Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2012

Lake Effect Snow Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY

January 1, 2012Hamilton County, Herkimer County, New York

NWS Albany, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Jan 1, 2012, 4:02 AM EST for Hamilton County, Herkimer County, New York. It took effect at Jan 2, 2012, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 25 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2012, 4:02 AM EST (09:02 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 2, 2012, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 3, 2012, 12:33 AM EST
In force
25 hr
Issued by
NWS Albany, NY

Counties Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 68 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
724 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
68 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

473 
WWUS41 KALY 010902
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ032-012215-
/O.UPG.KALY.LE.A.0002.120102T0500Z-120102T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KALY.LE.W.0001.120102T0500Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE
402 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
  MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS
  MONDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NYZ033-012215-
/O.NEW.KALY.LE.W.0001.120102T0500Z-120103T0500Z/
HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SPECULATOR
402 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...HAMILTON COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN
  PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
  MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS
  MONDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
7 follow-up statements
046 
WWUS41 KALY 011121
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
621 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ032-033-012215-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0001.120102T0500Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
621 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
  MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S...FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS
  MONDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
303 
WWUS41 KALY 012123
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ032-033-021000-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0001.120102T0500Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
423 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S...FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS INTO
  THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NYZ042-021000-
/O.NEW.KALY.LE.Y.0001.120102T0500Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARRENSBURG
423 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS
  INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

$$

NYZ038-021000-
/O.NEW.KALY.LE.A.0001.120102T2300Z-120103T1500Z/
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...
MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE
423 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
  MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RISING INTO THE MID TEENS ON TUESDAY. 

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF
SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
458 
WWUS41 KALY 020329
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ032-033-021000-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0001.120102T0500Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST
  ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 28.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S...FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS INTO
  THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NYZ042-021000-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.Y.0001.120102T0500Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARRENSBURG
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS
  INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

$$

NYZ038-021000-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.A.0001.120102T2300Z-120103T1500Z/
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...
MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. 

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT AND
  ONLY RISING INTO THE MID TEENS ON TUESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF
SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
905 
WWUS41 KALY 020929
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NYZ032-033-022100-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
429 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MIDDAY
  INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...STARTING AROUND 30 DEGREES...FALLING THROUGH THE
  20S BY LATE TODAY AND INTO THE TEENS THROUGH EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NYZ042-022100-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARRENSBURG
429 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...STARTING OUT AROUND FREEZING...BUT THEN FALLING
  INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON AND TEENS DURING THE EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

$$

NYZ038-022100-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.A.0001.120102T2300Z-120103T1500Z/
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...
MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE
429 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 7
  INCHES.  

* TIMING...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. 

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS.

* VISIBILITIES...POSSIBLY UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND
  BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF
SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
912 
WWUS41 KALY 022057
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NYZ038-031000-
/O.UPG.KALY.LE.A.0001.120102T2300Z-120103T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KALY.LE.W.0001.120102T2300Z-120103T1500Z/
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...
MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE
357 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* TIMING...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NYZ032-033-030500-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
357 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
  CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NYZ082-031000-
/O.EXB.KALY.LE.Y.0001.120102T2300Z-120103T1500Z/
NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
357 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

$$

NYZ042-030500-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARRENSBURG
357 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
  CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

$$
038 
WWUS41 KALY 030255
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

NYZ032-033-030400-
/O.CAN.KALY.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
955 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE REGION BUT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$

NYZ042-030400-
/O.CAN.KALY.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T0500Z/
NORTHERN WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARRENSBURG
955 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY.

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE REGION BUT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$

NYZ038-031100-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T1500Z/
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...
MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE
955 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* TIMING...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES.  TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NYZ082-031100-
/O.CON.KALY.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T1500Z/
NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
955 PM EST MON JAN 2 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
  DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING 
  SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

$$
119 
WWUS41 KALY 030533
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012


NYZ038-030645-
/O.CAN.KALY.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T1500Z/
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...
MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE
1233 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER. 

THE BAND OF SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND HAS
BECOME FRAGMENTED. WHILE THERE STILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...PROJECTED SNOW FALL AMOUNTS WILL
FALL SHORT OF WARNING OR EVEN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE STILL WILL BE
ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW
COULD STILL MAKE TRAVEL TRICKY IN A FEW PLACES SO CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION IF DRIVING IN THIS AREA TONIGHT.

$$

NYZ082-030645-
/O.CAN.KALY.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120103T1500Z/
NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
1233 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE BAND OF SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND HAS
BECOME FRAGMENTED. WHILE THERE STILL WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SNOW BANDS OVERNIGHT ...ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL
SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Jan 1, 12:48 AM EST, 3 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 1, 12:48 AM EST, 3 hours 14 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING BUT
THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT. THE FIRST DAY OF 2012 WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILD WITH A PRETTY VIGOROUS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR BY MONDAY
AND MUCH COLDER AIR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...AND HAVE
ACTUALLY EXPANDED S AND E TO ENCOMPASS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT REGION. AREAS OF FOG ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH THE FOG MAY TEND TO BECOME
MORE PATCHY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DEEPENING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
ABOVE. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED IN AREA RADARS AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF THIS THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORTUNATELY...MESONET/SFC OBS
INDICATE TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO AT THIS TIME...NO MENTION OF -FZDZ...ALTHOUGH WILL
KEEP CLOSE EYE ON THIS...ESP FOR NORTHERNMOST HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT THEM TO ONLY FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES IN
MOST PLACES THROUGH DAYBREAK...PERHAPS EVEN LESS IN VALLEY REGIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

AS OF 915 PM...OUT OF NOWHERE...A BREEZE NOTED AT THE ALBANY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THERE WAS NEVER REALLY ANY BREEZE AT
KRME...IN FACT THEY WERE SOCKED IN WITH FOG.

