Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1028 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AND
IN SOME AREAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES TRACKING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
EAST...AND RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING EAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING OUT OF
THE CATSKILLS...EAST OT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THOUGH...IS OVER LONG ISLAND...CLOSER TO WHERE
THE SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS. CLOUDS HAVE SPREAS ACROSS THE
REGION AND OTHER THAN A FEW FLEETING BRIGHT PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS
OF RAIN...THE REGION SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ALL
AFTERNOON.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMIAN IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS THIS SUMMER AND HIGH FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE...AND THE MAIN LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO THE SOUTH...IT SEEMS ANY
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED IF ANY. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS ARE QUITE LOW...AND THE
SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT AND PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL TOTAL PWAT
SHOWS THE MOST EXTREME VALUES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND NOT
BUILDING NORTH MUCH IF AT ALL.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME URBAN AND STREET FLOODING IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NY DUE TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE UPPER
DEFORMATION AREA OF THE UPPER IMPULSE...AND THAT WILL WORK ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS NOT TOO UNSTABLE...
BUT THE MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS SEEN...BUT
BACKGROUND FLOW HIGHER ALOFT...STEERING THE UPPER IMPULSE SHOWS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING EAST STEADILY.
SO...EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITTY STEERED BY THE
WEAKER MIDLEVEL WINDS COULD BE SLOWER MOVING AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

SO...WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CLOSLEY
CHECK ON THE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FOR FLOOD
POTENTIAL. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT
AXIS SLIDE EAST OF FA BY MID DAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST WITH MLMUCAPES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWEST READINGS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE PCPN WILL LINGER LONGEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE BIG QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO IMPACT ANY OF THE FA MONDAY
NIGHT...THUS THE REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY UTILIZED A 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z/28 HPC MOS
GUIDANCE...AND 00Z/28 GMOS.

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A GENERAL S/SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN SATURDAY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER POPS...AS POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS/TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH DURING THESE
TIMES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE...AND OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS DUE TO CLOUDS...AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CAUSING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO SAT EVENING.

ANY AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THEN...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-18Z/SAT...AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES WITHIN SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS. MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/SUNDAY AT THE TAF
SITES...AS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DECREASE...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THEIR WAKE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
12Z/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE NE TO E AT LESS THAN 8 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
STRONGER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN AM FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AND IN SOME
AREAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 75
PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
EXCLUDING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 11
AM SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A
WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION...A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING EAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND EVEN BACK
BUILD. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...HOWEVER AT TIMES THEY MAY
APPEAR TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY. BY THE TIME THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MUCH OF
THE WATCH AREA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND HUDSON VALLEY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN THREAT OF FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SMALL STREAMS AS
WELL AS POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISE MAY OCCUR ON SOME OF SMALLER MAINSTEM RIVERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE
ONLY DRY DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-291100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1038 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
EXCLUDING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND RAINFALL REPORTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR NEAR BANKFULL
BODIES OF WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA THE SEVERE
WEATHER REPORT FORM ON THE INTERNET OR BY TELEPHONE.

NYZ032-033-291100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
1038 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
AND PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1053 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

NYZ060-061-064>066-281530-
EASTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-
WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
1053 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS
   AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1049 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL OF
1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RHINEBECK AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTH OF STANFORDVILLE BY 1115 AM...
PINE PLAINS BY 1125 AM...
ANCRAM AND 6 MILES WEST OF MILLERTON BY 1130 AM.

LAT...LON 4186 7401 4203 7404 4211 7350 4207 7351
      4205 7349 4200 7349 4187 7350
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 264DEG 18KT 4196 7390

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1135 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

CTZ001-MAZ025-NYZ060-061-065-066-281615-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
1135 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE...DUTCHESS AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 1130 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
THE HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINE PLAINS...OR ABOUT
13 MILES EAST OF RHINEBECK...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MILLERTON AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF COPAKE BY 1150 AM...
FALLS VILLAGE BY 1210 PM...
CANAAN...ASHLEY FALLS...7 MILES SOUTH OF SHEFFIELD AND 8 MILES WEST
OF NORFOLK BY 1215 PM.

LAT...LON 4217 7319 4189 7315 4189 7378 4207 7380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 265DEG 20KT 4199 7366

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

NYZ063>065-281700-
WESTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND
DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
THE HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ELLENVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WALLKILL BY 1230 PM...
PLATTEKILL AND MODENA BY 1245 PM...
7 MILES SOUTH OF NEW PALTZ BY 1250 PM...
MARLBORO...HIGHLAND...6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POUGHKEEPSIE AND 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAPPINGERS FALLS BY 100 PM.

LAT...LON 4158 7396 4158 7405 4160 7407 4161 7412
      4159 7412 4158 7412 4160 7424 4162 7426
      4159 7435 4160 7438 4170 7442 4178 7391
      4154 7387 4153 7399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 262DEG 14KT 4162 7428