Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG
BOUNDARIES ALONG THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN RAPID TO DEVELOP PRODUCING INTENSE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT STORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WILL BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS...INTENSE
LIGHTING AND HEAVY RAIN. MLCAPE IS RUNNING AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NCAPE AROUND 0.2 SUGGESTING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROMOTING RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO WEAK STEERING
CURRENT STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOWLY RESULTING IN MERGERS AND
OUTFLOW DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND
LIGHTNING ISOLATED AREAS OF FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE TWO
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE FIRST MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 PM. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S IN THE WEST WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST AND SOUTH BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED
AND STALLING OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NC. WILL MAINTAIN A
20-30% POPS ACRS XTRM SE VA/NE NC ON SAT. CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF VA AND MD SAT. HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SUN AFTN ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT JUST A SLGT CHC
OF SHOWERS SUN ACRS EXTREME SE VA/NE NC (INVOF DISSIPATING
FRONT)...AND FAR WNW PORTION OF FA (AS WK TROUGH APPROACHES FM THE
NW). EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHIFTS BACK TO ONE FAVORING A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY
CANADA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFIES/PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NE STATES TUE-THU. SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE
AREA ON MON...WITH ONE LAST VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT/HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S. WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALL
AREAS DURING CLIMO FAVORED AFTN-EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME (ALTHOUGH
CAPPING AT 30% FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT). GENLY A
COOLER/DRIER SETUP TUE-THU...LATEST MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
ANY GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVG FOR LATE JUNE W/ HIGHS MAINLY 80-85 AND LOWS 55-60 INLAND...AND
IN THE 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE RADAR NOW...NOT AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
YET...BUT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THEM WILL EVENTUALLY. HAVE ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT KPHF AND KSBY AFTER 20Z AS THESE SITES ARE
CLOSEST TO CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THAT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...REALLY TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS INTO THE
TAFS...WENT W/ A VCTS AT KRIC...AND NO TSTMS AT KORF/KECG AS BULK OF
ACTIVITY MAY BE AFTER THE 1ST 6 HRS. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING...AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY
AT KORF/KECG. WINDS HIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER 06-12Z/SAT W/ CLEARING
SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH GENLY
QUIET CONDITIONS. NEXT FRONT WILL BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
MON...WITH VFR/DRY WX ANTICIPATED TUE-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN EFFECT W/ SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY...SEAS GENLY
AVERAGING 2-3 FT OR LESS AND WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT IN THE BAY (1-2 FT
AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT TO THE NW OCCURS
SAT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT IS TOO WEAK FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KT SAT MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE
BOUNDARY WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING BY AFTN. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT
W/ STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE WATERS MON INTO EARLY TUE. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN INTO
MON...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUE AS FLOW TURNS NW
AND COOLER AIR SURGES DOWN ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JO
NEAR TERM...JO
SHORT TERM...JO/ALB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...JDM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>094-096>100-231830-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
224 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-231830-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
224 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN...INTENSE LIGHTNING...AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD.

ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654-656-VAZ095-231830-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
224 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVER...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD.

ANZ633-658-231830-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
224 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LKB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DELTAVILLE              37.56N  76.33W
06/22/2012                   MIDDLESEX          VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN AROUND DELTAVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200323

JO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
331 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VAZ049-063-064-074-222030-
CAROLINE VA-ESSEX VA-HANOVER VA-LOUISA VA-
331 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CAROLINE COUNTY...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF PORT ROYAL TO MINERAL...OR
FROM 13 MILES WEST OF COLONIAL BEACH TO MINERAL...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BUMPASS AROUND 420 PM EDT...
  PORT ROYAL AROUND 430 PM EDT...

SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN OCCUR IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR
AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS CAN CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3825 7723 3819 7724 3821 7722 3817 7717
      3816 7707 3810 7704 3783 7784 3799 7796
      3807 7778 3802 7772 3800 7764 3822 7741
      3825 7732 3823 7728 3826 7726

JFOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VAZ068-069-222045-
AMELIA-POWHATAN-
344 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS AMELIA AND POWHATAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 343 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM TAMWORTH TO RAINES TAVERN...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TRENHOLM...
HATCHERS...TOBACCOVILLE...LAKE POWHATAN...MORVEN...JEFFERSON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3744 7818 3746 7813 3765 7808 3762 7796
      3764 7794 3767 7796 3769 7792 3760 7781
      3761 7777 3759 7772 3742 7784 3741 7787
      3736 7788 3724 7796 3729 7823 3737 7824

ORROCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VAZ064-222045-
CAROLINE-
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CAROLINE COUNTY THROUGH 445
PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RAPPAHANNOCK ACADEMY TO
GOLANSVILLE....MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BURRUSS CORNER...
AND...BOWLING GREEN...FORT A.P. HILL...PORT ROYAL...AND...PENOLA...
DAWN...SPARTA...GETHER.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3823 7728 3825 7728 3825 7722 3819 7725
      3821 7722 3816 7712 3813 7711 3812 7714
      3807 7717 3804 7712 3797 7711 3795 7718
      3789 7718 3791 7724 3779 7734 3778 7740
      3788 7743 3791 7751 3814 7749 3825 7736

ORROCK