Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TUESDAY AND BRIEFLY CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL DEVELOPING WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE
AREA WITHIN A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...WHICH IS BASICALLY THE OLD
FOOTPRINT IN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH IN CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUITE A BIT
MORE THAN THEY HAVE CLIMBED OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 16Z KALB SOUNDING QUITE UNSTABLE BUT LIMITED
DEEP SHEAR. CONVECTION EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING JUST OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR
REGION.

THE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY AND ADVANCING BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIMED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AGAIN...CONVECTION IN CANADA IS ALONG
THESE FEATURES...ENHANCED ALSO BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT. SINCE IT IS TIMED TO TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT
THE FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS COULD SUSTAIN THE STRONG TO SEVERE
NATURE TO THE STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TOMORROW...THEN COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GET QUITE BREEZY...SO WITH INCREASING SUN
THROUGH THE DAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
80S MANY AREAS...SOME 70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THERE SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THAT SHOULD BE
COOLER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BY THURSDAY...THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES REGARDING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION. THERE IS A
DECENT CONSENSUS THAT A QUICK MOVING UPPER IMPULSE...LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD TRACK EAST
THROUGH OUR REGION. THE QUESTIONS ARE ABOUT THE TIMING AND
TRACK...AS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS COULD GET QUITE UNSTABLE WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTION...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS COULD JUST SEE
RAIN OR SHOWERY WEATHER WITHIN A REGION OF STABILITY. UNTIL THE
DETAILS GET CLEARER...INDICATING MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SHAPING
UP...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. TO
BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH OR EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
EXIST...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. FURTHER DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR FRIDAY...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA
OR POSSIBLY PUSH THROUGH...LEAVING EITHER WET OR DRY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. BASED ON UNCERTAINTY CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT VARIOUS TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS POSSIBLE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN A MEAN TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. TIMING THIS FAR OUR DIFFICULT IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...SO WILL BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS COULD END UP BEING COOLER THAN FORECAST IF EXTENDED PERIODS OF
CLOUD COVER OCCUR. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
BASED ON UNKNOWN DEGREE OF SUNSHINE/INSTABILITY AND HAVING OUR AREA
POSSIBLY LOCATED ON THE COOL SIDE OF ANY EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL NY WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER
EAST CENTRAL NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE CELLULAR WITH THIS INITIAL
CONVECTION SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT TERMINALS DUE TO COVERAGE
LIMITATIONS...EXCEPT FOR AT KALB WHERE STORMS ARE ALREADY MORE
NUMEROUS. WILL HANDLE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT AFFECTS TAF SITES
WITH AMENDMENTS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP.

LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD T-STORMS AS A STRONG
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES. WILL MENTION PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING
BETWEEN 03Z-04Z. THERE COULD BE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY T-STORMS EITHER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY AROUND 12Z-13Z TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC MORNING SHRA/TSRA.
TUE NGT-WED NGT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TUESDAY AND BRIEFLY CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE 75 PERCENT
TO 100 PERCENT RANGE. MINIMUM RH VALUES TOMORROW SHOULD BE 45 TO
55 PERCENT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZE...10 TO 20
MPH...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH MOHAWK VALLEY AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15 MPH OR LESS
TOMORROW NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BUT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. RIVER
BASIN AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 2 TO 3 INCHES.
THIS RAIN MIGHT BRING A MINOR RESPONSE ON SOME OF THE SMALLER
RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS BUT THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE MINOR.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH TONIGHT...COULD BRING SOME PONDING TO
PLACES OF POOR DRAINAGE.

AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS THEN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

AN POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP TO OUR SOUTH
AND PRETTY STRONG IMPULSES LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG IT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. STAY
TUNED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-241100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
423 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHENS                  42.27N  73.81W
07/23/2012                   GREENE             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200135

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
528 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NYZ032-033-232200-
HAMILTON NY-NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-
528 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NICKS LAKE
CAMPGROUND...OR ABOUT OVER OLD FORGE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ALGER ISLAND PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 540 PM EDT
LIMEKILN LAKE CAMPGROUND...INLET AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF EAGLE BAY BY
550 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4380 7473 4355 7459 4349 7509 4371 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 255DEG 22KT 4365 7495

JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
535 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

VTZ015-232200-
EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
535 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  WINDHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WESTMINSTER...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELLOWS FALLS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WESTMINSTER AND BELLOWS FALLS BY 600 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4306 7246 4300 7244 4298 7246 4297 7247
      4297 7249 4309 7257 4317 7245 4312 7243
      4308 7243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 232DEG 3KT 4306 7250

JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
537 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NYZ042-232200-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-
537 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCAROON
MANOR PUBLIC CAMPGROUND...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTH OF WARRENSBURG...
AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GRAPHITE BY 600 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4371 7351 4372 7386 4377 7386 4380 7353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 274DEG 16KT 4377 7375

JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
545 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             1 NW LINLITHGO MILLS    42.19N  73.76W
07/23/2012  E0.88 INCH       COLUMBIA           NY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200136

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
549 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ066-232230-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-
549 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  EXTREME SOUTHWEST BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  EXTREME EASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...
AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM CANAAN TO FALLS VILLAGE TO MILLERTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF GREAT BARRINGTON TO 18 MILES WEST OF
TORRINGTON TO 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREAT BARRINGTON...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SHARON BY 555 PM EDT
NORFOLK BY 600 PM EDT
CORNWALL BRIDGE AND CORNWALL BRIDGE POTTERY BY 610 PM EDT
WINSTED AND TORRINGTON BY 620 PM EDT
NEW HARTFORD BY 630 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4149 7345 4193 7357 4197 7350 4215 7330
      4204 7301 4197 7302 4198 7289 4196 7288
      4191 7290 4188 7294 4182 7294 4179 7301
      4164 7298 4156 7310 4149 7338 4151 7340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 297DEG 23KT 4204 7327 4193 7338
          4192 7345 4194 7349

KL