THE BREEZE HAS RESULTED IN ANY FOG IN THE IMMEDIATE TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BE DISSIPATED. EARLIER WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS
DECISION.

FOR THIS UPDATE...STILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE AS WE BELIEVE
ANY BREEZE WILL LIKELY DIE OFF AND ALLOW FOG TO REFORM EVEN IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR.

WE DID RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT THREE DEGREES BASED ON THE FACT THAT
TEMPERATURES HAVE HALTED ANY DOWNFALL AND IN FACT IN SOME CASES HAVE
RISEN BACK INTO THE 40S. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S ABOVE FREEZING.

HAPPY NEAR YEAR TO ALL!

************PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST***********

AS OF 830 PM...DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THIS WAS BASED ON THE 11.9U-3.9U IFR SAT PIX
INDICATING LOTS OF FOG IN THIS AREA AS DID METARS AND EVEN GROUND
REPORTS. INVERSION LIKELY NOT TO MIX OUT OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THE INVERSION LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN.

ELSEWHERE ...NO FOG ADVISORIES. WE WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF ONE IS
NEEDED LATER ON. THERE IS SOME BREEZE OUT TO THE WEST NEAR KSYR
BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THIS BREEZE TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. CONFIDENCE ON THIS EITHER WAY IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIPPED A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION...STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. WILL NOT TINKER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE START OF THE NEW YEAR THE WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING AS A
COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COLDER ARCTIC
AIR. WE WILL EXPERIENCE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND ONTARIO/QUEBEC CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SWEEPING
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLDER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN ON BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS.
UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FLOW WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT  SNOWS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
MOST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE LOCAL INLAND LAKE
EXTENT TOOL HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN A
PORTION OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY SO HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH FOR MONDAY. DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY
SNOW INTO THE HAMILTON COUNTY.

A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OPENING THE DOOR TO THE REAL ARCTIC AIR AND CAUSE THE
FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT
SOUTHWARD AND CHANCES INCREASE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES.
ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY
CAUSING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SHIFT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WHAT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE YOUNG WINTER SEASON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THE WIND WILL SLACKEN AND THE SKY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD....ZERO TO 10
BELOW HIGHER TERRAIN AND VALLEYS AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP TO AS LOW AS
-20! AS COLD AS THIS IS...WE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH ANY RECORD
LOWS THAT NIGHT.

SINCE WE WILL STILL BE IN A POSITIVE NAO REGIME (HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER ICELAND)...THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE BITTER COLD TO BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL...BUT AT
LEAST RECOVER TO MOSTLY THE 20S...TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESS
REALLY COMMENCES...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE...AND THERE COULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THIS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY TYPE OF SNOWSTORM.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS...MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...TOUCHING 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY...30S MOST
OTHER PLACES. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

BY SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE AIR BEHIND
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ONE WE
WILL BE DEALING ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL...VFR AT KALB AND MVFR AT KPOU AT 05Z AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT. VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH LITTLE WIND FLOW EXCEPT AT KALB AND TEMPS
HOVERING IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL KEEP FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE FOG WILL BE DENSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT KGFL AND OCCASIONALLY DENE AT KPOU WHILE KALB WILL SOME
MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT ONCE WINDS START TO DIMINISH. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 15Z TODAY WITH CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING VFR. BY MID
EVENING SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AT KGFL MIXING WITH SNOW AS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WHILE KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KTS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT KALB WHEN THEY START TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY BEFORE INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH AND THEN TURNING SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING BECOMING GUSTY
DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRASN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON NGT-TUE...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHSN.
TUE NT-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU...VFR. SCHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TO START OFF THE NEW YEAR. ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AS A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES...BRISK
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF ICE ON MANY BODIES OF
WATER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041>043-
     050-083-084.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032.
MA...NONE.
VT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/IAA
NEAR TERM...KL/HWJIV/IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...11/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 8:39 PM EST, 7 hours 23 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
839 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

NYZ032-011200-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-
839 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ033-038>040-082-011200-
HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN FULTON-
839 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IN THE WAKE OF A POWERFUL
STORM SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ041>043-050-083-084-VTZ013>015-011200-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
839 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LAKE GEORGE...SARATOGA
REGION EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047>049-051>054-058>061-063>066-011200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
839 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE CAPITAL REGION OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Albany, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 31, 8:22 PM ESTDense Fog AdvisoryALYSaratoga, Warren, Washington10 hr
Jan 1, 4:23 PM ESTLake Effect Snow WatchALYHerkimer24 hr
Jan 1, 4:23 PM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryALYFulton, Warren32 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2012Every lake effect snow warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.