Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.AVIATION...
A RATHER COMPLEX TAF PACKAGE WITH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. CURRENTLY DHT IS THE ONLY TERMINAL
AT MVFR WITH THE REST AT VFR. HOWEVER CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
FROM MVFR TO VFR AND BACK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE TREND AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. SO FAR
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE SOON...AT LEAST FOR AMA...WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST
NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK. AS FOR DHT AND GUY CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. AS THESE STORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS CEILINGS COULD DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO IFR. HOWEVER LEFT MENTION OF IFR OUT OF PREVAILING
CONDITIONS SINCE MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR DEPICTION OF CONDITIONS. TAF
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012/

DISCUSSION...

..TODAY...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED IN CHECK AND BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND
THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHEN IS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
GOING TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE WELL LEADING UP TO
TODAY...MOST OF THEM DID NOT PICK UP ON THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT
ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA AS THIS IS WHERE BEST DAYTIME
HEATING HAS OCCURRED AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO FORMING IN OUR
CWA BUT STORMS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME OVERCOMING A RELATIVELY STABLE
AIR MASS. BELIEVE STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS
THE ARE LATE TONIGHT.

..TONIGHT...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE TX/NM BORDER STORMS LOOK TO
ENTER OUR AREA A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HAVE PUT SOME FAITH IN THE
HRRR ON HELPING TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE PRECIP WILL OCCUR AS IT
HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THESE STORMS ALSO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AGAIN...A TORNADO
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS
SHOULD QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND
THEM. SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING IF STORMS
OVERNIGHT DECIDE TO POUR ON AN AREA THAT ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DUE TO THE FAST MOTION OF THESE STORMS.

..WEEKEND...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NEAR
THE TX/OK BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AFTER SATURDAY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DRY UP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

..NEXT WEEK...
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AND LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DISTRIBUTED RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND OVERNIGHT MORE SHOWERS SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE PANHANDLES. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/02

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