUICKLY PEELING OUT ABOVE LAKE INFLUENCED H80 INVERSION. STILL...
WITH DURATION OF EVENT AND CLOUD TOP LEVELS WITHIN THE DGZ...COULD
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN FAVORED NNW FLOW AREAS OF BOTH
PENINSULAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH TOO EARLY FOR ANY TYPE OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE LATEST
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS AN MEANS OF EXPRESSING THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT. OTHER STORY WILL BE FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND BRISK WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND MOMENTUM PROPERTIES
OF LES ARGUES FOR CONTINUATION OF LAKE SNOWS SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
INTENSITY TRENDS SHOULD BE DOWNWARD AS MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
THIN AND INVERSION LEVELS FALL. STILL SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY HOW
THINGS UNFOLD SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM TO
SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF BUCKLING UPSTREAM FLOW EVENTUALLY DRIVING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
MUCH TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS...AND WILL
SIMPLY RIDE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR BOTH POP AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
COOL WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY STUCK IN THE 30S SATURDAY RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH APN
BEING THE LAST TO DO SO. THEY SHOULD LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
19Z OR SO...LEAVING JUST SOME LINGERING 5-6SM IN HAZE AT THE
SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A TOUCH GUSTY...BUT WITH PEAK GUSTS
HOLDING UNDER 18 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...BUT
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AN ISSUE AT ALL SITES. WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO SNEAK BACK INTO
SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (TVC/PLN/MBL) AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTENSIFIES. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...WILL
KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN SOMETHING TO WATCH.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS UP AROUND 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

HAZARD POTENTIAL: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON ON
LAKE MICH...LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE OTHER LAKES ON THURSDAY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FROM MANISTEE TO GTLM4 THURSDAY GIVEN SOME LOCAL WIND ENHANCEMENT
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFTS ALL ZONES WITH
ADDITIONAL GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE MICH.  HEADLINES LIKELY DO NOT
END UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND STRENGTHEN.

HEADLINES:  WILL ISSUE SCA/S FOR MBL-GTLM4 WITH THIS PACKAGE...AS
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN BEFORE THE END OF THE TODAY
PERIOD.  WILL RUN THESE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT HOLD OFF FROM RUNNING
THEM FURTHER TO LET LATER SHIFTS REASSESS THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR
GALE HEADLINES.  YOU WILL CERTAINLY SEE THESE SMALL CRAFTS EXPAND
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.

OVERVIEW: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS LOW WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.  ANOTHER APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

RECORD HIGHS ARE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.  A QUICK
LOOK AT THESE RECORDS AND WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING:

HTL RECORD: 59 IN 2010...FORECAST: 59
GLR RECORD: 58 IN 2010...FORECAST: 59
TVC RECORD: 64 IN 1913...FORECAST: 61
APN RECORD: 60 IN 1999...FORECAST: 58
ANJ RECORD: 56 IN 1990...FORECAST: 56
PLN RECORD: 60 IN 1990...FORECAST: 60

THESE ALL APPEAR TO BE IN SOME JEOPARDY...BUT REGARDLESS...IT WILL
BE A VERY WARM HOLIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

THE RECENT WARMTH HAS BROUGHT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT APN BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER /WITH APN LIKELY FOLLOWING SUIT BY
TOMORROW/.  WE CERTAINLY WILL HAVE A COOLDOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN MAY VERY WELL END UP WITH A NEAR NORMAL NOVEMBER
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE...ALBEIT WITH NUMEROUS SWINGS BETWEEN EXTREMES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
CLIMATE...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1120 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
221200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1120 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BRISK WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY IN THE SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF SLICK TRAVEL AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS...ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX (ALL
LOWERCASE)

ARNOTT/LAWRENCE