Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Amarillo, TX

247 
WWUS54 KAMA 112012
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
312 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

TXC341-375-112030-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-120411T2030Z/
MOORE TX-POTTER TX-
312 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN POTTER AND MOORE COUNTIES...

AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MASTERSON...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTH OF
DUMAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3603 10206 3570 10164 3548 10201 3558 10214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 225DEG 15KT 3561 10195

$$

KJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GRIDS TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TO
CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING FOR PRECIP TODAY.
ALSO...ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. UPDATED WIND
GRIDS ALONG WITH SMOKE MANAGEMENT GRIDS IN THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY AND ALLOWS FOR PLENTY
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CARRIED VCTS IN PREVAILINGS GROUPS OF THE THREE TAFS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONED GENERALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z
TODAY AND 00Z THURSDAY...AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR CONVECTION. MAY ALSO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN EARLY MORNING
BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 15Z THURSDAY PRODUCING IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN
LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z THURSDAY. MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TAFS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR LOW CEILINGS AT KGUY.

AVIATION...
STRATUS HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR LEVELS AT KGUY...AND SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL 14Z-15Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES...WITH SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING FROM
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE
SITES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE FROM
21Z-00Z AT KDHT...22Z-01Z AT KAMA...AND 23Z-02Z AT KGUY...WITH A
POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z AT ALL
SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LOWER CEILINGS TO IFR LEVELS AT
KGUY AFTER 03Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...AND A WEAK
/20-30 KT/ LLJ HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY KICKED OUT BY THE NORTHERN
CONVECTION. FARTHER NORTHEAST...A BAND OF STRONGER ELEVATED
CONVECTION STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NORTHERN OK WITHIN A
ZONE OF H85 WAA NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES
TODAY. MAY SEE A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A POTENT MID
/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN CA NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEAM WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. QUITE A BIT OF MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS /AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/ WILL SERVE TO
TEMPER INSTABILITY FROM HIGHER VALUES. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...AND ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG ZONE OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT DRAPED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AS DAYTIME HEATING ERODES THE
CAP...AND MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AT LEAST A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EAST
OUT OF EASTERN NM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THOUGH GIVEN VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...AND SURFACE
FRONT AND POSSIBLY OTHER REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND WHICH MAY
INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS PWATS NEAR 1 INCH. A 40-45 KT LLJ WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN STORMS TONIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE CONVECTION PROPAGATES EASTWARD.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SERVE TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...PROMOTING A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND
ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AS MLCAPES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL AVERAGE 35-45 KTS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES...AND HENCE HOW MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES
ARE IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...BUT THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE. SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE
DRYLINE WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND SRH WILL ALSO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS /OWING LARGELY TO A STRONGER LLJ/.
LCL/S PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE LOWER AS WELL. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...GUSTY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...KEEPING THE DRYLINE
A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO FAR WESTERN OK. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE
DRYLINE MAY RETREAT INTO THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUS HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO THESE FAR
EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE CWA...THEY COULD BE SEVERE. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
CLOSE OFF IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE /AND ATTENDANT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/
EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE MAY
RETREAT INTO THIS AREA. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...WARM...WINDY...AND DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WORK EAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS AND CMC GEM KEEP THE LOW
CLOSED...WHILE THE ECMWF OPENS IT AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST. THE FORMER
TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD LIKELY DRY SLOT THE PANHANDLES...WHILE THE ECMWF
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY/MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS TIME PERIOD. HEIGHT FALLS AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN A
LITTLER FURTHER. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STATE OF FUELS AND RECENT RAINFALL. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS POINT SINCE MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MORE RAIN IS
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO...FUELS ARE GREENING UP IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AND RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT SUNDAY INTO MID
NEXT WEEK...PRECLUDING ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
532 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-112100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
532 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...BUT
SOME THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
934 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             20 ENE TEXLINE          36.49N 102.69W
04/10/2012  E1.00 INCH       DALLAM             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200223

SMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
105 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

OKZ003-TXZ004-005-111900-
BEAVER OK-LIPSCOMB TX-OCHILTREE TX-
105 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR OCHILTREE...LIPSCOMB
AND BEAVER COUNTIES.

AT 100 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLF CREEK
PARK...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERRYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
148 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

TXZ006>008-011-012-111945-
HARTLEY TX-HUTCHINSON TX-MOORE TX-OLDHAM TX-POTTER TX-
148 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR POTTER...OLDHAM...
MOORE...HUTCHINSON AND HARTLEY COUNTIES.

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MASTERSON...OR
ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTH OF DUMAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.