Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Albany, NY

959 
WWUS51 KALY 120005
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NYC035-041-120015-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-120812T0015Z/
HAMILTON NY-FULTON NY-
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FULTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

LAT...LON 4357 7359 4356 7361 4352 7362 4351 7364
      4335 7362 4318 7389 4318 7390 4332 7401
      4358 7396 4360 7377
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 237DEG 30KT 4336 7374

$$

NYC091-113-120015-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-120812T0015Z/
WARREN NY-SARATOGA NY-
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL SARATOGA AND CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEARTOWN...OR NEAR
LAKE GEORGE VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FRENCH MOUNTAIN...QUEENSBURY...CROSBYSIDE AND PARADISE BEACH BY 810
  PM EDT...
  LAKE SUNNYSIDE...ONEIDA CORNERS...CLEVERDALE AND DIAMOND POINT BY
  815 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING 
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS 
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR 
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 4357 7359 4356 7361 4352 7362 4351 7364
      4335 7362 4318 7389 4318 7390 4332 7401
      4358 7396 4360 7377
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 237DEG 30KT 4336 7374

$$

JPV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
706 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC INTO SUNDAY...DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. GRADUALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM...AFTER A WEAKENING TREND EARLIER...SHOWERS WITH
DOWNPOURS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AHEAD OF A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 1000-1500 J/KG STILL EXISTS WITH AMPLE
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
ENVIRONMENT...ALONG WITH HELP FROM A COMPACT JET STREAK LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NY HAS ENABLED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WITH SUNSET APPROACHING THERE SHOULD BE A TREND
FOR THE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR...AS WELL AS DOWNPOURS AND SMALL STREAM...URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT MAY TAKE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WANE DUE TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PERSISTING.

SUNDAY 500HPA CUT OFF EJECTS NE OUT OF REGION...BUT ITS TRAILING
TROF DRIFTS ACROSS THE FCA. LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS JUST TO OUR EAST. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL FORCING. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS TO N AND W OF ALB. TD WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S SO ANOTHER RATHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH AFTN CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS
EASTWARD.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS AS THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE IN THE MODELS
WITH A WEAK WAVE.  OVERALL TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.

MONDAY...OVERALL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
AREA.  A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THIS LOOKS WEAK AT BEST AND WOULD JUST
INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT.  AT THIS TIME... WILL KEEP MONDAY PARTLY
SUNNY WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP.

TUESDAY...WILL START OFF QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS OF NOW...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON KEEPING THE WAVE OPEN. BOTTOM
LINE THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS GFS SHOWING DECENT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP
THURSDAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.  BY FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  WILL
MENTION THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  MOISTURE SPINNING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS KEPT
DEWPOINTS RATHER HIGH...WHICH HAS LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF SOME LOW
STRATUS FOR ALL FOUR TERMINALS THIS MORNING.  WITH THE SUN ALREADY
HAVE RISEN...FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MVFR...WITH
CONDITIONS ALREADY BACK TO VFR AT KALB. OVER THE NEXT TWO
HOURS...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS AS A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC WIND DEVELOPS AND HELPS MIX THE LOWEST PORTION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DAYTIME SOLAR
RADIATION.

THE NEARBY UPPER LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHICH
COULD IMPACT ALL THE TERMINALS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR TODAY...THE SCT SHOWERS COULD
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THESE
SHOWERS IS STILL UNCLEAR...SO WILL ADDRESS WITH A VCSH IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.  KPSF LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...SO WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXTENDED MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME THUNDER AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE ENDED AND SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR.  THE CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVELS MAY LEAD TO RADIATIONAL
FOG AT THE TERMINALS FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME PLACES
/KPSF AND KGFL/ GOING DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
PERSISTENT LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB COULD POSSIBLY PREVENT ANY FOG FROM
OCCURRING THERE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO QUEBEC THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTS
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY.  A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THIS WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

MAX RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH MIN
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. SOME
FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA AND BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. BERKSHIRE COUNTY WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL
FLOODING INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MORE DOWNPOURS MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...NO MAJOR HYDRO PROBLEMS
ANTICIPATED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/JPV
SHORT TERM...VTK
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/VTK
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...VTK
HYDROLOGY...VTK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
219 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-121100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
219 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY.  THE GREATEST HAZARD FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESHIRE                42.56N  73.15W
08/11/2012                   BERKSHIRE          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200183

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESHIRE                42.56N  73.15W
08/11/2012                   BERKSHIRE          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200184

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
553 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAVERACK               42.22N  73.72W
08/11/2012                   COLUMBIA           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RT 9H SOUTH OF RT 66

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200185

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
557 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AUSTERLITZ              42.32N  73.47W
08/11/2012                   COLUMBIA           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200186

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
611 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NYZ039-040-082-112245-
MONTGOMERY NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
611 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 608 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EPHRATAH...OR ABOUT OVER CANAJOHARIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FONDA BY 620 PM EDT
JOHNSTOWN BY 625 PM EDT
GLOVERSVILLE...CAROGA LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAROGA LAKE BY 635 PM EDT
MAYFIELD...7 MILES WEST OF CRANBERRY CREEK AND 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BROADALBIN BY 645 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4324 7442 4324 7433 4321 7431 4323 7422
      4324 7423 4325 7420 4325 7414 4311 7412
      4285 7448 4295 7468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 217DEG 20KT 4297 7450

SNYDER/KOLECI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NYZ033-039-041-042-050-082-083-112330-
HAMILTON NY-NORTHERN WARREN NY-SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN FULTON NY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
656 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 655 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 40 MPH AND
HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WELLS TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRANBERRY CREEK...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPECULATOR TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF AMSTERDAM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
EDINBURG BY 705 PM EDT
DAY CENTER BY 715 PM EDT
CORINTH AND LAKE LUZERNE-HADLEY BY 730 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4322 7376 4298 7412 4298 7415 4335 7435
      4368 7399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 215DEG 27KT 4340 7424 4304 7406

SNYDER/KOLECI