Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Amarillo, TX

278 
WWUS54 KAMA 012336
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

TXC483-012346-
/O.EXP.KAMA.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-120601T2345Z/
WHEELER TX-
636 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WHEELER COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM CDT...

AT 636 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAD EXITED
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3539 10024 3551 10040 3562 10023 3562 10007
      3557 9999 3549 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 315DEG 20KT 3545 10010

$$

NF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
418 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LOW-/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE DISSIPATED...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 50 DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
THE COMBINATION OF WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS BOOSTED MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE. AS A
RESULT...DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AT
500 MB IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 50
KT...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY...WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS. GIVEN THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 30-35 DEGREES...DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUES UP TO 1300 J/KG...AND LAPS SOUNDING DATA INDICATING AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS INITIALLY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR
COMPLEX EARLY THIS EVENING THAT MARCHES SOUTHEAST. IF THIS OCCURS AND
A WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPS...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE A BIG CONCERN. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS
VERY LOW AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR COMPLEX EVOLVES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT 0-1 KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
15-20 KT LATER THIS EVENING...AN ISOLATED SPINUP CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OR IF ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED. THINK THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY 11 PM AS THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHER TOMORROW WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG...BUT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER WITH VALUES UP TO 35 KT. DESPITE THE
WEAKER SHEAR...IT WILL STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SUPERCELLS...TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES INITIALLY. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION MAY INITIATE
OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD. UP TO
1000 J/K OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER WILL SUPPORT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES...THETA-E
DIFFERENCES UP TO 23 K FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB...AND DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW AGAIN DUE TO THE LARGE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAY HELP MIX THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT
STILL DOESN/T APPEAR TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
A BOISE CITY TO HEREFORD LINE. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDING...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THINK MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE END RESULT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE STRENGTH OF CAPPING
WILL BE A QUESTION MARK EACH DAY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING AT
ALL...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN
25 KT EACH DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT MAY BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH THURSDAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  93  64  97  65 /  80  50  50  20  10
BEAVER OK                  57  87  65  98  69 /  20  20  50  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              58  88  61  98  63 /  20  50  30  10  20
BORGER TX                  64  95  70  95  69 /  80  50  50  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              60  94  61  97  64 /  50  50  50  20   5
CANYON TX                  60  95  64  97  64 /  70  50  50  20   5
CLARENDON TX               65  95  66  97  68 /  80  50  50  20  20
DALHART TX                 57  88  61  98  62 /  20  50  30  10  20
GUYMON OK                  59  90  61  96  67 /  20  40  40  20  20
HEREFORD TX                61  96  64  98  64 /  70  50  50  20   5
LIPSCOMB TX                60  88  66  94  69 /  30  20  50  20  20
PAMPA TX                   60  93  64  94  67 /  80  50  50  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                63  96  65  98  70 /  80  50  50  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              66  95  69 100  71 /  80  50  50  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

EA/JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
421 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-021100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
421 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HEN EGGS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AS A RESULT...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST FAVORED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR LIKELY ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             WHEELER                 35.44N 100.28W
06/01/2012  E1.25 INCH       WHEELER            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200454

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             3 S WASHBURN            35.13N 101.57W
06/01/2012  E3.00 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200455

ABM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
602 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             8 W DARROUZETT          36.45N 100.47W
06/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       LIPSCOMB           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200456

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
612 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             8 W PANHANDLE           35.35N 101.52W
06/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       CARSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200457

KRAUSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             8 SW PANHANDLE          35.26N 101.48W
06/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       CARSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200457

KRAUSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
616 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             12 SW DALHART           35.94N 102.67W
06/01/2012  M1.25 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200458

JACKSON