Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Albany, NY

169 
WWUS41 KALY 120816
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
316 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

VTZ013-014-120930-
/O.CAN.KALY.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120212T1400Z/
BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE
316 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIGHTEN TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...AND WIND
CHILLS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 20 BELOW ZERO CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...AND THE
ADVISORY IS CANCELED.  

$$

NYZ032-033-121400-
/O.CON.KALY.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120212T1400Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
316 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER...AND HAMILTON
  COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...9 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST
BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.  IF
YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

054 
WWUS41 KALY 121411
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
911 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

NYZ032-033-121515-
/O.EXP.KALY.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120212T1400Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
911 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS HAS EXPIRED. WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 BELOW ZERO
IS NO LONGER BEING REACHED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND
USHER ARCTIC AIR IN.  A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THE
THE REGION SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IT WILL TRIGGER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...A MESOSCALE FEATURE WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS THIS EARLY
EVENING.  HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HINT OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN TOWARD 03Z.  EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A LULL IN THE PRECIP COVERAGE BETWEEN 03Z-09Z OVERNIGHT AS THE
COMBINATION OF THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND A BRIEF
WINDOW OF SUBSIDENCE.  SO FOR THIS UPDATE...WE WILL CARRY POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF NY COUNTIES THEN GO DRY FOR THAT PERIOD OF
03-09Z.  PER THE LATEST NAM12/HRRR/RUC13...SEEMS THE BEST TRAJECTORY
FOR LAKE EFFECT SETS UP A LITTLE MORE NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
THIS WOULD LIMIT THE SNOW MIGRATING THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY.  WE
WILL AWAIT FOR THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY EXITED MOST OF RGN. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE A VERY SHARP 500HPA TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE RGN THIS AFTN AND EVNG. IT WILL DRIVE THE ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE RGN WHICH WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING
COASTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF CDFNT FCA
WILL SEE SUNNY INTERVALS THIS AFTN.

MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF FCA...BUT
STRONG SHORT WV WILL RESULT IN SCT -SNSH INTO THE EVNG. LATE TNGT
AND SUN A NW-SE ORIENTED 2SECONDARY CDFNT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH NY.
WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WVS SLIDING SE IN 500HPA TROF OVER
RGN...AND THIS BOUNDARY ALIGNING ACROSS MULTIPLE GRTLKS FOR A TIME
IT IS LIKELY TO FOCUS A SHARP LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS INSTAB REACHES MODERATE...850HPA FLOW FLUCTUATES
290-300 WHICH COULD SEND -SHSN AND MAYBE SQUALLS DOWN THE MHWK VLY
FOR A TIME. IT WILL DIMINISH TWRD EVNG AS INVERSION HT PUSHES FM
10KFT TO 5KFT. TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE BLO NORMALS.

WINDS WILL BCM BRISK TONG HT 10-20KTS...BUT WILL LESSEN AS THE
2NDARY CDFNT INTERACTS WITH THE PREVAILING N-NNW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/NAM/CMC DURING THIS PERIOD.
AT 500HPA CUT OFF TROF IS LIFTING INTO N ATLC. RIDGE AXIS IS
BUILDING FM SE USA TO N GRT PLAINS. MODELS ALL SHOW A WK LK
RESPONSE SIGNAL AS WHAT WAS A CDFNT LIFTS BACK NE THROUGH RGN INTO
QB MON. IT MAY FOCUS SOME -SHSN INTO W FCA OR IS BEING ENHANCED BY
WK WAA. BUT WITH INVERSION HGT AT 5KFT NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN NT
IN WAY OF -SHSN.

MONDAY WITH 500HPA RIDGE AXIS TO OUR W...SFC HIGH SHIFTING TO EAST
COAST SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS AFTER A COLD START.
MONDAY NT SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND 500HPA FLOW RETURNS TO A
ZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVES.

A SERIES OF WEAK 500HPA SHORT WVS APPROACH LATE MON AND TUES WITH
INCRG CLOUDS TUES MORNING. MIDWEEK FINDS FCA IN ANOTHER MODIFIED
MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS THAT HAS TRAVELED ZONALLY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE USA. SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SETS UP SW FLOW W/FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS...AND MAYBE SOME LT PCPN OF VARIOUS FORMS MAINLY DZ OR
FZDZ IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS. NOT MUCH DYNAMICALLY GOING ON...JUST
CLOUDS STUCK UNDER INVERSIONS. TEMPS WELL ABV NORMALS AFTER A
CHILLY START MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A CHALLENGING LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS SEVERAL KEY
SHORT WAVES WERE SITUATED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A DEPARTING WAVE.  MAINLY
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.  EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS AND UPSLOPING CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN ENHANCED CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER.  BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SO ANY SNOW IN THE VALLEYS
SHOULD REDUCE.

THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION.  THE MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

THEN THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
OUR POTENTIAL WAVE...PER THE 1.5PVU TRACE AND H2O VAPOR LOOP
ANALYSIS...WAS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG 45N AND JUST EAST OF 160W.
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION DOES SUGGEST THIS WAVE IS STRONG AS IT
RACES EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC COASTLINE OF NOAM.  NCEP MODEL SUITE
AN INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ALL OFFER A UNIQUE APPROACH THAT WILL HAVE
LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON OUR WEATHER.  THE ECMWF WHICH HAS WAVERED A
BIT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...RETURNS WITH A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST.  THE GFS REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND
FAVORS A STRONGER HUDSON BAY LOW /AND A MORE POSITIVE NAO/.  THE
CANADIAN TAKES THE STRONG BALANCE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES
WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE PENDING EVENT BY ABOUT
1 DAY /ALSO A WARMER SOLUTION/.  PLUMES/ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS
REVEAL A CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS OF FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE.  ALTHOUGH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE ECMWF WHICH A COUPLE
OF THE GFS PERTURBATIONS DO AGREE WITH ITS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION.  SO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND THE
30% THRESHOLDS WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORING
FORECAST OFFICES.  BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS THE
RAIN/SNOW ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR AS WELL.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS SOME LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTION
WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH COLD ADVECTION TAKES
PLACES IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT HAD SLIPPED SOUTH THROUGH KALB AS OFF 2330Z...
HEADED TOWARD KPOU.  KPOU ASOS HAD RECORDED CLR SKIES...BUT BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHATEVER CLEARING WAS OVERHEAD WILL FILL IN TO
AT LEAST BKN RATHER QUICKLY.  NORTHWARD AT THE OTHER TWO AIRPORTS...
ENOUGH DRY AIR HAD INFILTRATED TO RESULT IN A SCT CLOUD NIGHT AS
CIGS ERODE.  EASILY LOOKING AT VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

SFC WINDS ARE THE FOCUS...WITH DAYTIME NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AROUND
15 KTS...AND GUSTS FREQUENTING THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.  WITH PRETTY
UNIFORM WINDS THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN...SHEAR IS OF NO CONCERN.
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PRACTICALLY NO MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO THIS WILL HAVE NO NOTICEABLE IMPACT AT THE
AIRPORTS ON SUNDAY OTHER THAN TO KEEP THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
GOING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.  BRISK DAYTIME.
TUE-WED NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...VFR...CHC PM -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
GAGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

NYZ038-121200-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
422 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. SHOULD
THIS POTENTIAL INCREASE...THEN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WOULD BE
ISSUED.  STAY TUNED TO YOUR LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-121200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
422 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.