Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A WARM...HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN NE NC. ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND PERIPHERY OF
LOW TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
OBSERVED A SLIGHT MOISTURE SURGE MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER UP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES. WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH CAPE
VALUE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG AND LI GREATER THAN -8... WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GOING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO WEAK STORM
MOTION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WHILE FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 14K FT...STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE SIZED HAIL. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS EASTERN NC. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STUBBORN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PARK OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE PHASING WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. VORT MAX WILL TRACK THROUGH WV FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO
MD/SOUTHERN PA FRIDAY EVENING PLACING BEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS. THERE ALSO EXIST SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT COULD ALSO HELP ENHANCE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL LOCATE FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL NORTH OF FA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW LEE TROF AND ENUF MOISTURE ARND REGION TO KEEP CHC
POPS MON/TUE. MOISTURE SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WED SO BEST CHC
POPS WILL SHIFT ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA. CHC POPS THU AS COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS REGION. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS IN THE U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THU AFTN/EVENING. STORMS
ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS
FRI MORNING. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FRI AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTNS THROUGH MON WITH
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS AS S-SW WND FLOW ARND OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES THRU THE
WEEKEND. ONLY THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN SCT CONVECTION
WHICH IS HANDLED THROUGH STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS. SOME INCREASE IN
P-GRDNT LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS OUT NR
20 NM MAY RERACH 5 FT. OTW...WINDS WINDS BELOW 20 KTS WITH 2-3 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DATA FOR JULY AVG TEMPERATURE:

RICHMOND:  82.7 F...2ND WARMEST ON RECORD.
NORFOLK:   82.5 F...6TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
SALISBURY: 82.8 F...WARMEST ON RECORD.

SEE PNSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A FAILED AZIMUTH MOTOR. PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED. HOWEVER, REPAIRS MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO COMPLETE. RETURN
TO SERVICE IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME. FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE
PASSED ALONG AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

MDZ025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>062-064>069-072>079-
084>100-032200-
MARYLAND BEACHES-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-032200-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ063-070-071-080>083-032200-
HANOVER-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>024-032200-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LSA