River Flood Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY

392 
WGUS81 KALY 281949
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
249 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

NYC043-049-282019-
/O.CAN.KALY.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120128T1949Z/
/MCKN6.N.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
249 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER.
* AT 2 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET. THE RIVER LEVEL IS
  RECEDING AS THE ICE JAM NEXT TO THE BRIDGE HAS BROKEN AND WATER
  IS NOW FLOWING FREELY UNDER THE BRIDGE.  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...THE RIVER IS CLOSE TO BANKFULL.

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       8 PM  2 AM  8 AM  2 PM  8 PM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   SAT   SUN   SUN   SUN   SUN

MOOSE RIVER
  MCKEEVER      12.0   10.5 SAT 02 PM   9.9   9.0   8.3   7.7   7.0

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL FEATURE A PARADE OF WEAK FAST MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS...PASSING THROUGH EVERY 18-24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF FAIR WEATHER...AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...AND SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM...CLOUDY AND RATHER MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FA WITH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS ALREADY ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND ALSO INCREASED POPS...QPF
AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE POTENT
WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE THAT IS STARTING TO ARRIVE.

CLOUDS STILL SLOWLY ERODING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
SPREADING NORTHEAST VERY RAPIDLY...SO THERE MAY BE A SHRINKING
WINDOW OF TIME WHEN SOME AREAS WILL SEE SUN. SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO BE A SLIGHT BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC. HARD TO SAY IF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME PERIODS OF FILTERED SUN. AGAIN...SLIGHT TREND TOWARD A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AND SHAVED A DEGREE OR SO OFF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PREV AFD BELOW...

CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND AFTER
SUNRISE...THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY STREAMING RAPIDLY EAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. BY SUNSET...THE REGION SHOULD
BE CLOUDY AGAIN...AND SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO WESTERN AREAS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH TODAY...AND WITH
SUCH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO START FROM THIS MORNING...
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE INTO THE 40S...AS LONG AS WE DO GET SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS OF SUN FOR SOME OF THE DAYTIME.

TONIGHT...QUICK NORTHERN STEAM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH WITH SOME LAKE
MOISTURE. SO SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MAYBE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER AND FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT THE REST OF THE REGION.
ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT...A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT... BUT GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE WEATHER JUST WAIT AROUND 18 OR SO HOURS AND
IT WILL CHANGE. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN A FAST WESTERLY
500HPA FLOW...WHICH INITIALLY CARVES A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...ALLOWING A SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...THEN
QUICKLY LIFTS OUT.

SUNDAY STARTS WITH A CYCLONIC 500HPA OVER THE EASTERN US AND
CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE TROF. AT THE
SFC THE DAY BEINGS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THE COAST WHICH
QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NEXT 500HPA
SHORT WAVE RACES TO THE REGION INCRG CLOUDS AND DRIVING A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN SUN NT AND A SECONDARY CDFNT TWRD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF -SHSN. THE SECONDARY CDFNT WILL
ACT TO FOCUS AND ENHANCE A LK EFFECT SNOW BAND INTO THE MHWK VLY
AND TUG HILL LATE SUNDAY NT INTO MONDAY. OTHER THAN A BRIEF
RESPONSE OFF THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...AND OFFSHORE BY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES THE TROF ALONG THE EAST WILL GIVE WAY TO
500HPA RIDGING IN THE EASTERN USA. IN RESPONSE FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ENSUE WITH A WMFNT DEVELOPING NR DULUTH TO NORFOLK. THE OVERRUNNING
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF -SN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BY
TUESDAY THE WMFNT WILL STALL FM SSM-ALB...WHERE IT WILL LINGER
INTO WED. ANOTHER SURGE OF PCPN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
STORM ORGANIZES IN THE GRT PLAINS AND LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER
GRTLKS. IT WILL ENHANCE WAA ACROSS THIS FRONT.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF...THE ONLY DIFFS
ARE GEM TAKES WMFNT FURTHER N ON TUES...AND DOESN'T SUGGEST A
SECONDARY CDFNT SUN NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAST FLOW AND FAST MOVING SYSTEMS. THE OTHER CHANGE IS THE LATE
WEEK STORM HAS VANISHED FROM THE 00UTC MODEL SUITE..OR ENDED WELL
OFFSHORE.

SFC LOW MOVES FM UPR GRTLKS TO OFF MARITIMES WEDNESDAY AND THU. IT
DRAGS A WMFNT AND 2 CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN AND IS ACCOMP BY RATHER
SHARP STRONG H500 SHORT WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO FCA TO END
THE PERIOD.

GMOS USED TO POPULATED EFP. MINOR CHANGES MADE OTHERWISE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILING AROUND 3500-4000 FEET AT KGFL AND KALB THROUGH ABOUT
MID MORNING...AND SHOULD BREAK UP AFTER 15Z-16Z...REPLACED BY A
CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH AS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND QUITE
LIGHT...IF IT EVEN OCCURS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BY 15Z-
16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHSN.
SUN/SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHSN.
MON-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS REMAIN HIGH AFTER THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION BUT ARE RECEDING. MAIN STEM RIVER HAVE SEEN
WITHIN BANK RISES OF ONE TO THREE FEET.

AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED IN THE FULTON CREEK NEAR ROUTE 5S IN THE
TOWN OF MOHAWK IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AT THIS TIME. THE CANAJOHARIE CREEK
IN CANAJOHARIE HAS ICE EFFECTS AND REMAINS IN THE ALERT STAGE.
ELSEWHERE...KAST BRIDGE ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER RIVER IS HOVERING
ALONG THE ALERT STAGE...AS WELL AS WILLIAMSTOWN ON THE HOOSIC
RIVER...AND GRANVILLE ALONG THE METTAWEE RIVER. WE EXPECT THESE
FLOWS TO LOWER THIS EVENING...AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK BELOW
FREEZING.

A COUPLE OF CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE COMMON
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A FEW INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-291200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
723 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.