Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Albany, NY

870 
WWUS51 KALY 011743
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

CTC005-NYC027-011815-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-120701T1815Z/
LITCHFIELD CT-DUTCHESS NY-
143 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL DUTCHESS AND WEST CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR AMENIA...OR 18 MILES EAST OF RHINEBECK...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MITCHELTOWN...SHARON...MUDGETOWN AND ELLSWORTH BY 150 PM EDT...
  CALHOUN CORNERS BY 155 PM EDT...
  EMMONS CORNERS...CORNWALL CENTER...WEST CORNWALL AND HITCHCOCK
  CORNERS BY 200 PM EDT...
  NORTH CORNWALL BY 205 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN CLINTON CORNERS  
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 4177 7370 4194 7370 4191 7329 4176 7330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 270DEG 28KT 4186 7354

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOURTH OF JULY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ULSTER...DUTCHESS...LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
LATEST LAPS/SPC-MESO WINDOW SUGGESTS SBCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000
J/KG AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST.  IN ADDITION...H2O
VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY.  LATEST RAP/HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS POINT TOWARD A
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE CATSKILLS AND QUICKLY TRACKING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DIVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION WHERE
WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHC-CHC POPS AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID INCREASE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE REGION...HOWEVER THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON
MONDAY LIMITING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND HEAD DOWN THE
EAST SLIDE WITH SOME RIDGING BEING INDUCED ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD
OF IT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SO HAVE KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCE POPS BACK
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AGAIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO HAVE GONE WITH IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH NY AND NEW ENGLAND GETTING INTO A
WARM SECTOR WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT FOLLOWING. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...AND
ENSEMBLES INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
/IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES/ FOR A SHORT TIME.  THE COLD FRONT...AND A
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW MAY FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION AND SFC HEATING.  THE LATEST GFS DOES INDICATE
POTENTIALLY LARGE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD.  AGAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE NIGHTFALL BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...QUIET STRETCH FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.
THE BROAD H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN...CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY/MIDWEST WITH AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.
H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO 17 TO 19C WITH SOME L90S POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE SAGGING SOUTH FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AND THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS CHALLENGED BRINGING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.  SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE USED IN THE GRIDS
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM WITH
PCPN STILL BELOW NORMAL /THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY CONVECTION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY/.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS...AND
PERHAPS A SHOWER CLOSE TO KGFL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SFC TROUGH NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR KPOU THIS AFTERNOON.  A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED THERE FROM 18Z-21Z.

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. SOME SCT CUMULUS...AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND CLEAR THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST
TO FORM NEAR KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W/SW AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING. THEY
WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW IN THE EARLY PM AT AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.  THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT FROM THE N/NW.

OUTLOOK...
MON AM...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON PM-MON NIGHT...VFR/MVFR...ISOLD-SCT -SHRAS/-TSRAS.
TUE...VFR...ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRAS.
WED...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA/-TSRAS.
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FOURTH OF JULY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 85 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS WITH  MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK COULD PRODUCE A LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOUR...BUT LITTLE OR NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE JUNE 2012 MONTHLY CLIMATE REPORTS (CLM) FOR ALBANY...GLENS
FALLS... POUGHKEEPSIE...BENNINGTON AND PITTSFIELD HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE FOR DETAILS AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ALY  (ALL LOWER CASE)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...BGM/IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-021100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
1240 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND
THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP
WILL MOVE FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOURTH OF
JULY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084-VTZ013>015-
021100-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1240 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK EXCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOURTH OF
JULY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.